DIPLO: GoW comments

[DeepO]

Shiber, moving the catapult 7 would mean we lose it next turn to a bunch of immortals. Not the best idea

Maybe they have brought more troops, they have 2 galleys near us, so another 2 spears is possible. However, is that realistical? Sure, they told us that only 2 horsies were in those boats, but also that both were transferred on the first boat, the other one being empty (which was supposed to scout for us). In reality, they used the filled boat for scouting, so the other one could have returned home, to pick up some troops, and would nearly get here in time, I think.

So theoretically, I think it's possible, but they also know we have pikes and med inf, and they did not have the time to load pikes. Further, they aren't doing superbly on troop strength, if we already passed them in the mil advisor, and they have nearly as many cities, and more territory to defend. We are cramming to get our defenses together, how could they spare 4 units on a long distance war? That would mean 15% of their forces or about that, which is very significantly if you really expect a war on your home turf.

DeepO

[alva]

I agree it's a strange move, but just to land with 2 horsie is too.

They are not even helping Vox with this (maybe a little), they would have better dropping their units in the south or something like that...

[Shiber]

Originally posted by DeepO
Shiber, moving the catapult 7 would mean we lose it next turn to a bunch of immortals. Not the best idea

Oops. I'm blind as a bat without the grid.

[DeepO]

Well, the catapult could move 14, and strike at the same tile without being dangerous to lose it. But I don't think our generals are going to do that to fend of horsies, when a couple of immortals are only 1 tile away.

And Alva, I can't agree more, landing with 2 horsies is either dumb (whiich I don't buy), or signals something else, bigger, something we don't have enough info to see what's going on. I would expect some more troops as well, if only GoW could spare them from their defense.

DeepO

[Arrian]

We probably want that cat in Arashi to deal with the main Voxian attack.

But our WCs should attack and destroy the GoW landing party.

Ok, gotta run fellas... this will probably be over by the time I log on again. Damn!

-Arrian

[Shiber]

You can say that I'm counting my eggs before I have them, but... I did some math, with the help of CFC's Combat Calculator.
I take it that we have 3 vet WCs and one healthy elite within range of GoW's two horses. That means that in order for GoW to remain with any forces on our continent after we're done attacking, they'll have to win three out of four battles - one vs. an elite, two vs. vets.
Having taken the worse possible case (two elite horsemen), I came to the result that GoW's chances of survival are 32.8% * 47.3% * 47.3% ~ 7.34%. Nice.
Next turn, we'll know for sure whether we are absolutely cursed or whether we have a chance in this game. :hope:

[Theseus]

Did you put the defenders on a hill?

[Shiber]

I have.
Isn't it amazing?

Edit: I hope I haven't made any idiotic mistakes.
Btw, there's a chance that an immortal will win a defensive battle and get upgraded. An upgrade regenerates one HP, so it could slightly throw off my results. Still, I'd neglect this effect, since upgrades are more rare when a unit wins a defensive battle (AFAIK), and chances are that our WCs will retreat before losing the battle (we're talking vets and an elite here).

[Theseus]

Originally posted by Shiber
Btw, there's a chance that an immortal will win a defensive battle and get upgraded.

Do you mean a Horseman? I thought you said they were elites anyway...

[asleepathewheel]

One thing overlooked so far, I think, is that Vox might have moved their 3 immortal, 1 spear (?) stack A88 to M6 on the road. We would then have to take out that stack to get to the horses.

[Shiber]

Originally posted by Theseus
Do you mean a Horseman?

#1
Yes, I do.

I thought you said they were elites anyway...

#2
I'm so stupid. I forgot that I assumed the worse case...
Thanks for correcting me Theseus.

[Aeson]

I think GF's comment to me was true. They were trying to goad one of us into making a stink on the public forums about them landing...when they didn't really land. There just isn't anything else to gain by lying and saying they didn't land. We see the truth before anything can change anyways.

Of course telling me doesn't fit either... who knows. Maybe they are hoping we don't notice their Horsemen on our shores?

[Shiber]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
One thing overlooked so far, I think, is that Vox might have moved their 3 immortal, 1 spear (?) stack A88 to M6 on the road. We would then have to take out that stack to get to the horses.

If I were Vox, and I knew nothing about GoW's attack (major assumption here), I'd actually move 4, to M9. If you're opening a second front, it's wiser to keep the two as far away from each other IMHO - that way less defenders on one front will be able to double as defenders on the second front (not that this rule would apply in this particular case, but Vox doesn't know what we have in Arashi).
In any case, I'm crossing my fingers that they haven't moved to M6.

[Shiber]

My own thoughts: let's just not respond to this. They've probably hoped that we'd scream war on the public forum. Obviously that didn't happen, so let's just not talk about this anymore - any mention of how their plan completely failed will only make them mad.
With any luck, they'll pretend that we have normal relations again and respect the NDA.

[DeepO]

I still think it would be a good idea to post one little sentence to GF: "GF, please check the military advisor before landing troops on our territory"
Of course they will do it anyway, but it is a subtle threat, and shows that we are serious when it comes to not being crossed.

If we want a real threat, we can always say: "GF, what would happen if we would go full steam on Chivalry, and giving it to ND if they agree to attack you 2 turns after receiving it? That would mean Ansar's in 7 turns on your territory..."

DeepO