Turn 244 : 1270 AD Part II

[DeepO]

No, no hill... and you're right, it's cities that get the 50%, not towns.

AFAIK, defensive bombardment only hit when you're not 1/4. Otherwise, it just waits. We don't know yet if we took the hits for GoW or not (I surely hope we took the hits), so that is going to make a difference.

But otherwise... Lego only has 8 4/4 infs left, and no 3/4 infs. With your 17 hp lost from bombardment, there won't be a single 3/4 inf... all would be 2/4.

Further, I'm not sure how you calculate the tanks. These have already been promoted... they would be best left for the 1 and 2 hp attackers. the 2/4 infs have to be taken by the best unit available, meaning the marines (I think. tanks might do a good job in case they retreat)

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Maybe Lego will try a propaganda against NI.

[Arrian]

!!!!!

Oh my. Oh my oh my oh my oh my.

Rock on!

-Arrian, off to read the first turn thread.

[DeepO]

Have fun, Arrian. It's a tiny amount of text

DeepO

[DeepO]

CH, let's not give them any ideas!!
A good thing I pumped its pop with 3 workers, it makes it a lot harder to succeed in propaganda

DeepO

[DeepO]

okay, plucked from the CFC thread Krill was so kind to provide:

Expose Enemy Spy
Same probabilities as above, except you always fail if the enemy does not have a spy.

Initiate Propaganda
You will never get caught

The chance of persuading each citizen are:

spy + government + culture - 5 * units - improvment - capital

Where:
spy - 10 for veteran spies, 0 for regular
improvment - 20 if the city has courthouse, 0 otherwise
capital - 40 for the capital, 0 otherwise
units - number of units in garison

gov modifier is 0 in our case

culture I'm not sure... I think we're unimpressed, but I haven't checked this in game.

Culture factors
Disdainful 3
Dismissive 5
Unimpressed 10
Impressed by 20
Admires of 25
In awe of 30

----
that gives a chance of 0 + 0 + 10 -5*29 - 0 - 0 = -135% of succeeding in turning Stanwix.

So, not possible.

Oh, and NI is safe as well, it has some 80 units in it, so a -400% chance of succeeding to turn 1 citizen (and you need 2).

Nice idea, though!

DeepO

[Arrian]

Originally posted by DeepO
Have fun, Arrian. It's a tiny amount of text

DeepO

Done.

Amazing stuff. I love that it came down to hitting BBs with Trannies. That's awesome. A huge to both Theseus (original mention of attacking with transports), Aeson ("hey, can we bring over some arty?") and DeepO for carrying it off.

Then great work maximizing the damage.

Ok, stage 1 (ripping Lego's guts out) accomplished (though not entirely finished).

Stage 2 - ND?



Gosh, we're a bunch of evil warmongers. No wonder we ended up with GoW as an ally.

-Arrian

[vulture]

Shame about the probabilities being that bad. Still, it means we didn't miss an easy opportunity last turn.

Promotions of units to elite (and generation of leaders) are all handled by the stack combat generator. Lego, incidentally, is very likely to get a leader next turn defending for Stanwix, if they haven't done so already this turn.

[Cort Haus]

Vulture, they've got an Infantry Army in Abeliene from last turn.

[Arrian]

Let us thank our lucky stars this is PTW, not Conquests. Armies in Conquests

-Arrian

[DeepO]

Originally posted by vulture
Promotions of units to elite (and generation of leaders) are all handled by the stack combat generator.

well, can you specify that certain units are not promotable? All those elites, stay elite. If they generate leaders or not is not important, they have to be destroyed.

Also, what bout defensive bombardment? Does anyone have an idea on whether to take into account 11, or 27 arts? It makes a big difference: nearly all our wins last turn against Stanwix, were after bombardment failed.

Lego, incidentally, is very likely to get a leader next turn defending for Stanwix, if they haven't done so already this turn.

If you mean with our attack: no they haven't received one. no elite battles, and only one promotion.

DeepO

[vulture]

Originally posted by DeepO

well, can you specify that certain units are not promotable? All those elites, stay elite. If they generate leaders or not is not important, they have to be destroyed.

Each unit in the calculation has an experience level as well as a no. of hps, so it is known whether it is veteran, elite, elite*. Elites can be promoted to elite*, but gain no hp from it. There was a bug in earler versions where I forgot to specify that elite*s couldn't get promoted, which lead to bizarre results occasionally when one unit got promoted and started receiving random numbers of hitpoints per turn...

Also, what bout defensive bombardment? Does anyone have an idea on whether to take into account 11, or 27 arts? It makes a big difference: nearly all our wins last turn against Stanwix, were after bombardment failed.

