Science 950BC

[atawa]

Dear fellow citizens:

The plan for getting Mon or Poly from a hut has failed sofar, we got Rep but with all our units we cant change gouverment without disbanding half of them

On the bright side: we have so much useless tech now that the chance of getting Poly or Mon from a hut should be greatly increased from last session.

We are about 10 turns from Poly and with our current techrate we should reach Mon in about 50 turns

What do the citizens want, discover Poly so we can attack our enemy's or save the bulbs for in case we get Poly from a hut?

EDIT: please read bulbs in the poll where it says shields, you have 3 days.

[atawa]

Our science:

:

Edit: ok, for some reason I can only attach pictures as an attachment, not on screen, above is the link...........

[cavebear]

Bulbs = ?

[atawa]

Science units? How do you call them?

[Six Thousand Year Old Man]

I don't think delaying poly in case we get it or Monarchy from a hut is a good idea. We may open a hut, and get some other tech, which sets us even further back.

Samson's hut thread, in the Strategy forum, might be a good place to look, to see how probable either tech is from our next hut.

[cavebear]

Originally posted by atawa
Science units? How do you call them?

Oh. "Beakers". They are laboratory flasks used for mixing or pouring chemicals. They *do* look like bulbs though, don't they? Just never looked at them that way.

[atawa]

I knew that.

Samson's hut thread, in the Strategy forum, might be a good place to look, to see how probable either tech is from our next hut.

Do you have a link for this, sounds interesting

[cavebear]

At this point, I think we are so far from getting Monarchy through research that I think our best option is to go ahead popping huts. We have the units to find many of them, and the AI is running out of crappy techs to give us.

Personally, I suspect the AI has decided that it has given us too many units and too much gold, and that it has reverted to techs.

Looking at the tech chart, the only second column techs left are mathematics, feudalism, mysticism, and polytheism. I don't think (just a guess) it will award feudalism, as monarchy is a prerequisite, though I'd be delighted to put pikesmen in our cities in place of warriors. And I'd be glad to have it give us polytheism for the elephants and because that would allow us to choose a new tech to research and might include monarchy (in which case we would give full attention to research).

My preference is to keep popping huts. When you're in a hole, you might as well dig for gold...

[Sparrowhawk]

I think that all are worried too much about that fact that we have not yet gotten Monarchy, while it may be late to be getting it I agree, I am confident we will soon to be finding it from a hut.

Ironically, knowing that Invention stops "Scrolls of Ancient Wisom" actually works to our advantage here.
Methinks that popping huts can only result in one of Mathematics, Bridge Building, Trade, Engineering, Mysticism, Polytheism, or Monarchy.

While I admit past history suggests that Poly and Monarchy will be 6th and 7th in that list, I think it makes sense to continue popping huts (and trading with any new civs we find if we do) to try and get monarchy by huts rather then research, as the best way for us to increase our research is by getting into monarchy (Sparrowhawk states the obvious).

To answer the poll more directly, we need to save what we have researched, in case we get Polytheism from a hut, so that we can get Monarchy all that much quicker.

Just my two cents.
Sparrowhawk

[atawa]

Originally posted by cavebear
Looking at the tech chart, the only second column techs left are mathematics, feudalism, mysticism, and polytheism.

Yes, we have all the crappy techs allready so the next couple should be good

Even Mys would make it worthwhile to build some temlpes.

[Six Thousand Year Old Man]

Originally posted by atawa


Do you have a link for this, sounds interesting

Why yes, I do :

link

and..

from samson:
Scrolls

The result of a scroll outcome can be any unacquired Civilization Advance for which the Civ has all prerequisites.

The chance of obtaining a specific Advance can be calculated by listing the position numbers of possible advances in an alphabetically-ordered list of all advances (as under @Civilize in Rules.txt). An advance's chance of selection is statistically equal to the distance between its position and the position of the advance above it (wrapping the list from bottom to top).

In a nutshell, out of the remaining tech choices, Monarchy has 5 chances in 93 of appearing. Polytheism, 8 in 93.

edit: but feel free to check my math

[cavebear]

But do you really think we have the prerequisites for 93 techs? I don't. I think it will look at columns of techs and tend to provide them in that general order.

Now, might it be set so that some some techs are less likely to be given? Yes. But I don't have evidence of that.

I do note, though that it has given us all the first column techs and most of the second column techs, and only a couple of the third column techs. And one fourth. That does not suggest random gifts of any and all techs for which the requisites are met.

We have 7 of 7 of the first column, 7 of 11 of the 2nd column, 2 of 10 of the 3rd column, and 1 of 9 of the 4th column. I'll bet it backfills to complete the 2nd column before offerring much of the 3rd and 4th (or beyond).

I even suspect there is a pattern here.

[atawa]

STYOM: Thanks for the link, forgot about that thread.

One problem I see that this was tested with 2.42 not with MGE, the results might be different.

I also only see a calculation for the first couple of techs (the first collumn)

Has anyone tested this in later play eg do the chance of getting a tech from the second collumn higher then the third or fourth?

CB is making a good point on this and I would think it would be logical that techs on earlyer collumns have a greater chance of being found then on later collumns.

[Ben Kenobi]

Keep poppin' those huts.

Go for the poor man's invention.

[Hydey]

1. find a hut
2. pop a hut
3. search for another hut
4. repeat steps 1-3