Gray Davis might be recalled in California

[Du_Chateau]

Originally posted by Jack_www

The figure I heard was that it would cost 60 million dollars to do the recall. California has 100 Billion dollar buget. So it is nothing if you compared it to the rest of the buget.

60 million might be a little bit money compare to the state's budget but I will put it more manageable terms. 60 million can help improve the system schools and hire the adqueate amount of teachers needed. 60 million can keep a couple of low income hospitals open and fund firefighters. 60 million can also be use the keep the highways up to snuff and to make mass transit more assessible. I can think of more better ways of spending 60 million dollars than a frivolous recall election.

I am not a fan of Grey Davis. I dislike his cuts in education but I would not like to see futher cuts in services.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Jack_www
The last poll I heard that they ran on this issue, 51% of voters support recalling Gray Davis. Also I doubt that Davis can solve the buget crisis. Look at what he did with the energy crisis. Now we are stuck paying higher rates because of him.

I think they will get the needed signitures.

The problems I see with it are more strategic - from the Republican standpoint, hopping into a high risk fiscal crisis is pretty dangerous. A replacement on a recall will have a higher expectation to fix things, and less of an ability to blame the incumbent. If I was a Republican, I'd be pretty hesitant to hang my political future on being able to fix this mess, especially with essentially the same legislature that contributed so much to causing it. I'd like my chances much better in 2006.

From the Democratic standpoint, relatively few politicians are willing to be seen as backstabbers, and risk lukewarm or non-existent future support from the state party machine. They'll move if it's obvious the tide's carrying them that way, but only then.

Articles I've seen suggest it'll cost about two million to get the signatures required for certification - that may be a bit high, since there are an exceptional number of people who'd like to politically match up Davis with a tree, a horse and some rope, but the two million cost estimate can't be very high - there's a good experience base with the cost of petition drives for state ballot initiatives.

Two million is a lot to spend on a political gamble, without knowing who the replacement candidates are. Issa or Riordan can spend it themselves, but it's still a hot potato, and there's the campaign costs after that.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Du_Chateau


60 million might be a little bit money compare to the state's budget but I will put it more manageable terms. 60 million can help improve the system schools and hire the adqueate amount of teachers needed. 60 million can keep a couple of low income hospitals open and fund firefighters. 60 million can also be use the keep the highways up to snuff and to make mass transit more assessible. I can think of more better ways of spending 60 million dollars than a frivolous recall election.

60 million won't get you near 35 billion, which is the hole the state's looking at.

I am not a fan of Grey Davis. I dislike his cuts in education but I would not like to see futher cuts in services.

There are only three possible approaches, or some combination of the three: More taxes, when they're already by far the highest in the US, less spending, or improved efficiency in the delivery of services, so more of what does get spend reaches the end user of those services.

More taxes is counterproductive, because it will lengthen and deepen the recession in California, and drive more employers out of state. Less spending is problematic, because service levels will decline. Improved efficiency in service delivery is the best goal, but the least attainable in the time frame necessary to solve the crisis.

[Shi Huangdi]

"I'd guess so. Davis at least knows the inclination of the state Republican Party leadership is to only support social conservatives for statewide office, so trying to indirectly play the abortion rights card is most likely a desperate grasp at that constituency."

Interesting. This is off the topic, but I am curious what do you think the result (if any) of the bishop's intervention has been?

[MichaeltheGreat]

Not much at all.

Evangelicals and other conservative Protestants already hate Davis and have fixed views on the abortion issue.

The biggest Catholic constituency is Mexican-American of course, but the battleground issues between Republicans and Democrats in the Hispanic communities are really based on standard of living, education, and other primarily economic, working class and middle class issues, plus a history of race/immigration issues.

In the San Joaquin valley, there's also a union vs. farm and ranch owner split, representing a classic owners vs. workers issue going back to the early Cesar Chavez days, so the hispanic vote there is more heavily Democratic. In the urban and suburban parts of the state, things like US immigration policy, discrimination, etc. have hampered the Republican party.

So the position of the Catholic church really is very limited in it's influence.

It's also a potential problem legally, if you're familiar with the Lucy Killea case some time ago, although I don't think a "suggestion" that Davis stop taking communion is a problem. An order denying him communion, or any other coercive steps, is a 501(c)(3) status issue.

[MBD]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat

Two million is a lot to spend on a political gamble, without knowing who the replacement candidates are. Issa or Riordan can spend it themselves, but it's still a hot potato, and there's the campaign costs after that.

I thought I read in an article somewhere that if the recall vote ever happens, the ballot will also include a list of candidates from which the voters have to choose a replacement governor. The vote would require only a plurality, not a majority, and that candidate takes office right away.
And I agree it would be better for a number of reasons for the Republicans to stay clear of this.

[MichaeltheGreat]

I don't know what the procedure is, since it's never been done I've never looked into it, but whoever is in the running who wants the office would be doing the usual campaigning thing, but on a much shorter timeline.

[Ted Striker]

Governor Davis is a whiny *****.

Any time something bad happens he starts pointing the finger at someone else. No ideas, no initiative, NOTHING. Just CYA finger pointing.

I'd recall his ass in a second. Where the hell do I sign?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Ted Striker
Governor Davis is a whiny *****.

