Turn 76, 1000BC

[Hot Mustard]

What constitutes a 'considerable dent'?

[Krill]

Well, considering the difficulty Jon has for playing the save on time I think he might be a little unhappy with the game and just wants out. So I think it is either a trap or Jon overestimates the ability for a CD2 archer to defend against 3 skirms.

[Krill]

I'd say throw the first skirm at it, and if it dents the archer then attack with the second, then attack with the third if we have say greater than 50% chance of winning.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by Solomwi
I was thinking more of the time in terms of Vox's gain than our loss. Without our choking ability, they'd be able to use that time more productively. Still, I agree with what you're saying here, SR. My preference is to take the reasonable gamble.

Looking at it from the other side, why would they give us such a golden opportunity? Aside from their just or missing our third Skirm, can anybody see a potential trap here, or other reason for them to deliberately present this chance to us? I think offering The Voice as bait and taking the chance of our razing it is a bit too much risk for the benefit they'd receive (assuming for the moment they've got a settler out there to keep themselves alive), though if they see this as their last gasp hope, meaning they don't have a settler out there, it might make sense. Mistake or desperate act in the hopes of our wasting our choking force on their one stout defender?

With Blake's number of 60% odds, I'm definitely in favour of attacking. Though, as you say - it's hard to imagine Vox taking a gamble at 40% odds for themselves, unless they just missed the move, or if they're calculating the odds differently.

If you were Vox, would you take this gamble at 40%? 50%?

[Hot Mustard]

Seems like we'll need continue-or-stop numbers for each unit.

So...

What % odds (or health remaining for the archer) should we continue at with the second Skirmisher?

What % odds(or health remaining for the archer)should we continue at with the third Skirmisher?


Also, I agree with Krill that Beckham (on cow tile) should go first, since he is on the least-defensible tile. Does it matter what order the other two go in?

[Hot Mustard]

This is already the second-biggest turn thread of the game, after Turn 2 with 82 posts.

[Solomwi]

Krill, that's one of the things that occurred to me. Rather than bleed out a slow death with us choking them, they may have decided to put all their faith in the CG2 archer and leave him alone to provoke us to attack. If we take their offer, either they free themselves of our choking force, and maybe get peace out of the deal (from their perspective), or they get an exit they can view as just hastening the inevitable. I'm okay with that. If they made a colossal mistake in giving us this opening, I'm okay with that. If they're laying a trap that can spring even if we take The Voice, it's reason for pause. The distinction between these two groups of reasons is the question asked earlier: could they have slipped a settler out under our nose, or have some other means of surviving without The Voice? Another question: does the mod for this game require complete kills? I've seen some mods where units remain when all the cities are gone, and if that's the case here, we don't have much to gain from an attack.

I'll list the potential reasons we come up with and update new reasons to this post, for comparison purposes, if you guys want.

1. Mistake
2. Trap in which they remain alive even if we take The Voice
3. "Heroic stand" in which they bait us into attacking and hope the CG2 archer holds out

[Krill]

If we take the Voice I'd be slightly disappointed if we didn;t reach 500 posts.

[Krill]

This game was with stock rules, so all their units dissappear if we take the Voice and they have no other city.

[Solomwi]

Right on, so eliminate that possibility and we're left with them having to have a settler outside of The Voice in order to survive, right?

[Krill]

We are in the region of 20 turns to construction. In those 20 turns, Vox are under no circumstances going to be able to get the units togehter to take any cities from us or even impede us from teching to construction. they can get out that settler and maybe another one, and mayeb some workers, but they won't have any more defensive units apart from what they slave when we walk in with an SoD.

We are too well developed for them to stop us from killing them with cats even if we lose all three of those skirms. Hell, I'd quite like it if we let them expand, because we won't have to make as many catapults to kill them if they plant a few cities.

[Krill]

No, they need a city, even if they have a settler they automatically die if we takethe Voice. It literally has to be a city, which they don't have.

[Solomwi]

Gotcha, so we can eliminate that possibility completely. Unless I'm overlooking a potential reason, I don't see one on there that would make me think the opportunity isn't everything that it seems to be.

[Arrian]

If we lose, it will sting, but it won't be catastrophic. They've already been BADLY harmed by our choke. They don't have a single tile improvement, nor do they have a worker.

Attack.

-Arrian

[asleepathewheel]

Thanks for the pm!

Great opportunity to attack!