Turnplayer Thread #3

[mostly-harmless]

I don't think much negotiations will take place. Like in the past we will just offer the deal in-game the moment we have Engineering, I suggest. The settler will not be a Twin Peaks by then.

mh

[T-hawk]

On Saxon, I don't think Moai has anywhere near 54 hammers in it so far. I'm at work so can't look now either. If the turn hasn't rolled over by ~7 hours from now, I'll give it a full-blown math treatment too. (I have an Excel sheet to automate much of the math, which I used for China Beach.)

edit - I'll post the sheet later for rego (it's at home, can't grab it from work. VPN has been turned off this week for fear of the Conficker worm.)

[regoarrarr]

Can you post your spreadsheet? I have one that I've used but bugs keep cropping up in it and it isn't working exactly how I want

[Sullla]

FYI, Moai is at 8/250 in Saxon the Beach. Your mistake was that it only costs 250 shields, not 300.

My gut feeling really tells me whipping is the wrong move here. When each tile increases the food surplus (from +4 to +5 or better), whipping down to size 1 is the wrong move, IMO.

[regoarrarr]

But then the simulation is still valid, since it's 242 hammers to go (I guessed 246 so close)

[Sullla]

regoarrarr, I really appreciate you looking at this, and I'll try to do a closer look tonight. However, I can tell just by glancing at it, that the numbers are off, because the worker actions finish at different times than your simulations have them completing. So... jury is out until I have some time to look at this, which will be in about 2 hours.

[regoarrarr]

Well excellent. I encourage you (and t-hawk and anyone else) to take a look at things.

As I have said before, I'm not a very good civ player I think. I'm sure you are a better player than I am.

But I do like numbers, and I do occasionally have some time on my hands.

So, given that, I'd rather we crunch the numbers and make the best empirical decision that we can (when we can) rather than just relying on a gut reaction

[Sullla]

I ran the numbers and guess what? It looks pretty close either way. Prepare for a messy text table!

(0) T126
size 2, 5/24 food
Lighthouse 54/60, +3 [6] shields/turn (Moai 8/250)
1 commerce base center tile, 4 commerce trade routes

Lighthouse 1t (T127) 3/0/2
Camp 1t (T127) 4/0/0
Plantation 2t (T128) 2/0/4
Grassland hill mine 8t (1/3/0)
Grassland hill mine #2 14t (1/3/0)

Case #1: Do Not Whip Lighthouse, Max Growth
(0) T126 size 2, 5/24 food, +1 food, Lighthouse 54/60 +3[6] shields, 7 commerce: working lake and plains forest
(1) T127 size 2, 6/24 food, +5 food, Moai 8/250 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [14 total]: working deer and lake tiles
(2) T128 size 2, 11/24 food, +5 food, Moai 10/250 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [21]
(3) T129 size 2, 16/24 food, +5 food, Moai 12/250 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [28]
(4) T130 size 2, 21/24 food, +5 food, Moai 14/250 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [35]
(5) T131 size 3, 15/26 food (granary), +5 food, Moai 16/250 +1[2] shields, 11 commerce [46], add silk plantation (2/0/4)
(6) T132 size 3, 20/26 food, +5 food, Moai 16/250 +1[2] shields, 11 commerce [57]
(7) T133 size 3, 25/26 food, +5 food, Moai 18/250 +1[2] shields, 11 commerce [68]
(8) T134 size 4, 18/28 food, +4 food, Moai 20/250 +4[8] shields, 11 commerce [79], add grassland hill mine (1/3/0)
(9) T135 size 4, 22/28 food, +4 food, Moai 28/250 +4[8] shields, 11 commerce [90]
(10) T136 size 4, 26/28 food, +4 food, Moai 36/250 +4[8] shields, 11 commerce [101]
(11) T137 size 5, 17/30 food, +3 food, Moai 44/250 +6[12] shields, 11 commerce [112], add plains forest tile (1/2/0)
(12) T138 size 5, 20/30 food, +3 food, Moai 56/250 +6[12] shields, 11 commerce [123]
(13) T139 size 5, 23/30 food, +3 food, Moai 68/250 +6[12] shields, 11 commerce [134]
(14) T140 size 5, 26/30 food, +3 food, Moai 80/250 +7[14] shields, 11 commerce [145] swap to grassland hill mine #2
(15) T141 size 5, 29/30 food, +3 food, Moai 94/250 +7[14] shields, 11 commerce [156]
(16) T142 size 6, 18/32 food, +2 food, Moai 108/250 +9[18] shields, 11 commerce [167] add plains forest (1/2/0)
(17) T143 size 6, 20/32 food, +2 food, Moai 126/250 +9[18] shields, 11 commerce [178]
(18) T144 size 6, 22/32 food, +2 food, Moai 144/250 +9[18] shields, 11 commerce [189]
(19) T145 size 6, 24/32 food, +2 food, Moai 162/250 +9[18] shields, 11 commerce [200]
(20) T146 size 6, 26/32 food, +2 food, Moai 180/250 +9[18] shields, 11 commerce [211]

Presumably would have finished Moai by now, with a forest chop, but not included to make calculations easier.


