Why Arnold may be tough to beat in California

[Victor Galis]

I don't know... if the Dems can make sure that no other high profile Dem will run, I don't think Arnold's chances are that good.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Berzerker
MtG -

But that's a big problem for the Dems, their pandering to special interests is one reason why California is in financial trouble. Facing a guy who has no obvious ties to special interests with the most politically connected guy in the state is going to hurt them big.

Not likely, Berz. First, California is a virtual People's Republic, that's why people like Boxer, Davis and Bustamante get elected. And the Reps are dirty with special interest ties too, they just have different ones.

Second, the Dem party machine is rich right now, the Reps aren't, so it's a question of how much money will Arnie throw in on his own.

Davis is just inept, and has the charisma of a blown out piece of retread lying on the shoulder of the road. Nobody likes Davis, but even so, if Issa hadn't been willing to pump a lot of money into the recall petition, it would have died.

Arnie may have a lot of charisma and recognition (I certainly don't dislike the guy), but this is a sort of lame duck election, and if Arnie wants to do anything as governor (and not get hamstrung by a lieutenant governor who isn't in the least accountable to him) he's going to have to play ball with the powers that be. If he runs against the special interests and both party's establishments (which isn't unlikely, since this is more of a peasant rebellion, with us peasants getting uppity), then he's going to have to be one hell of a campaigner with no learning curve, and completely cool under fire.

From the article:

Hmm...so Ahnold smoked pot. Will he support punishing others for doing what he did?

He can duck that issue, with the state having no legal ability to block the overzealous Feds, and with the Feds saying **** you to states with medical marijuana statutes

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Agathon


I've lived in various democracies, what more is there to know?

Oh, state politics tends to be a bit specific to each state down here. And California operates by a whole different set of rules.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


Oh, state politics tends to be a bit specific to each state down here. And California operates by a whole different set of rules.

Pretty crazy isn't it? It looks like it will be worth voting just for the sheer choice of nutty candidates.

[MichaeltheGreat]

I also think there's a deal between Bustamante and Issa and the party establishments, but we'll have to see what shakes out the next few days for confirmation if the fix is in.

[Timexwatch]

Last round, I swear :

"I need your clothes, your boots and your governorship."

"When the Governor gets here, CALL ME."

"Hey Gray! You bankrupted my state... BIG Mistake!"

"This is the problem with politicians... they're REALLY inconsiderate when it comes to people's money."

"NOT. Surprise, I'm your new Governor. And I've come to make your lives a living HELL. Prepare for a bitter harvest. WINTER... has come at last. "

"Who is your Governor, and what does he do?"

"You lack fiscal discipline!"

[Agathon]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
I also think there's a deal between Bustamante and Issa and the party establishments, but we'll have to see what shakes out the next few days for confirmation if the fix is in.

Presumably, from what I can gather, the animus of the voters is aimed squarely at Davis and not at the rest of the administration. That's why this Bukkawhite fellow has a chance.

It'll be fun to see Arn lose though, I'm guessing he won't take it well.

[Al B. Sure!]

"Who is your Governor, and what does he do?"

lol you know about those arnold prank calls too?

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Agathon

It'll be fun to see Arn lose though, I'm guessing he won't take it well.

I doubt it - he has the best of all worlds, either way. What's going to be telling is if/how hard he really campaigns for it.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Soul Survivor
1. He has no political experience. With the way politics is today, thats a good thing.

Ah, yes. Such types have been such effective leaders lately. Jesse Ventura, John Corzine, Michael Bloomberg...oops!

[Soul Survivor]

I don't think Bloomberg is bad for the city, he just has to deal with all the post-9/11 problems - so no matter what he does, no matter who does it, things were (are) getting worse in the city no matter what.

[Timexwatch]

Originally posted by Albert Speer


lol you know about those arnold prank calls too?

Know about them? I've done them

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Agathon
It'll be fun to see Arn lose though, I'm guessing he won't take it well.

Why? He can just console himself by thinking of the paycut he won't have to take.

He has no political experience. With the way politics is today, thats a good thing.

Where did you get that idea? The the after-school initiative that passed in '02 was his baby, was it not?

[Boris Godunov]

Bloomberg has been severely hamstrung by the very political inexperience you're advocating. He has no relationships with other city leaders a politician ordinarily would have, so has no clue how to play the political game (which, sadly, is a must) to get things done. His approval ratings are akin to Davis's, and that's pretty difficult to achieve without some measure of ineptitude.

He's made some pretty bad political moves while in office, including the smoking ban (Gee, let's piss off a good bulk of your constituents when a state law mandating the exact same thing is in the pipeline and likely to pass!), his lacksadasical response to the MTA crisis and his alienating both the Fire Dept. and the Police Dept., two city agencies with incredible clout.

He came in trying to lead the city like he does his business, as a veritable dictator. He's being roundly *****slapped from all sides now, because he didn't know how to play ball.

[Berzerker]

Mtg -

Not likely, Berz. First, California is a virtual People's Republic, that's why people like Boxer, Davis and Bustamante get elected. And the Reps are dirty with special interest ties too, they just have different ones.

No doubt, the Reps and Dems are corrupt nearly to the bone imo, but Arnold, like Perot before him, can put distance between himself and the parties and their special interests. I believe ~%15-18 of the people in just about any state are die-hard Dems or Reps and most of the rest who call themselves Dems or Reps are flexible when faced with a "cross-over" candidate such as Arnold. I think a previous poster had it about right, Bustamonte with ~%30 and Arnold closer to %50, I think only Feinstein could beat him. But we'll see soon enough.

Second, the Dem party machine is rich right now, the Reps aren't, so it's a question of how much money will Arnie throw in on his own.

Not as much I'm sure, but he'll get plenty of free coverage. It'll be tough, but I think he's the frontrunner nonetheless. Depends on whether or not the Reps put up a more "conservative" candidate to draw away Republican votes.

He can duck that issue, with the state having no legal ability to block the overzealous Feds, and with the Feds saying **** you to states with medical marijuana statutes

The key, if Arnold succeeds in getting pot laws reformed (not likely he'll even try), is that if the state of California refuses to enforce federal pot laws, the feds are screwed. They can't afford the resources to police the state like they can selected cities where medical pot distributors are pretty well-known. But I highly doubt he'll even mention pot laws/reforms; hell, I don't even know his views on that matter.