I can't beleive I didn't know....

[rah]

It would be nice toget a solid answer though. I didn't test with a lot of rigor. I'm lazy.

[DrSpike]

How lazy were you? I expect ST is right for SP, but you may also be right for MP...........quite a lot more annoying to test though.

[rah]

Originally posted by DrSpike
..........quite a lot more annoying to test though.

Yep,

[DrSpike]

You didn't indicate how lazy you meant by lazy.

Did you test it properly, or do you mean your prior from playing is that there is no effect?

[rah]

No, I actually did a test. Tried to steal against one dip, then against three dips. My laziness was that we tried only about 10 for each. If I remember correctly, the number for thwarting was exactly the same in both circumstances. 10 was no where near enough, but the other players showed up, and playing is always more important than testing.

RAH

[SlowThinker]

Theoretically the probablility of success for 3 dips should be 0.8*0.8*0.8

[DrSpike]

Of course multiple offensive dips provide a higher overall chance of success.......but we were discussing whether additional defensive dips raise the chances of foiling the offensive diplo.

[DrSpike]

And slightly more pickily using your methodology would mean multiple dips always have less chance than a sole dip.........since multiplying makes the probability smaller.

[rah]

HAHAHAHAH.
Yep, I believe addition is more appropriate in that equation.

And I'm glad that he was talking about offensive use, since nobody has claimed a defensive improvement for a long time.

RAH

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by rah
HAHAHAHAH.
Yep, I believe addition is more appropriate in that equation.

Almost,.......the actual probability of success with 3 offensive dips is 0.8 + 0.8*0.2 + 0.2^2*0.8 = 99%

So if you fail with 3 you know it is not your night.

[rah]

Opps, yes.. Senior moment.

I thought I tried multiples once on someone and they both failed. I was thinking that the seed number didn't change on an attempt so no matter how many times you tried without changing the seed, you failed. You would have to do something inbetween that did change the seed.

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by rah
I thought I tried multiples once on someone and they both failed. I was thinking that the seed number didn't change on an attempt so no matter how many times you tried without changing the seed, you failed. You would have to do something inbetween that did change the seed.

Hmm that is possible, but you could just have been unlucky (4% chance if the 2 tries are independent).

Is there a precedent with seed saving in a similar situation in Civ2?

[rah]

Don't know of any off the top of my head, but I too figured the Odds were way against it if they were independent, so I started to think of ways it could be dependent and could only come up with the seed not changing. The only thing that makes sense is that if you had movement points left you might try again, and it would be silly if you succeeded with the same diplo a second time. So maybe the programmers thought of that and didn't change the seed on an attempt.

Sounds like we need some testing *sigh*.

[SlowThinker]

0.8*0.8*0.8 is probability of successsss with 3 defending dips. It is like the attacking dip has to walk around each defending dip.

[DrSpike]

You've lost me mate.