Is probability so hard to understand?

[yavoon]

Originally posted by orange


Huh? Equal chance of rolling a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 8 (non-orange as it is of roling a 7, 9, or 10 (orange) from Jail.

Also - there are 9 and 9 types of rolls that are greater and less than 7, and 3 types of rolls that are equal to 7

1,1 < 7
1,2 < 7
1,3 < 7
1,4 < 7
1,5 < 7
2,2 < 7
2,3 < 7
2,4 < 7
3,3 < 7

1,6 = 7
2,5 = 7
3,4 = 7

2,6 > 7
3,5 > 7
3,6 > 7
4,4 > 7
4,5 > 7
4,6 > 7
5,5 > 7
5,6 > 7
6,6 > 7

not sure what all those #'s mean. but there is 1 way to roll a 2(1,1). two ways to roll a three(1,2;2,1). and 5 ways to roll a 8(6,2;2,6;3,5;5,3;4,4).

[yavoon]

Originally posted by tinyp3nis

Because the host allways chooses one from the _other two boxes_, you have 50% from the start...

66% if u switch. 33% if u don't.

[Curiosity]

Originally posted by tinyp3nis
Because the host allways chooses one from the _other two boxes_, you have 50% from the start...

Nope - choosing the first box is a 1/3 chance. Nothing can change that unless you switch.

[tinyp3nis]

Now that I think of it, I have probably seen this before years ago in school and ****ed it up then too. You are right.

[Urban Ranger]

This one's pretty easy.

Initially, you have 1/3 chance of picking the right box and 2/3 chance of picking a wrong one.

In the first case, if you switch, you get an empty box. In the second case, if you switch, you get the prize. So, if you switch, your chance of getting it right is twice as big as you don't.

[Sikander]

Re: Is probability so hard to understand?

I'll lay 9 to 5 that it is.

[Kropotkin]

I find propability to be dead simple. But maybe 15 years of boardgames and role-playing might have something to do with that...