Is probability so hard to understand?

[Urban Ranger]

Yesterday I was telling my mom about probability. She didn't understand any of it.

I was saying to her, if you flip a coin 10 times, and heads came up 9 times, does it mean that head has a 90% chance to come up the next flip? Of course not. When you roll a die 6 times, and 5 came up all 6 times, does it mean that 5 will come up next time as well? Of course not.

But she didn't understand. Why can't people grasp such simple concepts?

[PLATO]

So what's the difference between probability and actuarial science?

[Zero]

Probability is a big conspiracy! God does not play dice. Dont listen to the devil's preachings!

There's about 100% probability that I may not be serious when I said that.

[GePap]

Cause its math beyond arithmatic and thus by definition NOT simple..shees, why can't science types understand somehting so simple?

[Wiglaf]

Probabilities are not simple. How exactly would a computer calculate a completely random value? Not easily. Of course when you're talking in stupid terms, like the physical realm of a coin, then probability is more of a joke. Much easier to understand...

Can you write a truly accurate simulation of the perfect dice, UR? Did not think so.

[mrmitchell]

When you roll a die 6 times, and 5 came up all 6 times, does it mean that 5 will come up next time as well? Of course not.

Yes it will! The dice are obviously loaded.

[Nacht]

When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

[Bosh]

50% I think

[Nacht]

When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

[Nacht]

Sorry for the delayed double post...


Boshko: and with six dice? 100%?

[Asher]

Originally posted by Wiglaf
Probabilities are not simple. How exactly would a computer calculate a completely random value? Not easily. Of course when you're talking in stupid terms, like the physical realm of a coin, then probability is more of a joke. Much easier to understand...

Can you write a truly accurate simulation of the perfect dice, UR? Did not think so.

Understanding probability and generating random numbers on a computer aren't the same thing.

Computers can never be perfect at generating random numbers because all they are is glorified input/output devices. The input defines the output, which means it needs to start from something, which means it can never truly be random.

This is a very different thing from saying we don't understand how probability works.

[pchang]

experience

Your mom is probably used to loaded dice.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by GePap
Cause its math beyond arithmatic and thus by definition NOT simple..shees, why can't science types understand somehting so simple?

No, it's not the calculations, it's the basic concepts behind it.

[MrFun]

What is the probability of this thread becoming way boring??

[Skanky Burns]

3d6 to get at least one 6: 42+%
6d6 to get at least one 6: 66+%
10d6 to get at least one 6: 83+%

See, lots of fun.