Banana: Diplomacy Thread #2

[T-hawk]

Not to mention the loss of science from running the slider and the chance of failiure.

Failure never costs espionage points. It only costs the spy, so all you need is another spy to keep right on going. Stealing with the full -50% stationary spy discount is almost always cheaper than straight research. We should keep this option in mind.

[Zeviz]

PAL mentioned that they got a map of new world from Banana (see latest PAL thread). Let's ask Banana for a new map trade. (If they can trade their map to PAL, they should trade it to us, their allies, as well.)

[Dreylin]

PAL mentioned that they got a map of new world from Banana (see latest PAL thread). Let's ask Banana for a new map trade. (If they can trade their map to PAL, they should trade it to us, their allies, as well.)

I really didn't read the conversation like that; I read it as PAL asking if we had seen the New World via a map from Banana.

[timmy827]

Failure never costs espionage points. It only costs the spy, so all you need is another spy to keep right on going. Stealing with the full -50% stationary spy discount is almost always cheaper than straight research. We should keep this option in mind.

Yes, but...We're only at 450 EP vs. them now. That might be close to nabbing Music (useful as a route to Military Tradition) but probably not anything else (can't log in right now, so can't check the numbers). Certainly a long way from Chemistry or Steel if PAL gifts them. So to get one of those we would have to make a major investment with the slider, but with Libraries, the Academy in A1, and some universities/Oxford in near future, but no espionage multiplier buildings, we produce science much more efficiently than espionage right now, and I'm not sure if the steal would actually come out ahead.

EDIT: Nope, misread Sulla's post in C&D. They have 450 on us, we only ~200 on them.

[timmy827]

OK, logged into the game and did some more checking. And had little else to do, so decided to indulge my nerdiness and test T-hawk's quote above.

Assume we steal from Imperio:
We will not have trade routes as it will be after the DOW, and since we are both Islamic we don't get any of the discounts for religion. So I think the only factors in play are stationary spy (-50%) and relative distance between the capitals (don't have the formulas; in my Epic 24 report it was +9%, to consider a best-case scenario for spying let's say it could be as low at +5%). There will also be a factor based on our EP ratio with Imperio; right now that would go against us but we would ramp up EP to steal tech, but they would quite likely ramp up EP against us in case of war. So for this calculation I'm going to ignore it since the ratio is hard to predict.

I believe these multiply together, not add, so we get an overall spy cost of 52.5%. HOWEVER, one key point is that the base EP cost to steal a tech is 1.5 times its printed beaker cost. So the approximate EP cost of stealing would be 78.75 % of the beaker cost. Still sounds pretty good, but let's examine the science side.

Remember that beakers applied to a tech get a +20% bonus per "optional" prerequisite. (These are the arrows on the tech tree, as opposed to the icons.) So nearly everything (only exceptions past starting techs are Astro and Divine Right I believe) gets a +20% boost; Music gets +40% since we know both Drama and Lit. There is also a boost based on number of civs knowing the tech, 30% * (number knowing / number who started game). Let's assume that PAL will also have whatever we'd steal from Imperio but no one else, so this would be a 10% bonus, and assume a tech we only have the minimum 20% prereq for. These multiply, so the actual beaker cost of the typical tech we could steal is:

1/(1.2*1.1) = 75.75 % of listed cost.

So already normal teching is ahead, even before considering the hammer costs of a spy and the time-costs of failure. But it tilts more when considering the ratios of conversion of commerce to espionage. My previous post was in error, we do get a +25% global boost to espionage from Nationhood. However, our current commerce-to-science multiplier is roughly +37% (found empirically, dialed down research to 30% temporarily which is basically breakeven, compared (sum of base commerce) * 30% to science from commerce across all cities). And again, that espionage modifier isn't going up anytime soon, while the science will once universities come in as well as libraries in the smaller cities.

