Immortal Beloved - Operational Planning

[Beta]

Guys! An observation!

You know that big 'mistake' we made earlier on building the two temples instead of granaries - well, it may be a blessing now. Shriber's post about all the things we, Vox, have done wrong got me thinking - and for the first time in ages I checked the score under the F8 tab - but for culture only.

We clearly have about twice the culture points as GS. And this is a major factor in cultural conversions of cities - and the propensity of cities to convert back to their previous owners. It may help offset the distance from capitol factor.

This may be very useful in the near future - and something we will need to keep in mind when we are deciding to raze or capture cities.

[HarryH]

I knew we were doing better in culture than GS. I had not looked at the histograph in a while to know how much better. I will see if I can find in the archive the info about how the conversion calculation is done. It would be nice to have so we can an idea of the chances of a conversion and make some educated guesses about razing. I remember the talk about what goes into determining a conversion but I do not remember if an actual formula was posted.

[Beta]

Got it here Harry. Culture Flipping Exposed. By a member of Firaxis. Great thread. I use it a lot.

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?threadid=39825

[Konquest02]

In the PTW (or is it just the latest patches), the flip formula has been a little modified in order to make garrisoning of units a more reliable way to fight the dreaded conversion.

[HarryH]

Thanks. You saved me sometime searching for it. As I thought it talks about what goes into the calculation but there is no specific formula. A lot of people were guessing in the thread but no one except for maybe Soren know the real formula.

[Beta]

Originally posted by Konquest02
In the PTW (or is it just the latest patches), the flip formula has been a little modified in order to make garrisoning of units a more reliable way to fight the dreaded conversion.

Oooh - I wasn't aware of that. Makes sense though. I remember some earlier SP games, where you would have a dozen units in the city and still lose it - and the units.

[HarryH]

I remember the later changes. After wading through that thread I found a reference to this one:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=51715

which lead me to this one that has a couple of nice posts from Soren:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=48254&highlight=culture

[HarryH]

Here is a pic showing the area around the GS capital. I marked the locations of four known cities and the potential area of there iron source based on Beta's intel. I filled in some terrain areas either because we can see part of the tile or based GS description of their land.

http://apolyton.net/upload/files/HarryH/GS_invasion_x01.jpg

The arrows mark the invasion routes. More about this tonight. I need to get to work.

Kon, the eastern city I marked is one tile NW of the one you had in your pic based on an early view we had of the GS border that went around that mountain tip N of my site.

[Beta]

Right on, Harry. I think the four red dots should represent our initial objectives. I sincerely hope the iron is where you have suggested. We will find out soon enough.

Given the two advance routes - the one thing we will need to make sure of is that the timing is coordinated. I suspect they are putting a chariot counter-attack force together in double-quick time - and if the two advances proceed simultaneously - they can't be two places at once.

Oh - for a second galley.

[Konquest02]

Ok... Good point Harry. The way you have it there, we can cut the iron and then attack. I think we msut stick to mountains as much as possible, to avoid that chariot counter-attack they are preparing...

[mjmacy]

I agree with Beta, we need to make it so they can't put all their chariots in the same place

[Beta]

So - it looks like it is agreed. Harry's plan is the way to go. Two Immortal incursions - roughly on the path indicated - and timed as closely as we can.

The timing will be dictated by how long the main force takes to go up and through the mountains. The guys in the east will be exposed in the meantime - but I think GS is going to need some time to prepare.

And a small diversion of two or three troops to take Monsoon.

[Wittlich]

Sure. I'll go with that plan.

[Beta]

HOW BIG IS THE GS MILITARY?

AND WHAT DO WE HAVE GoW REPORT?

I went back and reviewed the saves for the last 1300 years. Here is what it shows. The first number is the date - then the size of our military (including galleys but excluding settlers and workers), and then what the mil. advisor indicated the strength of our military was relative to GS.

1990bc....6...average
1700bc....6...weak
1400bc....6...weak
1100bc....9...average
1075bc....9...average
1050bc...12...strong
1025bc...12...strong
1000bc...15...strong
0775bc...27...strong

Now, the quick conclusion is that their military is somewhere around 9 or 10. But they may have grown somewhat by then - and it may not be obvious as we have grown very quickly. However, it is safe to assume we have a numerical superiority now - as well as a strength superiority from Immortals. How long this will last when they kick their economy into full war production has yet to be seen. I still think they will be surprised by our numbers.

So - back over to the recent message from GoW, we probably have considerable leeway in 'undersizing' the reports of our army size for it still to be believable to GS. We should probably peg it around 17 to be safe. Then again - GS can also assume there are units up north that Ghengis did not see.

So - GS knows about 3 warriors and 2 spearmen and at least 3 immortals. Harry, Mo, and Eli.

We have Ghengis report - at least one spearman in Elipolis. Eli on the hill. 3 more Immortals on the road. 5 spearmen on the road. That is 16 units. Our galley makes 17, and any units up noth would add to it.

Sound OK?

[Wittlich]

Looks good to me. What does everyone else think?