Payware is going extinct?

[muxec]

Disclaimer: This thread is not propoganda or promotion of illegal software. You must destroy all illegal software that you have. You are legally allowed to use adware programs or remove trial versions just after expiration date without purchasing. If you disagree you must leave the thread!

Please read the disclaimer carefully! By participating in the thread you automotically confirm that you agreed with the disclaimer.

Ok. And now the topic.
More and more people have fast cable/ADSL internet and their upload speeds are growing. Also peer to peer download networks (KaZaA, eDonkey, iMesh) are developing quickly. Now almost any software product can be downloaded using these free programs. Also MP3s and movies are easily downloadable via these networks. Moving total ban on the p2p software is imposible and some experts claim, that payware will go extint within 20 years. Psychologists say, that 73.4% of normal people who have money to purchase the software but can get free illegal version would use free illegal versions. Also they say that 99.6% of people who have no money to purchase would use illegal software. Yes, you can pay 40$ for a month with fast internet and download GBs of software products that would cost 10000$ to purchase.

Software developers would not work for a free and there are some possible futures.

1. Computers taxes. All PC/Mac owbers would be taxed by the goverment and would get all software for a free. Those who don't pay lose their computer. The goverment pays to the software developers according to the usage rate of the software.
2. Adware programs. You pay developer by watching advertisments inside the program. The adware programs already appeared. For example you can download adware version of DivX pro. The disadvantage of the adware, that it requires internet connection and can not work offline.
3. Paying with CPU time. Some huge projects (Human genome, for example) require a lot of computing and even supercomputers need a lot of time for data analysis. Maybe future software will have enormous hardware requirement and will run some specific calculation for third party while you are using the software. If your have not enought CPU resources for the background process the software would fail to run. The software of this kind already exists. In SETI@Home you pay for cool screensaver with your CPU-time.
4. Death penalty for "warezist" in USA. The solution would probably fail, but everything may happen. Death peanalty would really stop distributing illegal files in peer-to-peer networks, but will make USA a dictatrship.

[MRT144]

id rather that software developers quit and never make software again then let one person pirate software.

[geeslaka]

I predict that attempts will be made to implement all three, and that such attempts will fail. Software development will slow to a crawl because programmeres will be doing it in their spare time and not getting paid for it. Except for people with sister's like Jaguar Warrior's. http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...threadid=90259

[Firelad]

Service. Software is free, but maintenance, installation, tech help etc. isn't.

[Mercator]

I really can't imagine payware ever going extinct. After all, people apparently find downloading payware illegally more worthwhile than getting free open-source software legally.

Once the illegal dowloading would get so much out of hand that the entire software would be at the brink of extinction, consumers would be digging their own grave.

But I'm not sure about the importance of support. People are getting more and more familiar with computers, and I know I've never made use of any sort of official support. If I ever need help, I can figure it out myself, or with the help of some friends or the all-knowing Internet (e.g. Apolyton).

And about your proposals:
(1) Not such a bad idea actually... I just read about something similar (I think), in regards to music (this site: http://www.weblisten.com/). From what I read, you pay to get unlimited download access for a limited amount of time. So, that's quite different from the pay-per-song kind of thing that already existed.
(2) OK, but I'm not sure if it really works. After all, you can't guarantee that anyone actually pays attention to any of the advertisements, and the distaste for unwanted "commercial attention" on the Internet is only growing. Not to mention the possible intrusion of privacy.
(3) Nice... but not really suitable for many products. I mean, what could, say, a gaming company possibly want with supercomputing powers? Sell their "network" to scientific institutions perhaps?
(4) Come on, that's just laughable! Why on earth do you need to bring the death penalty in to this?
It's not the punishment that's of any importance, but rather the chance to actually get caught.

In principle, I agree with the disclaimer. But that doesn't mean I'm actually gonna do it.

[Ari Rahikkala]

How about legal free software ?

[muxec]

Originally posted by Ari Rahikkala
How about legal free software ?

Yes, some free software products are high-quality programs (PovRay for exmple), but must of free somtware are unprofessional and low-quality. Software coded by well paid programmers is much better.

TO Mercator: Remove last string of your post to avoid being Minged.

[Az]

muxec, I need help to find a certain software. an old one. can you help?

[Mercator]

Originally posted by muxec
Software coded by well paid programmers is much better.

I disagree. A fat check doesn't increase programming ability. The main reasons why free software can be worse quality is either because it's made by people that aren't very good programmers, or because the project is being coordinated badly.
I'm quite sure there is much more freeware out there than payware, so the comparison isn't entirely fair. And not to forget, there are also a lot of "hobbyists" who want money for their shaky software.

TO Mercator: Remove last string of your post to avoid being Minged.

Why? I'm not promoting nor endorsing illegal software (or any other licensed/copyrighted material for that matter), nor did I even say I had any... Is the reason you put that disclaimer in because you fear Ming, or because you actually believe in it?

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Mercator
I disagree. A fat check doesn't increase programming ability.

No, it doesn't. However, experienced programmers are, in general, going to write programs that they'll get paid for, rather than just work for free.

[Az]

skywalker: I am for people getting paid. but projects like the open-office show that it's not neccessary.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Mercator
Is the reason you put that disclaimer in because you fear Ming, or because you actually believe in it?

No... he knows that Apolyton has a Zero Tolerance Policy to discussions on Software theft

[Mercator]

I know, but this thread isn't about software theft, it's about the future of software.

Originally posted by skywalker
No, it doesn't. However, experienced programmers are, in general, going to write programs that they'll get paid for, rather than just work for free.

There are also plenty of them who also program for free (Perl, for instance). And you can argue about the quality of things like GNU/Linux, the GIMP, open-office (as Azazel mentioned) etc. but you can't say they aren't made by experienced programmers.

[Atahualpa]

Death peanalty would really stop distributing illegal files in peer-to-peer networks, but will make USA a dictatrship.

now it did stop murderers didnt it

[Kuciwalker]

Mercator: however, far more high-quality programs are made by paid programmers.

I'm not saying there wouldn't continue to be good software. I'm saying there probably wouldn't be nearly as much.