Of course, this is discounting our current espionage against Imperio and our non-slider sources. Again we have 200 on them now, and currently getting 10 per turn from palace + 2 courthouses. Say we get 'bout tree-fiddy if we turn our spending to them over the next 15 turns. Now 200 EP now and 350 EP the are pretty significant portions of what it would take to get Music or Optics (~675) or Theology (~560), so it may be worth running some espionage slider to help "cash out" our current accumulation before we eliminate them. But trying to steal a more costly tech like Chemistry, where our current 200EP is pretty insignifcant next to the total cost, is a losing proposition.

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Down the road, if we control holy Lakamha, stay Islamic, and PAL is not, stealing tech via Islamic Alexandria could be tempting (there's a -40% espionage cost mod). Especially if open borders with PAL is possible (another -20%) (maybe after Corp obsoletes TGL, although I rather expect we'll be in "final war mode" by then even if formal hostilities haven't yet started.)

EDIT:
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Unrelated thought - looking at the conversation in the PAL thread, I'm 99% sure Dreylin is right, not Zeviz (PAL asked if we had traded maps with Banana, not implied that a PAL-Banana map trade had happened.)

[sooooo]

I think we should write to banana and inform them of PAL's friendliness to us. I think we should explain to them that this is a prisoner's dilemma: neither of us should trade anything with them and we both come out on top.

PAL are clearly trying to disrupt our trade agreements. If either of us trade for a tech with PAL, then the other will have to self-research that tech instead of researching a new tech for the two of us.

It's better for the both of us if we agree not to cooperate with PAL.

[mostly-harmless]

It's better for the both of us if we agree not to cooperate with PAL.

I completely agree. I don't want another screwed up tech deal with Banana.
We should also request a map update. I want to see what the new world looks like.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

I agree: just say 'no' to PAL!

[regoarrarr]

email from banana

Realms Team,

Let me think about your tech proposal. Printing Press does nothing for us in the short-term because we have no Towns (or even Cottages for that matter....sad isn't it?) We really don't have the landscape to produce many of them. Replaceable Parts is another tech where we would be treading water, so I've pretty much convinced myself to make do without the Rifling path in the short term. I'll know more in a couple of turns.

Re: PAL vs. Rabbits, it looks like Eisenburg will fall this turn. That will give PAL Iron to make Cannons, which makes me pretty nervous. They'll also be able to build Frigates, which negates any naval strategy I was considering.

Lastly, what are the chances we can keep Horses for awhile? With possible war brewing over here, I'd like to have as many clubs in my bag as possible....

Regards,
Donovan

[sooooo]

Hmm, OK. Let's have a think. The fact is that Printing Press is the only tech he can bulb with his scientist and he can get it all with him. Scientific Method requires Printing Press.

I think that we should point out to him that it's hard to progress anywhere without Printing Press. It's a required tech for most of the good things soon: Scientific Method, Rifles, Railroads, Biology.

I wonder if we can offer him horses for some extra turns in return for him bulbing PP and gifting it to us.

It's kind of like he's gifting us half a scientist, but we can say that we'll get another GS in about 10 turns time which we can use to part-bulb Scientific Method for him (or even give him the guy).

[sooooo]

OK, here's what I propose:

Dear Donovan,

Two parts to this email. Firstly news of PAL. They have contacted us out of the blue and want to be friends again. They want to open borders and trade techs and resources. We have been wondering why, and have come up with the following reasons:

1) They are planning on declaring on you and realise that they'll lose more trade routes, hence they want to open borders with us.
2) They are suffering war weariness with rabbits and expect to get more with you, hence they want happy resources.
3) They want to disrupt RB/banana trade deals.

Don't worry, we won't get sucked in by them. In fact, we've been thinking of asking you for an anti-PAL pact . We think that trading with PAL is a prisoner's dilemma. If we both agree not to do it then we both benefit. The situation is that we are teching very well together and PAL are jealous. We tech A, you are teching B with an agreement to trade A for B. If we trade A for PAL's C tech, then banana will lose out on the trade for A and hence will have to self-research it. Instead of RB and banana trading A for B and then researching D and E, banana have to research B while RB are researching D. Therefore RB cannot trade for E when they finish D. Is that overly complicated? It's the same for resources too. What do you think of this pact?

