Taiwan tells China to piss off...

[Q Classic]

so will we see a taiwanese girl blowing herself up in the forbidden city?

[TCO]

The whole thing is silly. Taiwant should declare independence and Israel should annex the West Bank. Let's live in the real world. China won't do ****.

[Ned]

TCO, I doubt that Taiwan will declare independence. However, I am a bit more pessimistic about what China would do if they did.

[David Floyd]

I'm not sure China COULD do anything, other than massive missile bombardments of Taiwan. And doing that would sorta defeat the purpose of going to war in the first place - sure, you probably destroy Taiwan, but in the process wreck a major trading partner, and EVEN IF you are able to re-annex Taiwan, you have a multi-billion dollar rebuilding program.

[Ned]

David, the last thing they would do is use a massive missle pummeling. They would invade and take Taiwan with as minimum loss of life and property as possible.

[David Floyd]

Right, but that's my point - the PRC does NOT have enough amphibious assets to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan's ground forces are probably sufficient to overwhelm any PRC landing, before the PRC can reinforce it.

The ROC also has a MASSIVE air defense belt, that would severely hamper PRC air strikes.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Nah, it's time to drink now. To Taiwanese independence, of course...

In the history of Taiwan, they have never been a part of China. They should be the Country of Taiwan.

Read their history.

Joseph

[Ned]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Right, but that's my point - the PRC does NOT have enough amphibious assets to launch a successful invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan's ground forces are probably sufficient to overwhelm any PRC landing, before the PRC can reinforce it.

The ROC also has a MASSIVE air defense belt, that would severely hamper PRC air strikes.

With sufficient air power, China could force a successful landing even with minimal amphibious capability. They could use their missles as a preemptive first strike to take out the Taiwanese airforce and airbases. The airforce would then blow the Taiwanese navy out of the water and "prep" the battlefield. After a few weeks of this, the landing would be a walkover.

If this sounds a lot like American tactics, well I think everyone has been studying the two Gulf wars.

[TCO]

stick to civ

[:) Smiley]

If this sounds a lot like American tactics, well I think everyone has been studying the two Gulf wars.

So you're in. Then what? The US can hardly control an enemy whose biggest weapons are rocket-launching donkeys.

Technological superiority is meaningless in days of asymmetrical warfare. Economic warfare would be another story, forget invading, simply cut off trade and seize assets.

[Ned]

Smiley, I don't think China can strangle Tawain economically. It will not let it go. They have said they will use force, and I believe them. The US has said that we do not support an independent Tawain. This is a clear signal to China that we will stand by if they invade as a result of a declaration of independence by Taiwan. In fact, our position here is almost identical to our position with Iraq just prior to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. We said that we do not get involved in "border disputes" among Arab states. Saddam took this as a green light. I think we have given China a similar "green light," making an invasion likely.

[POTUS]

How do you strangle Taiwan with the position of China now? They can't intercept trade to or from Taiwan, with their navy, and their Air Force would never be able to defeat Taiwan if they only attacked economic targets. Look at the Battle of Britian. The British won because the Luftwaffe did not continue to attack the RAF airfields. Same thing will happen to Taiwan if China attacks only economic targets.

[:) Smiley]

Many Taiwanese companies do business or have factories in China. Without even interfering with trade with other nations, it would but a serious damper on the economy.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Smiley
Many Taiwanese companies do business or have factories in China. Without even interfering with trade with other nations, it would but a serious damper on the economy.

So? Taking Taiwan's factories only forces them to build factories at home. It is a setback they can absorb.

Further, without the intellectual leadership from Taiwan, those Chinese factories would soon be useless to the Chinese. They would be producing parts that no one wanted.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Ned
Smiley, I don't think China can strangle Tawain economically. It will not let it go. They have said they will use force, and I believe them. The US has said that we do not support an independent Tawain. This is a clear signal to China that we will stand by if they invade as a result of a declaration of independence by Taiwan. In fact, our position here is almost identical to our position with Iraq just prior to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. We said that we do not get involved in "border disputes" among Arab states. Saddam took this as a green light. I think we have given China a similar "green light," making an invasion likely.

I'm sure the Chinese noticed the policy reversal on that one as well. Everytime China appears to mobilize an American Carrier appears in the Strait. Obviously a mixed message and probably by design...on one hand we tell PRC that we support one China and on the other we show Taiwan that we will be there.

The deeper problem may be the technological assets that Taiwan has...way beyond what PRC has. Can US allow that to fall in PRC hands? Not to mention the fact that we sell Taiwan some of our most sophisticated weapons. It all comes down to which is the best of two terrible options at the time. You can bet the PRC is continually evaluating the pros and cons for us getting or not getting involved.