Case #2: Whip Lighthouse
(0) T126 size 1, 5/22 food, +2 food, Lighthouse 114/60 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [7]: working lake tile (2/0/2)
(1) T127 size 1, 7/22 food, +4 food, Moai 56/250 +1[2] shields, 5 commerce [12]: working deer tile (4/0/0)
(2) T128 size 1, 11/22 food, +4 food, Moai 58/250 +1[2] shields, 5 commerce [17]
(3) T129 size 1, 15/22 food, +4 food, Moai 60/250 +1[2] shields, 5 commerce [22]
(4) T130 size 1, 19/22 food, +4 food, Moai 62/250 +1[2] shields, 5 commerce [27]
(5) T131 size 2, 13/24 food, +5 food, Moai 64/250 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [34], add lake tile (3/0/2)
(6) T132 size 2, 18/24 food, +5 food, Moai 66/250 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [41]
(7) T133 size 2, 22/24 food, +5 food, Moai 68/250 +1[2] shields, 7 commerce [48]
(8) T134 size 3, 16/26 food, +5 food, Moai 70/250 +1[2] shields, 11 commerce [59], add silk plantation (2/0/4)
(9) T135 size 3, 21/26 food, +5 food, Moai 72/250 +1[2] shields, 11 commerce [70]
(10) T136 size 4, 14/28 food, +4 food, Moai 74/250 +4[8] shields, 11 commerce [81], add grassland hill mine (1/3/0)
(11) T137 size 4, 18/28 food, +4 food, Moai 82/250 +4[8] shields, 11 commerce [92]
(12) T138 size 4, 22/28 food, +4 food, Moai 90/250 +4[8] shields, 11 commerce [103]
(13) T139 size 4, 26/28 food, +4 food, Moai 98/250 +4[8] shields, 11 commerce [114]
(14) T140 size 5, 17/30 food, +3 food, Moai 106/250 +7[14] shields, 11 commerce [125], add grassland hill mine #2
(15) T141 size 5, 20/30 food, +3 food, Moai 120/250 +7[14] shields, 11 commerce [136]
(16) T142 size 5, 23/30 food, +3 food, Moai 134/250 +7[14] shields, 11 commerce [147]
(17) T143 size 5, 26/30 food, +3 food, Moai 148/250 +7[14] shields, 11 commerce [158]
(18) T144 size 5, 29/30 food, +3 food, Moai 162/250 +7[14] shields, 11 commerce [169]
(19) T145 size 6, 18/32 food, +2 food, Moai 176/250 +9[18] shields, 11 commerce [180], add plains forest (1/2/0)
(20) T146 size 6, 20/32 food, +2 food, Moai 194/250 +9[18] shields, 11 commerce [191]

Final Comparison
Whipping immediately gets us 14 extra shields at the cost of 20 commerce and 6 food. My take is this is essentially a wash either way - we could happily go with either. Even though shields and food have a higher value than commerce, I think I'd prefer to not whip and gain those extra beakers, at the cost of delaying Moai by what, one turn? But regoarrarr was right, it WAS a closer comparison than I thought. Thanks for making me run the numbers... I think!

[T-hawk]

Sullla has a math error on T10-T11 of not whipping. 26/28 food, +4 food, results in 16/30 food, not 17/30. 28 gets halved to 14 (the granary preserves half of the food box _before_ growth, not after) plus 2 overflow equals 16. This makes the size 6 growth come one turn later. I think there's a similar error on T4-T5.

I also see a different error on T5 to T6, Sullla has 16 hammers on both turns, forgot to add the 2.

I'm analyzing now with Excel, back in a bit.

[T-hawk]

Here's my version. I'm taking Sullla's word for what tiles are available when. My spreadsheet ignores trade route commerce, which is the same for both versions. I also went to full Moai completion because it's easy in a spreadsheet. Excel proof attached.

