Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 14

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • I also liked davout's post.

    Reasoning about velocity cannot be made with accuracy, and we can wonder if any breakthrough were made whether corrective steps would not be made on the money supply side for fear of inflation. But in any case, it cannot be recommended to all the Dells of the world to shift to the Dell business model; at this point, Dell is a master piece. Would you recommend to all artists to paint like Michelangelo?
    Well, they're businesses, not artists. The lowest cost model will win out in the end, as long as the customers are willing to go for it. Maybe nobody wants to buy on the spur of the moment, but has not heretofore been given a favorable price/time tradeoff.

    Re monetary policy, I too wonder about the corrective actions taken on the money supply. Does money velocity vary all that much over time? And how does the money velocity of the US compare to other countries? Do those countries with higher money velocity tend to have more productive capital?

    Dell has the reputation to provide, at equivalent prices, products incorporating parts more up-to-date than their competitors, thanks to their way to handle inventory. This could explain that their gross margin is not better than their competitors: this advantage is given for free (at least partly) to the end user.
    That's a good explanation re gross margins.

    For instance, the improvement in the capital use resulting from the disappearance of the end products inventory has also a positive effect on the labour productivity (no warehouse employees, no paper work between the plant and the warehouse, no inventory taking, etc). But the same move made with a customer base accustomed to have products available on the shelf, it could badly damaged the productivity of the sales employees. Additionally, improvements in the labour productivity are often a consequence of capital expenditures. The art of management is to properly balance the two sides.
    Good points, all. I wonder how we could quantify what portion of the gain is impacting capital productivity and what portion labor productivity. Have any ideas?

    Re 2: I think the Economy of scale between 20 Bil and 40 Bil is not so significant. Like I said, they just add another call center or another factory (which is at scale). The difference between a large factory or small one or large or small call center is more likely what is significant. And that is something one can acheive at 20 Bil or 40 Bil or 5 bil. Economy of scale does not scale linearly with scale.
    TCO: Of course, you're right. A $20 billion company should not have economies of scale that are much less than a company with $40 billion in scale. I'm thinking more along the lines of marginal parts that Dell has. As they grow, they should be able to take advantage of more scale on these parts. I'm thinking that this is how they have been able to increase their inventory turnover from amazing to insane--they have had to hold fewer marginal parts in order to gain favorable scale for the parts.
    Last edited by DanS; October 3, 2003, 16:02.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

    Comment


    • Here's an article about Intel's CEO saying that the US needs to do more to keep its tech edge. Basically, he advocates subsidizing R&D to a greater degree than we do already.



      Some of his arguments are solid. Why we are subsidizing/protecting agriculture, steel, and lumber is a question that should be asked repeatedly. Some of these are pretty large subsidies. Of course, R&D is subsidized too. Also, his argument about education is good.

      But when he starts thinking about substantial additional government subsidies for R&D, I start asking why the government should distort capital allocation decisions to a greater degree than it already does. After all, apparently industry has made the decision that R&D is only worthwhile at a particular amount.

      One thing to note is that private R&D is taking an increasingly large portion of overall R&D, and overall R&D as a percentage of the economy has been rising long-term, at least here in the US.
      Last edited by DanS; October 3, 2003, 15:10.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

      Comment


      • I looked at the 10K for Dell. It is about a day of WIP. A day of finished goods. And 2 days of raw materials.
        OK, so this means that it takes 2 days to organize the raw materials, 1 day to assemble the product, and 1 day to ship out?

        If you compare to the 10-K from 5 years ago, which stage bore the brunt of the halving of the inventory ratio?
        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

        Comment


        • In order to make the bump not so gratuitous, I'll ask a question with regard to net debt and gross debt.

          For most countries, the difference between gross debt and net debt is not that great. For instance, the difference is about 10 percentage points in the US. Same with the Euro area. However, in both Japan and Canada, the difference is rather large: 90 percentage points and 40 percentage points, respectively. To what is owed this huge difference?
          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

          Comment


          • Originally posted by DanS
            In order to make the bump not so gratuitous, I'll ask a question with regard to net debt and gross debt.

            For most countries, the difference between gross debt and net debt is not that great. For instance, the difference is about 10 percentage points in the US. Same with the Euro area. However, in both Japan and Canada, the difference is rather large: 90 percentage points and 40 percentage points, respectively. To what is owed this huge difference?
            Barriers?
            I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
            - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

            Comment


            • What's the definition of both? Net debt in corporate finance is your interest bearing debt minus your cash and marketable securities.
              Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
              Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
              Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

              Comment


              • As I understand it, that's what it is for nations too. But does the government of Japan really have cash and marketable securities to the tune of $3 trillion? Is the "marketable securities" really just an IOU to the pensions system?
                Last edited by DanS; October 6, 2003, 15:04.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment


                • Originally posted by DanS
                  I also liked davout's post.



