ANALYSIS: North Korea as a Nuclear Power

[Az]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
PLATO: it is unlikely in the extreme that NK could launch a successful conventional attack across the 38th.

how about an un-conventional one? One nuke to break SK, and a couple more pointed at China, Japan, and the US, to keep them quiet. Who will risk 5-6 million people of his population to save S.K.?

I don't think that list is long. Actually, I don't think it exists, at all.

[KrazyHorse]

a) If NK nuked SK then the US would blanket NK in nukes.

It's hard to launch any further missiles when they've dropped a hundred nor so warheads on you.

b) One nuke wouldn't break SK militarily. It would break them economically, but would have little effect on the front lines in the space that NK could sustain an offensive (4 weeks? 8 weeks?)

[KrazyHorse]

I don't think the NKs have gotten even close to the thermonuke stage, so one warhead kills 100 000, not 10 million.

[Az]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
a) If NK nuked SK then the US would blanket NK in nukes.

It's hard to launch any further missiles when they've dropped a hundred nor so warheads on you.

You simultaneously launch the attack against SK, and warn the US not to attack or else. I am sure NK has enough early warning ability for that, 'cause otherwise, they'd be long gone.

b) One nuke wouldn't break SK militarily. It would break them economically, but would have little effect on the front lines in the space that NK could sustain an offensive (4 weeks? 8 weeks?)

You don't have to launch it on Seoul. You use it tactically, AND devastate Seoul with your artillery.


About the thermonuke, I honestly don't know. How much of a leap is it?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Azazel

You simultaneously launch the attack against SK, and warn the US not to attack or else. I am sure NK has enough early warning ability for that, 'cause otherwise, they'd be long gone.

The US can plant subs 10 miles off NK's coast. Flight time to launch sites 5 minutes.

The NK's might see them coming, but almost certainly can't launch in the window they'll have.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Azazel
You don't have to launch it on Seoul. You use it tactically, AND devastate Seoul with your artillery.


About the thermonuke, I honestly don't know. How much of a leap is it?

Devastate Seoul with arty, sure. But one nuke punches a tiny little hole in the line. 2 miles. The SKs and Amis close that gap with tanks and mech infantry instantly, and cover it with arty and air power.

Tacnukes don't work one at a time. You need a hundred or two.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Azazel
About the thermonuke, I honestly don't know. How much of a leap is it?

Technology-wise: it depends. For a western country, not much of a leap at all. For NK: a big one, I think.

Pakistan doesn't have thermonukes, if the info is correct. India does, though.

The leap in yield is huge.

10 kt -> 10 mt

[Az]

I know how much of leap energy-wise is it. The question is can Korea make the technology leap. I think so, they've shown prowess so far.

By tactical nukes, I mean tactically using regular nukes, not smaller warheads.

[KrazyHorse]

NK has not shown any more tech proficiency than Pak. Actually, they've shown a lot less.

And a bigger nuke on a battlefield does not do proportionally more damage. The extra energy is mostly wasted. Plus you have to draw your guys farther back from the point of attack, which loses a lot of the value of being able to disappear an entire division.

The NKs would need to drop at least dozens of any warhead they use. And if they do that then they'll get blasted with the nukes of about 5 different countries at once. Including China.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
PLATO: it is unlikely in the extreme that NK could launch a successful conventional attack across the 38th.

I know that and you know that, but what is Kim being told by his advisors? That they have a second class military? I doubt it. Besides...That is not the point! The point is that given the current type of ideology in the north, an attempt to take the south may appear, to them, to be the only hope for survival that they have left. If they have no other option, in their mind, and they feel that they can keep US at bay, I believe that it will come to pass.

We all are making judgements from a western point of view. Let's not forget how badly the Iraqi's miscalculated western power in Gulf War I. I don't think DPRK will look at things the way westerners do.

[Az]

I tend to disagree on that, considering the possible collapse of communications in SK, and the risk of being nuked by NK.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
NK has not shown any more tech proficiency than Pak. Actually, they've shown a lot less.

How do you figure that? DPRK missle tech is the best outside of the major powers. Does pakistan have anywhere near this level of missle tech? Don't think so!

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Azazel
I tend to disagree on that, considering the possible collapse of communications in SK, and the risk of being nuked by NK.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Azazel, I have to agree with you. The "modern" ROK army is heavily dependent on communications for their battle doctrine. The electro-magnetic pulse from a single nuke could paralize them long enough for a concerted attack to penetrate into their rear.

[Az]

I see it like this:
They MLRS Seoul, and launch two nukes in SK rear. in the same time, NK says that it will respond with force to any attack on it by other powers. Who's willing to be nuked?

[Gatekeeper]

Originally posted by Azazel
Personally, My opinion is that we can say that the **** has hit the fan, when NK will have missiles that reach the continental US. Then, NK's leadership will feel secure enough to make some real mess, or at least threaten to do so, unless their demands are fullfilled.

Precisely. If that happens, NK could conceivably feel free to start a conventional showdown with SK while threatening anyone else who dared to get involved with a bit of nuclear blackmail.

Gatekeeper