The Infotrader/Infiltrator Network - Diplomacy plug-in (III)

[Hercules]

Let's see what the next turn brings.

[Mart]

Hercules, I can see you seriously think of continuing the game. We might go this way. It is fun to play it and it has been very much for over a year now.
Then if you wish, take over from the next turn. there are always arguments for staying in the game.

For the playing there are following arguments:
- Spartans will have only 1 turn "window" to probe us for PSA. Year 2189. With removing coastal bases we additionally made it so difficult for them to attempt it. There is great chance they will not be able to do it. After we have HSA, they would need to get this particular base.

- Our forces can further attack Spartans and make more problems for them. They will not be able to fight that efficiently on other battlegrounds.

Against further playing:
- Morganities and Gaians could not be given PSA at the same time, at least to the moment when Spartans would research this.
- Our existing now bases would be after getting conquered by Spartans a good gain for them. they could make colony pods from oposing citizens, establish their own bases. Use our teraformed tiles. Something they did and probably doing to PK.
- If we get HSA, Spartans would probably attempt to conuer it. It would be probably better if noone gets HSA, than Spartans having it.

[Hercules]

Thanks Mart , You sum it up well.

I am thinking about it. Mayhem also means fighting back.
We should all look at next turn.

Spartans want to win. (we wanted to win). Can we suggest to the Spartans anything that will stop them attacking us.

The answer is yes. We can promise them damage. They may go on to beat us but they will lose the game.

Is this a creditable threat ? Yes it is , I think.

Our message is stop attacking us , declare peace.

[Hercules]

As we were the mediators with Morgan , let some other faction take the peace role , ....maybe.

[Hercules]

Suggest to them they only want retaliation on us not anniliation.

Indicate we will look at suggestions?

[Kataphraktoi]

they did say they just wanted to infil us in that thread,or 1 of them did iirc

sparta already has the PSA in 2189,im positive. ill eat someones hat(dont have one) if they dont rush HSA

i admire the tenacity to hang on,but i wonder how we could possibly dream of any victory confition.

the S can likely be presuaded to stop attacking with your given arguments...what would be our plan,spam CPs and mass make crawlers w\ forests?

want to see what cards we have when the turn comes up

[Mart]

I would give 20% chance, that Spartans have PSA in 2189. They have like more technologies than we have, so the cost of their research may be like 2000. What kind of research rate? 200 labs/turn? 250?
2000/250 = 8. And they already were researching something for some time, so maybe 2-3 turns? We are left with around 5 turns. That this is 2189 is like 20%.

Having 250 labs/turn is somewhat difficult, Spartans probably do not have many specialists and since they were investing into military, not that excellent infrastructure. Plus they have a lot of captured base resistance in those conquered from Lal recently, so 250 is my guess, but I would not be surprised if they have in fact less than that. Gaians have now 229 or smth. But they have a lot of Librarian specialists.

[Mart]

And we may have rough estimate of Spartan military strength. If you open 2175, you will see in Who's who, that Santiago is the strongest in military. If I remember later hive took over there, but based on this we can draw some clues. These are hive (weaker than Spartans):

Air units
10 -- 6-1-10, missile needlejet

naval vessels
3 -- foil 3r armor transports
1 -- (6)-3-4 foil

land units
34 -- synth units 1-2-1
11 -- plasma 1-3-1
1 -- combat 2-2-1
3 -- combat 4-2-1
7 -- combat 6-3r-1
1 -- impact rover 4-1-2
6 -- missile rovers 6-1-2
5 -- rover artillery, (4)(5)(6)

And it was like 13 turns ago. Spartan by now probably have more. Take a look on our military after they destroyed MP garrison troops. I think we are easy prey now.

[Mart]

And hive in 2188. Spartans would be probably somewhere behind a bit:

Air units
9 -- 6 to 8 -1-10, missile needlejet

naval vessels
1 -- foil 3r armor transports
2 -- (6)-3-4 foil

land units
15 -- synth units 1-2-1
17 -- plasma 1-3-1 and 3r
2 -- combat 4 to 5 -2-1
8 -- marines, 6 to 8 -3r-1
1 -- missile rovers 6-1-2
11 -- chaos rovers, 8-1-2
5 -- chaos infantry 8-3r-1
3 -- rover artillery, (6)(8)

--------
For comparison, what we have after the attack:
Air units
2 -- B-6
4 -- F-6
2 -- copters 4,6

naval vessels
none

land units
1 -- 1-3-2
1 -- combat 6-1-1

I skipped police, as in hive i did not take scouts into account. we might count on returning our 1-3-1 drop from Gaians, but what is it?
And now, Spartans after taking over this many bases from Zakharov and Lal, just have bigger potential to reinforce faster.

[Mart]

Originally posted by Hercules
As we were the mediators with Morgan , let some other faction take the peace role , ....maybe.

Through many turns of this game I noticed that Spartans roleplay quite good their philosophy, they will not behave diplomatically if they choose to do so when being stronger. After some time, in a moment we would think we have more time we would be hit again by spartan forces, they way it was in 2188, when we thought we might buy 5-10 turns.

Kahlua Probing was in their plans to take over - it was in the drop range. After they stole MMI, they could bring several fighters, possibly F8 (chaos gun) and after breaking our F-6 defences, bomb bases, drop take over them.
----
Snoddasmannen could be misleading here, but I think it is in fact close to truth. :

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=4018608#post4018608

[GeoModder]

You noticed that too eh? They must have been busy storing ec's for this invasion. Upgrading a rover to a Chaos gun, rushing drop pod equipped troops...

[Mart]

Now we have, what they possibly are trying to figure out:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=4019925#post4019925

[GeoModder]

Wonder if they would risk advancing their rovers to us. They are damaged after all. OTOH, they might try to restore their health on a monolith within range and park a plane above it.

[Mart]

Apart from that one damaged more than 50%. It has only 1 move point now.

And with 3 rovers they had only 5 attacks, since apparently the first one got more than 50% damage in the first attack.
-------
And so far we haven't seen their tacticals. I wonder how many they have.

[GeoModder]

There weren't any in the bases we scouted 2 turns ago. So if they have them in the area, they could have moved them in Fort Sol in their last turn. Which means that with us obliterating bases and them unable to conquer a base within tactical airrange we won't see them for at least 2 turns more.

I wonder, they used 2 probes that we are sure of. They have stolen 1 tech for sure, but could instead of settling for infiltration have chosen to steal another one.