                  Well, they're businesses, not artists. The lowest cost model will win out in the end, as long as the customers are willing to go for it. Maybe nobody wants to buy on the spur of the moment, but has not heretofore been given a favorable price/time tradeoff.

                  Re monetary policy, I too wonder about the corrective actions taken on the money supply. Does money velocity vary all that much over time? And how does the money velocity of the US compare to other countries? Do those countries with higher money velocity tend to have more productive capital?



                  That's a good explanation re gross margins.



                  Good points, all. I wonder how we could quantify what portion of the gain is impacting capital productivity and what portion labor productivity. Have any ideas?



                  TCO: Of course, you're right. A $20 billion company should not have economies of scale that are much less than a company with $40 billion in scale. I'm thinking more along the lines of marginal parts that Dell has. As they grow, they should be able to take advantage of more scale on these parts. I'm thinking that this is how they have been able to increase their inventory turnover from amazing to insane--they have had to hold fewer marginal parts in order to gain favorable scale for the parts.
                  This doesn't make much sense. IT doesn't give with the earlier comment about different factories, at scale. It only makes sense if there production is centralized. And still would be minimal as it would only affect a small portion of the parts. Look at the average invetnory. It has been 3-4 days for several years. That is the interesting story. Not how it changed last year.

                  Comment


                  • I have kidicious on ignore. Please don't respond to his posts or include him in the discussion.

                    (Note to Ming. Ignore any whining. This is econoweenie land and I am allowed to violate site rules inside here. It's like an easement.)

                    Comment


                    • I am afraid that your vision of productivity is not complete; both aspects of productivity are always to be considered, and for any contemplated change on one of them the management has to look on the other to check that it will not deteriorate. For instance, the improvement in the capital use resulting from the disappearance of the end products inventory has also a positive effect on the labour productivity (no warehouse employees, no paper work between the plant and the warehouse, no inventory taking, etc). But the same move made with a customer base accustomed to have products available on the shelf, it could badly damaged the productivity of the sales employees. Additionally, improvements in the labour productivity are often a consequence of capital expenditures. The art of management is to properly balance the two sides.
                      I know this has been quoted several times, but I really like it. It's why we have FIFO and the likes. Through-put and meeting demand while limiting overhead and inventory... Simple?

                      I wonder how we could quantify what portion of the gain is impacting capital productivity and what portion labor productivity
                      Quantify? That would be easy, but wouldn't you consider capital productivity and intrinsic value? The only way to quantify it would be through capital savings, which could be optimized or just awful without yeilding a value... Productivity is easy to quantify, but measuring that to an intrinsic value is next to impossible, and that is where buisness minds come into play... to guess.

                      Question on comparing companies debt: are those debts measured on an even scale? What I mean is these companies from different nations have different governments in which to deal with. Some of them can't sink their debt through depreciation of assets such as land and equipment, since in some of these places the company doesn't own the land or the buildings... Also, when looking at Japan they do a lot of buisness with places like China (or at least have more companies that do) who doesn't float their currency, which could result in losses unless they hedge the yen against it, possibly resulting in debt. So, what I mean are all these international factors calculated into these debt ratios so that these comparisons can be made on even ground?
                      Monkey!!!

                      Comment


                      • Look at the average invetnory. It has been 3-4 days for several years. That is the interesting story. Not how it changed last year.
                        It has been 3-4 days for only the last 2 years. 4 years ago it was 7 days, not 3-4 days.
                        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                        Comment


                        • eh...ok. Now how much cash did that generate? Is it really the important story?

                          Comment


                          • That's what I've been trying to figure out!

                            Clearly, the Dell managers are controlling for that variable and brag about their progress on that variable. And they are rolling over their competitors. Is it that this variable is just incidental to them rolling over their competitors, or is it the main ingredient of the special sauce?

                            Further, Dell bragged about it in the context of IT and the internet, in that he thought the added virtual storefront wasn't where the benefit lay primarily (and I'm sure they benefit from dell.com). Rather, that it was remaking the internal processes of the company. I read that to mean that Dell thought that he had a big advantage on cost structure. But how much advantage does moving from a 7 day inventory to a 3.5 day inventory give them, and where does that show up in the numbers?
                            Last edited by DanS; October 7, 2003, 00:20.
                            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                            Comment


                            • It gives them 3 days cash in the year that it happens. And it gives them the carrying cost of that cash year over year.

                              I think the revenue growth is the more significant story.

                              Comment


                              • Perhaps I haven't framed these questions well at all.
                                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X