Turn 244 : 1270 AD Part II

[DeepO]

Originally posted by vulture
If we need a good name for the maneouver, how about "operation cross dresser", given the importance of the trannies involved (or were they secretely DDs dressed up as transports), it seems appropriate.

I like that a lot!

Might it be worth saving the bombers for attacking tanks as and when they are exposed. With 8 attack, they aren't that great odds vs the infantry, but can do more damage vs the tanks (defence 8.8). That might increase the no. of hps damage done by bombers, although to tanks rather than infantry. Not sure if that would make a difference, but if the problem is being 3 or 4 attackers short, you never know.

Doesn't that gets down to same problem? We have less hps on the tanks, but more on the infs. And as these are harder, we end up losing more units on them again.

I'm thinking on tanks, and retreating. And also on how we can maximize the hp we've got on those marines. All the marines can be lost, if every single hp was used to its fullest extent, meanwhile trying to keep the chances of promotions down.

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Hey Vulture - I think CoD & Python have the crossdresser market sewn up in the DG2 You MASTers are always up to mischief!

'Watergrogged' is looking strong.

[DeepO]

You know what? I'm starting to dread that one lost tank when the transport halted, and also the one MI we brought which only defends the stack instead of only attacking Stanwix. If it gets down to 1 Lego unit, this will be a major problem

Good thing we took both Karina and Legopolis, at least we crippled them.

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Given the probability that GoW won't break through, Lego would presumably first destroy the remains of the coalition in the north, then hit us in the south with everything that's left. Would that be much?

[Cort Haus]

ND could nearly finish the job if they wanted to this turn. Rush a trannie in that near-Lego city during the prod-phase, stick a Marine and some Ansars/Settlers in and bingo.

Erm, Do ND have Amphib, btw?

[vulture]

Another thought:

if GoW fail to break through, but only one or two units are left, should they then try for propaganda? Even if its only a 5-10% chance, (assuming they get a spy in succesfully) it's worth a go, given whats at stake. Basically they have a chance with either 1 or 1-3 units left, depending on their culture (I'm assuming that they're either impressed or unimpressed with Lego's culture, which translates to unimpressed or impressed for Lego's view of GoW's culture, which is what counts). I'm also assuming that for a city of size 1, the chance to get the city is the chance of converting a single citizen, which makes sense but might not be the actual game mechanic.

[DeepO]

Credit where it's due... I already suspected something like this, but didn't find the quote before.

Originally posted by vulture
For those who are interested, if Sandronico were completely undefended on land, our odds of taking out the 4/4 BB to get through to it using 7 transports (i.e. the marines' transports) is 9.7%

This was posted a page before Theseus mentioning it. I knew something was wrong, because I commented on it before T's quote.

For those interested:
Vulture's post
Theseus' post

We're still not going to call it Vulture's gambit, though

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
Given the probability that GoW won't break through, Lego would presumably first destroy the remains of the coalition in the north, then hit us in the south with everything that's left. Would that be much?

In the South, we're relatively safe. In case they have some cities left, we'll be safer... as that way, they won't put all their infs into attacking us. I tried to make it so that 16 tanks could not break through, not at the radar tower, nor the grass which we need to road, nor NI (NI is safe in any case, with the current numbers Lego can't break through)

But it's difficult to predict what they will do. In case GoW can't break through, I guess Lego will clean up. We got some 17 tanks out in the open, unprotected (6 from the cities, 11 left over after the attack if I got the numbers right). These are easy prey... but will also leave Lego open for counterattack. All those workers divided around the place are actually quite cool: if GoW does not destroy all those cities, Lego is not going to bother wasting units on that bate, unless they can retreat their units into cities.

Whatever happens next, Lego is going to have a very difficult time defending. They have fallen for the doughnut attack, we can reach nearly all their cities now.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
ND could nearly finish the job if they wanted to this turn. Rush a trannie in that near-Lego city during the prod-phase, stick a Marine and some Ansars/Settlers in and bingo.

Erm, Do ND have Amphib, btw?

Yes they do. If we want to ask them, we've got to be fast: they already have the safe.

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by vulture
For those who are interested, if Sandronico were completely undefended on land, our odds of taking out the 4/4 BB to get through to it using 7 transports (i.e. the marines' transports) is 9.7%

:applause:

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by DeepO

Yes they do. If we want to ask them, we've got to be fast: they already have the safe.

DeepO

Well how about it? It's about time they did something to knock out their main rival (apart from scrounging cheap tech off us).

[DeepO]

Originally posted by vulture
Another thought:

if GoW fail to break through, but only one or two units are left, should they then try for propaganda? Even if its only a 5-10% chance, (assuming they get a spy in succesfully) it's worth a go, given whats at stake. Basically they have a chance with either 1 or 1-3 units left, depending on their culture (I'm assuming that they're either impressed or unimpressed with Lego's culture, which translates to unimpressed or impressed for Lego's view of GoW's culture, which is what counts). I'm also assuming that for a city of size 1, the chance to get the city is the chance of converting a single citizen, which makes sense but might not be the actual game mechanic.

Good thinking, this might work. The cost isn't going to be extremely high.

However, GoW has commented on numeruous occasions that they don't have a spy, as otherwise ND wouldn't be investigating for them. I don't know if they have the CIA built.

DeepO

[Aeson]

Defensive bombardment can be somewhat nullified by attacking with units which have less attack power. Losing an Infantry HP is going to hurt much less than losing a Tank HP. Also defensive bombardment can't do anything against a 1 HP unit. GoW should try to take all defensive bombardments possible with their Infantry I think.

As DeepO says, best targets for the Infantry are the Elites. I'd include all Tanks too. A 2 HP Infantry should lose to the Tank, but Lego doesn't get a promotion generally unless the next unit that attacks the Tank loses too. So a 2 HP Infantry can almost be viewed as bombardment if the damaged units are finished off with Marines or Tanks.

Tanks have Blitz, so they should be saved for 1 and 2 HP Infantry, which they can often kill 2 of even at low HPs themselves.

I think using some basic rules for when to attack with what, GoW can still have better than even odds to take the city. I just ran through a scenario twice with preserve random seed off. Once with 26 Artillery, once with 17. As I'm using C3C the Artillery target the units first.

The scenario is using very close to the same number of units (no 1/4 units, just Conscripts instead of 2/X or 1/X HP units, Regulars instead of 3/X HP units, Veterans instead of 4/5 HP units. Lego benefits from this because they get better promotion odds, which then count towards later battles, while GoW's promotions don't help at all except with the Tanks.

The first time I got through with 12 Marines, 9 Infantry, and 1 Tank left available to attack. Second time I got through with 8 Marines, 1 Infantry left available to attack.

I'll run it some more with 17 bombardments.

[Cort Haus]

We have to head them off at the pass to stop them blabbing to Lego anyway, as Trip warned, so why not invite them to the party? We want this thing over quickly right?

[DeepO]

I'll send a note to ND, asking them to hold on with the save, as there might be a couple of things to ask them. I didn't have time to check if it was possible, or not... and we'd have to arrange this with GoW as well.

DeepO