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I'm sort of surprised no one has posted this yet.
What we know so far.
Ipsos-Reid, CTV, May 21
Libs 35%
Tories 26%
NDP 18%
Greens 5%
In Quebec
Bloc 50%
Libs 28%
NDP 8%
Tories 7%
Undecided not reported
Ipsos-Reid should have the Liberals well out of majority country, but for no other party topping 30% they are predicting a range for the Liberals that would result in a majority.
However, if NDP and Tory support is concentrated enough there could be an upset. Chop 20 seats off the Liberals in Ontario, and 10 in Quebec, and we are looking at a minority government. Obviously then, rural Ontario for the Conservatives and the areas open to NDP support are the critical battlegrounds.
Some things that the pundits are ignoring, mostly, but that could be interesting. My money would be on a slightly better showing for the Tories and NDP in Quebec than the polls show now. I'd look for 2 or 3 Tories and maybe an NDP candidate to win. The word is volatile. A lot could happen in Quebec and Ontario in the next 5 weeks.
Also, the good people of BC are completely capable of rewarding the Greens with their first MP ever. Again, volatile. People are PO'ed and a Green MP is just the sort of thing that some riding in BC might pick as an answer.
Other factors. With new election finance laws coming into effect where each party receives modest funding per vote cast for them, there is no such thing as a meaningless vote any longer. Sure, some kind of proportional representation might be better, but at least the fringe parties, and the wanabe national parties who aren't there yet, have a reason to give supporters to show up and cast a ballot. That's a drum the Greens are being wise to bang on.
Quotes of the day:
Harper's idea for a new Liberal slogan: "Tax me, I'm Canadian."
Layton on Martin and democratic reform (paraphrased): The Liberals should go for the 2010 Olympics. Martin could save a bunch by simply appointing the medal winners.
What we know so far.
Ipsos-Reid, CTV, May 21
Libs 35%
Tories 26%
NDP 18%
Greens 5%
In Quebec
Bloc 50%
Libs 28%
NDP 8%
Tories 7%
Undecided not reported
Ipsos-Reid should have the Liberals well out of majority country, but for no other party topping 30% they are predicting a range for the Liberals that would result in a majority.
However, if NDP and Tory support is concentrated enough there could be an upset. Chop 20 seats off the Liberals in Ontario, and 10 in Quebec, and we are looking at a minority government. Obviously then, rural Ontario for the Conservatives and the areas open to NDP support are the critical battlegrounds.
Some things that the pundits are ignoring, mostly, but that could be interesting. My money would be on a slightly better showing for the Tories and NDP in Quebec than the polls show now. I'd look for 2 or 3 Tories and maybe an NDP candidate to win. The word is volatile. A lot could happen in Quebec and Ontario in the next 5 weeks.
Also, the good people of BC are completely capable of rewarding the Greens with their first MP ever. Again, volatile. People are PO'ed and a Green MP is just the sort of thing that some riding in BC might pick as an answer.
Other factors. With new election finance laws coming into effect where each party receives modest funding per vote cast for them, there is no such thing as a meaningless vote any longer. Sure, some kind of proportional representation might be better, but at least the fringe parties, and the wanabe national parties who aren't there yet, have a reason to give supporters to show up and cast a ballot. That's a drum the Greens are being wise to bang on.
Quotes of the day:
Harper's idea for a new Liberal slogan: "Tax me, I'm Canadian."
Layton on Martin and democratic reform (paraphrased): The Liberals should go for the 2010 Olympics. Martin could save a bunch by simply appointing the medal winners.
I get a little red x when I try to call up the vancouver map.
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