No whip:
T126, size 2, food 5/24, Lighthouse 54/60. +1F +3H x2. +2C. lake, forest
T127, size 2, food 6/24, Moai 8/250. +5F +1H x2. +4C. lake, deer
T128, size 2, food 11/24, Moai 10/250. +5F +1H x2. +4C.
T129, size 2, food 16/24, Moai 12/250. +5F +1H x2. +4C.
T130, size 2, food 21/24, Moai 14/250. +5F +1H x2. +4C.
T131, size 3, food 14/26, Moai 16/250. +5F +1H x2. +8C. add silks
T132, size 3, food 19/26, Moai 18/250. +5F +1H x2. +8C.
T133, size 3, food 24/26, Moai 20/250. +5F +1H x2. +8C.
T134, size 4, food 16/28, Moai 22/250. +4F +4H x2. +8C. add mine
T135, size 4, food 20/28, Moai 30/250. +4F +4H x2. +8C.
T136, size 4, food 24/28, Moai 38/250. +4F +4H x2. +8C.
T137, size 5, food 14/30, Moai 46/250. +3F +6H x2. +8C. add forest
T138, size 5, food 17/30, Moai 58/250. +3F +6H x2. +8C.
T139, size 5, food 20/30, Moai 70/250. +3F +6H x2. +8C.
T140, size 5, food 23/30, Moai 82/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C. change forest to mine
T141, size 5, food 26/30, Moai 96/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C.
T142, size 5, food 29/30, Moai 110/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C. add forest
T143, size 6, food 17/32, Moai 124/250. +2F +9H x2. +8C.
T144, size 6, food 19/32, Moai 142/250. +2F +9H x2. +8C.
T145, size 6, food 21/32, Moai 160/250. +2F +9H x2. +8C.
T146, size 6, food 23/32, Moai 178/250. +2F +9H x2. +8C.
T147, size 6, food 25/32, Moai 196/250. +2F +9H x2. +7C.
T148, size 6, food 27/32, Moai 214/250. +2F +9H x2. +7C.
T149, size 6, food 29/32, Moai 232/250. +2F +9H x2. +7C.
T150, size 6, food 31/32, Next build 0/xx.

Whip lighthouse:
T126, size 1, food 5/22, Lighthouse 114/60. +2F +1H x2. +4C. lake, forest
T127, size 1, food 7/22, Moai 8/250. +4F +1H +28H overflow x2. +2C. lake, deer
T128, size 1, food 11/22, Moai 66/250. +4F +1H x2. +2C.
T129, size 1, food 15/22, Moai 68/250. +4F +1H x2. +2C.
T130, size 1, food 19/22, Moai 70/250. +4F +1H x2. +2C.
T131, size 2, food 12/24, Moai 72/250. +5F +1H x2. +4C. add silks
T132, size 2, food 17/24, Moai 74/250. +5F +1H x2. +4C.
T133, size 2, food 22/24, Moai 76/250. +5F +1H x2. +4C.
T134, size 3, food 15/26, Moai 78/250. +5F +1H x2. +8C. add mine
T135, size 3, food 20/26, Moai 80/250. +5F +1H x2. +8C.
T136, size 3, food 25/26, Moai 82/250. +5F +1H x2. +8C.
T137, size 4, food 17/28, Moai 84/250. +4F +4H x2. +8C. add forest
T138, size 4, food 21/28, Moai 92/250. +4F +4H x2. +8C.
T139, size 4, food 25/28, Moai 100/250. +4F +4H x2. +8C.
T140, size 5, food 15/30, Moai 108/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C. add mine
T141, size 5, food 18/30, Moai 122/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C.
T142, size 5, food 21/30, Moai 136/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C.
T143, size 5, food 24/30, Moai 150/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C.
T144, size 5, food 27/30, Moai 164/250. +3F +7H x2. +8C.
T145, size 6, food 15/32, Moai 178/250. +2F +9H x2. +8C. add forest
T146, size 6, food 17/32, Moai 196/250. +2F +9H x2. +8C.
T147, size 6, food 19/32, Moai 214/250. +2F +9H x2. +7C.
T148, size 6, food 21/32, Moai 232/250. +2F +9H x2. +7C.
T149, size 6, food 23/32, Next build 0/xx. +5F +4H. +13C. change from hills and forest to Moai coast
T150, size 6, food 28/32, Next build 4/xx.