Secondly onto teching and horses.

Horses for longer could be possible but it will disappoint our general who has been looking forward to having them back. But we recognise the precariousness of your situation and they are on the table.

After the Edu for Astro trade goes through, there are only two real paths we want to take: the chemistry and the lower tree and PP and the path to rifling. Since you may be about to go to war, a lightbulb seems considerably better than settling but PP is permanently the only tech you can lightbulb (it is a pre-req for Sci Meth). PP might not be useful for the abilities, but it's a prerequisite for pretty much everything good in the mid-term. It's needed for Sci Meth and hence Biology. It's needed for rifling, steam power and hence railroads. And you can bulb it without having to spend much/any beaker researching it.

What we propose is that we give you education next turn when we have it. Then you bulb printing press and gift it to us. Then one of use researches replacable parts and the other one chemistry (we don't mind which) and trade them for oneanother. We'll continue to supply you horses until T170.

This is pretty much equivalent to you gifting us half a scientist, a big favour. However, we will be able to return the favour later on since we'll have 90% odds of a scientist of our own in about 13 turns which we could use for scientific method (or even gift to you, though technically it doesn't matter which way we do it).

Let us know what you think,

Team Realms Beyond

[Swiss Pauli]

What he doesn't seem to have understood is that PP is just a trade chit, and he gets Chemistry (which he actually does want) in return. We're going to Rifling anyway, so he'll either bulb it, or pick it up in trade: it's the same difference.

We need to remind him that PAL can't build Frigates without Astro!

I suggest we go over our proposal again, emphasising the benefits. He's admitted to not ever completing a game of CIV, so I think we can hammer home our points without him taking umbrage.

EDIT: Ninja'd by sooooo in between 'preview' and 'post'

EDIT2: skip the A for B for C. Let's keep it simple - 'PAL embargo'.

[T-hawk]

These multiply, so the actual beaker cost of the typical tech we could steal is:

1/(1.2*1.1) = 75.75 % of listed cost.

Thanks for the analysis, you just freed up my evening. Yeah, now that I think about it, we're much better built to produce beakers than espionage currently, even with +25% EP from Nationhood.

Now 200 EP now and 350 EP the are pretty significant portions of what it would take to get Music or Optics (~675) or Theology (~560), so it may be worth running some espionage slider to help "cash out" our current accumulation before we eliminate them. But trying to steal a more costly tech like Chemistry, where our current 200EP is pretty insignifcant next to the total cost, is a losing proposition.

This I also like. In single-player, I often cash out the trickle of EPs to steal useful but cheap and delayable techs. Music is probably the best choice of those, since it can wait for the moment but we'll need Mil Trad eventually. We'll need Optics sooner and Theology perhaps never.

So what does the Espionage Dept think about sending our EP against Imperio now? Or does that look too suspicious? Can we start doing that when we declare war?

[sunrise089]

What he doesn't seem to have understood is that PP is just a trade chit, and he gets Chemistry (which he actually does want) in return. We're going to Rifling anyway, so he'll either bulb it, or pick it up in trade: it's the same difference.

We need to remind him that PAL can't build Frigates without Astro!

I suggest we go over our proposal again, emphasising the benefits. He's admitted to not ever completing a game of CIV, so I think we can hammer home our points without him taking umbrage.

EDIT: Ninja'd by sooooo in between 'preview' and 'post'

EDIT2: skip the A for B for C. Let's keep it simple - 'PAL embargo'.

I know we've covered this with Banana, but if we're talking about a PAL embargo then should we bring up closing borders again?

[MyOtherCar]

I agree: just say 'no' to PAL!