I think a settler+archer in a boat has a high chance of success in terms of Imperio not blocking it, but it will still be a lot of work building the boat and units, and then shuttling over workers. The resources are probably better spent on military units at home helping us settle our last border city more quickly. As such, I also favor barracks in China Beach.
EDIT: I also suspect PAL will kill any settlement we build on "their" island.
EDIT: I also suspect PAL will kill any settlement we build on "their" island.
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