Sullla's hammer (NOT SHIELD) number is deceptive - remember Moai is doubled and it's only half that many base hammers towards the next build. I get only +4 base hammers, at the cost of 3 food and 12 commerce. Not worth the whip.

Also, if a forest chop does come in, not-whipping is that much more valuable, since it'll have one more citizen to start working a 2-1-2 Moai tile right away.

[regoarrarr]

:

I looked for the bow icon but I couldn't find it

And thanks for the spreadsheet!

ETA: Aaaaand the turn just rolled over anyways, so I'm glad not whipping was the right move!

[mostly-harmless]

Some news for T127:

PAL built the Parthenon in a city we don't know yet.
Banana still suffers from the slave revolt and lost one pop to it.
RB, well, RB "popped another one"!
Is it Iron you ask?
No, it's copper!
Is it in a safer place than the one we already have you ask?
No, its right on top of the old one!

The good news is, that Cape Town now pulls in 20hpt base = 40hpt for military.

mh

[Sullla]

Well, that was a lot of numbers for a small, size 2 city! Let's move on to T127, and thanks to mostly_harmless for the fast news update:

- As seen above, we popped a copper resource at Cape Town:



Now, far be it from me to look a gift horse in the mouth, but you'd think that someday we might manage to get a strategic resource that wasn't right on the border with an enemy civ. Anyway, this is still some pretty cool news. We get another two shields base at Cape Town, 40/turn when building military. Furthermore, Imperio would now have to pillage TWO tiles to cut off our access to metal, and that's a lot harder to do with a spy unit.

Also, I will continue to call them "shields" just because it irritates T-Hawk.

- PAL built the Parthenon, as reported above. That's one wonder I don't mind them having, to be honest.

- Saxon the Beach finished its lighthouse - naturally, not whipped - and has started on Moai. With the deer camp finishing this turn, the city is now running max food (+5/turn) while working the deer camp and lake tiles. This is the same setup as we have running in our spreadsheets above.

- Related worker question near Saxon, involving Winston:



He finished his mine at China Beach, and we made the tile swap off of the plains forest. Question: do we build the road here on this tile, or have Winston move immediately to help out at Bluebell Wood? I think the best move is to go ahead and complete the road, but wanted to run it by everyone else in case there's some sort of elaborate sequence of worker moves that helps our new city get up and running faster.

- Green Acres grew to size 5. Another two turns see it grow to size 6, where we swap to settler and whip. This settler is intended for the "red" spot in the northwest (unless we change our minds!)

- Mellow Yellow is due to have its forge whipped this turn. I haven't done it yet, but I will before the turn ends.

- Next turn, we'll finish the road between Pink Dot and Cape Town. So where do we send these workers next?



They can literally go just about anywhere. My thought, however, is that we keep one in the area to start preparing Twin Peaks, starting by farming the yellow boxed tile (to carry irrigation to the rice tile). Because it's within our borders, we can start that job, doing the farm + chop option to preserve the forest, and ideally completing right as the city is founded, to get an instant +30 shields on the first turn. I would also suggest that the other worker move to the northeast and start building a road to "red", our other city to be founded soon.

Of course, we can just as easily move these workers elsewhere, so... thoughts, suggestions?

- Imperio hasn't moved any of their units yet, so I haven't moved our Imperio scout units either. Will update this thread later depending on where their exploring chariot and eastern stack go. (From C&D, it looks likely that Uxmal just finished a galley, however.)

Final happy note: we are one turn away from Engineering tech, and even at 40% science are the #1 team in GNP! Of course, that's mainly because PAL is running 0% science this turn, but hey, we don't have to mention that fact.

[mostly-harmless]

No preference for the worker at China Beach.
Your plan to farm the forest for Twin Peaks sounds good.
For the other worker, is it a good idea, to hook up a 3rd wine? Or maybe mine the grass hill 4W of A1 for Twin Peaks?

mh

[ruff_hi]

My thought, however, is that we keep one in the area to start preparing Twin Peaks, starting by farming the yellow boxed tile (to carry irrigation to the rice tile). Because it's within our borders, we can start that job, doing the farm + chop option to preserve the forest, and ideally completing right as the city is founded, to get an instant +30 hammers on the first turn.

The only downside here is that we are telegraphing that we plan on putting a city either 1 tile E or 1 tile SE of the yellow boxed tile. Otherwise, why farm that tile? This will be obvious to the observant opponent.

I think we should cancel orders for that worker each turn so that the 'farming' action isn't on. The really observant opponent will still work it out but it will be much harder - the worker could just be roading.