Any time something bad happens he starts pointing the finger at someone else. No ideas, no initiative, NOTHING. Just CYA finger pointing.

I'd recall his ass in a second. Where the hell do I sign?

Aren't you living in Texas?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
The Dem legislative response to the crisis (exacerbated by DWR's ****ups on long term energy purchases) is to tax the hell out of everything that isn't already taxed to hell.

During the good years, the long-standing deal between the Republicans and Democrats was a dollar-for-dollar matching of increased spending with tax cuts. Now, that more money is desparately needed, Davis has suggested reversing the process--every dollar in increased taxes matched by a dollar cut from spending. I wasn't aware that rolling back tax cuts in an even-handed manner was "taxing the hell out of everything."

Rather that spread the hardship among everyone, the minority Republicans demand the budget be balanced by solely by cutting spending--on schools, hospitals, the highway patrol, road repair, the court systems, prisons, etc.

Last week, one of the networks (IIRC CBS) carried a story on county medical emergency rooms being constantly overwhelmed with patients. The emergency care facility said to be the most overcrowed in the nation is County-USC here in Los Angeles. Since that time, many of the doctors there have been given lay off notices.

The notion of taxing business and jobs out of the state (which is already non-competitive in terms of all other costs of doing business) doesn't occur to these collective Einsteins in the California Democratic Party.

And what happens to the businesses when they learn of lack of police, overcrowed medical facilities, poor public schools, pot-holed roads, closed courtrooms, prisoners being turned loose early to save money, etc., etc., etc.? Y'think they'll love it here?

Oh, and just curious--48 of the 50 states are in budgetary crisises. Is Gray Davis responsible for the problems in all 48 states or just in California?

[Timexwatch]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


The problems I see with it are more strategic - from the Republican standpoint, hopping into a high risk fiscal crisis is pretty dangerous. A replacement on a recall will have a higher expectation to fix things, and less of an ability to blame the incumbent. If I was a Republican, I'd be pretty hesitant to hang my political future on being able to fix this mess, especially with essentially the same legislature that contributed so much to causing it. I'd like my chances much better in 2006.

From the Democratic standpoint, relatively few politicians are willing to be seen as backstabbers, and risk lukewarm or non-existent future support from the state party machine. They'll move if it's obvious the tide's carrying them that way, but only then.

Articles I've seen suggest it'll cost about two million to get the signatures required for certification - that may be a bit high, since there are an exceptional number of people who'd like to politically match up Davis with a tree, a horse and some rope, but the two million cost estimate can't be very high - there's a good experience base with the cost of petition drives for state ballot initiatives.

Two million is a lot to spend on a political gamble, without knowing who the replacement candidates are. Issa or Riordan can spend it themselves, but it's still a hot potato, and there's the campaign costs after that.

I haven't been following this close, but from what I've read, my gut feeling is that no serious candidate who hopes to have a political future will run to replace Davis. I'm guessing that the only people who will run if Davis is thrown out will be state reps coaxed into it with the promise of a nice, cushy job when they get done. Any Dem who seriously goes against Davis right now is likely to get purged if he survives the recall.

As for future Republican Govs, IIRC, wasn't Cong. Ose thinking about running for governor?

[Ted Striker]

The situation just described by Timex is sortof like when Kurt Rambis was hired as the coach of the Lakers. He was just sort of "holding the fort" until a real coach arrived on the scene (Phil Jackson).

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Timexwatch


I haven't been following this close, but from what I've read, my gut feeling is that no serious candidate who hopes to have a political future will run to replace Davis. I'm guessing that the only people who will run if Davis is thrown out will be state reps coaxed into it with the promise of a nice, cushy job when they get done. Any Dem who seriously goes against Davis right now is likely to get purged if he survives the recall.

As for future Republican Govs, IIRC, wasn't Cong. Ose thinking about running for governor?

Yeah, Ose is, but he doesn't have statewide name recognition. Solano County and environs really aren't a big launching ground for state office. I've never dealt with Ose himself, but I have dealt with the head of his local staff and his office in California. They just look so Republican , but they're pretty professional, competent, and able to deal pragmatically with most of the political interest groups in the state.

[Dis]

yes I heard about this. great news.

grey davis has been called the worst governor ever in the history of mankind by some.

[Jack_www]

Originally posted by Du_Chateau


60 million might be a little bit money compare to the state's budget but I will put it more manageable terms. 60 million can help improve the system schools and hire the adqueate amount of teachers needed. 60 million can keep a couple of low income hospitals open and fund firefighters. 60 million can also be use the keep the highways up to snuff and to make mass transit more assessible. I can think of more better ways of spending 60 million dollars than a frivolous recall election.

I am not a fan of Grey Davis. I dislike his cuts in education but I would not like to see futher cuts in services.

Well I am sorry to say this but California has a 38 Billion hole, and we are going to have to make really deep cuts in the buget. Rasing taxes will only make the economic stituation even worse. Bussiness are moving out because of taxes and other expenses already, putting in place more taxes to fund the out of controll spending by the legislature will not make things better.

Davis is not going to make the cuts needed to get the state out of debt and netheir will legeslature. Davis has given raises to prison guards and the firefighters even in the mist of this crisis and of course they are supporting Davis during this recall effort.