I've assumed 11, but I've not tested whether that is right or not. But since we know that units can bombard and defensive bombard on the same turn (and bombard twice if they change hands, as I'm sure we all remember ) then I wouldn't rule it out.

[DeepO]

okay, let's get some kind of attack plan going for GoW, to get those odds better. It's obvious that they will have to continue, until there are more defenders left than possible attacks. But before that time, let's maximize their chances.

recap:
GoW's troops:
- 26 marines
- 2 reg marines
- 1 3/5 marine
- 26 artillery (shouldn't that be 27?)
- 1 settler
- 2 1/4 tank
- 2 2/4 tank
- 1 3/4 tank
- 17 2/4 inf
- 1 2/5 inf
- 1 1/4 inf

Lego's troops:
- 4 2/5 T
- 2 3/5 T
- 3 4/5 T
- 1 3/4 T
- 2 1/4 T
- 29 art (possibly 16 of which have already fired)
- 3 Cav
- 2 1/4 Inf
- 3 2/4 Inf
- 1 2/5 Inf
- 7 4/4 Inf
- 1 4/5 Inf

if we anticipate 17 hp off the inf with the bombing, we should get to:


(ordered in which they will defend)

we want to keep vet units from getting a promotion. So, elite units shuld be attacked with those units that have the biggest chance of getting killed. Those 4/5 tanks better be attacked with 1/4 infs and 2/4 infs. 1/4 first, 2 1/4 infs should get 1hp of a tank. a 2/4 inf should get another hp off a tank.
So, with 2 1/4 I, and 1 2/4 I spent, you get to:

- 1 3/4 T
- 5 3/5 T
- 10 2/4 Inf
- 2 2/5 Inf
- 4 2/5 T
- 3 Cav
- 2 1/4 Inf
- 2 1/4 T

Next, the 3/4 T. Best unit here, would be a vet marine. it should knock 2 hp off (conservative estimate).

Next, 5 3/5 T need 5 2/4 inf to knock 1 hp off.

After 2 1/4 I, 6 2/4 I, 1 M, we get to

- 10 2/4 Inf
- 2 2/5 Inf
- 9 2/5 T
- 3 Cav
- 2 1/4 Inf
- 3 1/4 T

for the 2/4 infs, we need marines. 10 marines --> 10 hp (actually, 30% of the 2/4 I should be destroyed, while another 30% or so is undamaged. Precise calculations should be better here).

the 2/5 I can be attacked by 2/4 I. 2 2/4 I shuld bring them 2 hp down.

After 2 1/4 I, 8 2/4 I, 11 M, we get to

- 9 2/5 T
- 3 Cav
- 12 1/4 Inf
- 2 1/5 inf
- 3 1/4 T

9 2/4 I attack the 2/5 T. 9 hp off.
The cavs... I don't know. Attack them with marines? 3 M destroy 3 cav.

after 2 1/4 I, 17 2/4 I, 14 M, Lego is reduced to:

- 12 1/4 Inf
- 2 1/5 inf
- 3 1/4 T
- 9 1/5 T

GoW still has:
- 12 M
- 2 reg M
- 1 3/5 M
- 2 1/4 tank
- 2 2/4 tank
- 1 3/4 tank
- 1 2/5 inf

You're right, this is getting awfully close. 12 M take out 12 1/4 I. 2 reg M take out 2 1/5 I. 1 3/5 M should take out 1 1/4 T.

Leaves:
Lego:
- 2 1/4 T
- 9 1/5 T
GoW:
- 2 1/4 tank
- 2 2/4 tank
- 1 3/4 tank
- 1 2/5 inf

This won't work, they can't reach it. This is only average, but results could be worse or better

Hmmm... I'll try again. What went wrong here, where is the waste?

DeepO

[DeepO]

I'm certain that there has to be a certain recipe we can use, to maximize our chances... It's only a matter of finding that. But I agree, it doesn't look good.

DeepO

[vulture]

If we need a good name for the maneouver, how about "operation cross dresser", given the importance of the trannies involved (or were they secretely DDs dressed up as transports), it seems appropriate.

DeepO: Yup, at the first look, average luck isn't quite going to cut it.

Might it be worth saving the bombers for attacking tanks as and when they are exposed. With 8 attack, they aren't that great odds vs the infantry, but can do more damage vs the tanks (defence 8.8). That might increase the no. of hps damage done by bombers, although to tanks rather than infantry. Not sure if that would make a difference, but if the problem is being 3 or 4 attackers short, you never know.

Any chance we could persuade Vox to switch sides and do a little bit of damage

GoW might just have to for it and hope for a bit of good luck.