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A study of Hut Outcomes

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  • I play most of the other settings also.
    It's just that I do it infrequent enough to remind me why I don't play them more often.

    RAH
    It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
    RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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    • Geeeeeeee.......

      The denominator of 93 is a little odd. I would guess that gaps were divided by 100. By wrapping at 100 Alphabet obviously will get a larger chance than wrapping at 93.

      To put this theory in use. If one player finds a hut, he puts down a city near it then give a unit to another player, who tips the hut, then it will be either a NONE unit, a scroll, or gold.

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      • Originally posted by Xin Yu

        To put this theory in use. If one player finds a hut, he puts down a city near it then give a unit to another player, who tips the hut, then it will be either a NONE unit, a scroll, or gold.
        Xin's back.

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        • Originally posted by DrSpike


          Xin's back.
          Yes, after finding out that Civ3 now sells for less than 20 dollars.

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          • Good to have you with us again, Xin.
            Can we interest you in Succession Games?

            SG[1]
            "Our words are backed by empty wine bottles! - SG(2)
            "One of our Scouse Gits is missing." - -Jrabbit

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            • SG[1], I need to pick up the civmanager project and make it a lot better, like, can set up a route for moving troops automatically. It probably will take a while.

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              • Originally posted by Xin Yu
                It probably will take a while.
                Hello, Xin!

                Can I interest you in FW scenarios after that?
                Aux bords mystérieux du monde occidental

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                • *Bumped* for us folks in Demogame #3, looking for Monarchy out of a hut.
                  "I'm a guy - I take everything seriously except other people's emotions"

                  "Never play cards with any man named 'Doc'. Never eat at any place called 'Mom's'. And never, ever...sleep with anyone whose troubles are worse than your own." - Nelson Algren
                  "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic." - Joseph Stalin (attr.)

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                  • We can easily reconcile the numbers from the studies of both Solo and Samson, and incorporate Xin Yu's observation about the denominator of 93 being odd, whereas 100 makes more sense. To quote Xin, “The denominator of 93 is a little odd. I would guess that gaps were divided by 100. By wrapping at 100 Alphabet obviously will get a larger chance than wrapping at 93.”

                    When I examine my rules.txt file, I notice that in addition to the 90 game techs and 3 User Defined Techs, 7 Extra Advances are also listed; bringing us to a sum total of 100. I think, if I understand Scouse Gits' programming comments properly (with my own inferences), the civ2 program should read the entire contents of @civilize from Advanced Flight all the way down to Extra Advance 7.

                    When Samson calculated his 7/93 for Alphabet, he obviously skipped the 7 Extra Advances. The ratio should have been 14:100 (I actually count 15:100). Using Samson’s original numbers and correlating them to Solo’s test percentages we find this:

                    Tech Samson Solo
                    Ceremonial Burial 1 1%
                    Alphabet 7 16%
                    Bronze Working 7 7%
                    Masonry 11 10%
                    Pottery 18 18%
                    Warrior Code 22 22%
                    Horseback Riding 27 26%

                    That everything correlates exactly except for Alphabet (As Solo pointed out).
                    Yet, if we adjust Samson’s ratios to include the 7 Extra Advances we find this:

                    Tech Samson Solo
                    Ceremonial Burial 1 1%
                    Bronze Working 7 7%
                    Masonry 11 10%
                    Alphabet 15 16%
                    Pottery 18 18%
                    Warrior Code 22 22%
                    Horseback Riding 27 26%

                    An exact correlation: as each item in Samson’s list increase, so do Solo’s percentages increase in his list.

                    The conclusion, Samson’s work is verified, reconciled with Solo's data compilation, and his ratio's are adjusted to their correct limits.
                    No greater love has one than to lay down their life for a friend.

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                    • Nice work.

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                      • You guys are amazing.

                        well done
                        The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits

                        Hydey the no-limits man.

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                        • Sirsnuggles,

                          This sounds just right to me, since my percentages were based upon a larger sample than Samson's. Your explanation confirms his theory and the results of both tests. Nice work!

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                          • Originally posted by sirsnuggles

                            When Samson calculated his 7/93 for Alphabet, he obviously skipped the 7 Extra Advances.
                            Not quite.

                            I tested hut outcomes under version 2.4.2 which does not include the 7 Extra Advances. 93 is the correct denominator for that version.

                            The 7 Extra Advances exist in the MGE version which, presumably, is what Solo used for his testing since his numbers correspond to a denominator of 100.

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                            • The Extra advances are included in FW, and I think CIC. I can't remember about 2.42, though, and I can't find the original cd. I remember them being there a long time ago. Perhaps you were using the updated FW version (with a patch or something).
                              No greater love has one than to lay down their life for a friend.

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                              • 2.42 is a patch, to the original Civ2 version. The original CD does not include the 7 extra advances, nor does CIC (version 2.62).

                                The point, good sir snuggles, is that the denominator is determined by the number of techs defined under @CIVILIZE. I should have checked to see if these differed by version when Solo and I first noticed our discrepancy.

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