Military Model III

[Krenske]

Part 1 - The scouting model has now been posted to - http://www.usq.edu.au/users/krenske/...v/scouting.htm

The formula used at present are generally land-combat oriented. The hope is that this can be used for demo 5, and as it is unlikely there will be much besides land combat in it, this should not be a drawback.

Harli would like to know which formula should be used for the total scout strength. I would like to put forward a preference for the square root formula based on its simplicity.

I am content to update the page with changes that are suggested and I can keep a history of old pages.

[Mark_Everson]

Krenske:

I read the model on the web page. I think I understand it, and it looks good, but it could really use a few examples. Especially an ancient battle would be valuable, because that is what we were going to start out with. Perhaps you could pick an interesting one like Cannae or Gaugamela and follow it through all the phases. It might also help pick some of the actual numbers to use. I think your square root approach is reasonable. I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point, since such things are very easy to change at a later date.

[Krenske]

Mark,
The problem with showing definite examples of scouting in ancient battels is that for the most part the historical record only looks at the climactic battle itself. Generally the lead up to a battle is historically ignored.

The scout phase involves those troops that range ahead of the main force, normally only a small fraction of the entire force. If a force is outcouted the army could be forced to fight at a disadvantage. Quite often in ancient and medieval periods this lead to one side or the other withdrawing during what we call the maneuvering/deployment phases.

There are though some battles where documentation regarding the maneuvering and the scouting does exist, generally it is only recorded when it goes horribly wrong for one side. These reports then tend to be of battles where one side is well advantaged. I will describe some below.

- Ramases vs the hittites. Although the egyptians were advancing with a number of light scouting forces ahead of its main force they were deceived by the hittite scouts. The hittite scouts not only deceived the opposition but also allowed their forces to fully deploy before the opposition had found them. The result almost resulted in the destruction of the egyptians. Only great leadership saved the day.

- Battle of Agincourt - The english army of small size did have a number of small scouting cavalry groups and some information from the people. The french army relied mainly on the reports from the countryside. this allowed the english to consistantly withdraw ahead of the french until they ran so short on supplies they had to fight. The english used there scouting supperiority to choose terrain to their liking. During deployment they were also able to deploy their much smaller force faster than the opposition. The result was a battle where the british were in favourable terrain and were presented with the enemy in piecemeal fashion.

-Various mongol battles. Throughout their expansion the mongols were served by large numbers of light cavalry scouts. This allowed then almost always to outscout there opposition who at the time relied mainly on reports from the local populace or on reports from other forces already engaged. This scouting ability gave their forces advantages in combat on a regular basis. Their fluid non territorial strategic style also allowed them to refuse combat when they had no advantage. (There are several reports of encounters where the mongols and opposition were arranged ready for battle, and the mongols outnumbered their enemies, but the mongols still withdrew because they did not have any major advantage. They then fought a new battle weeks later after breaking away and managing to gain an advantage. Some of these withdrawals and continued attempts to gain advantage covered 250 Km or more.) So most reports of mongol battles are generally reports of battles on favourable terrain or partial ambushes or evasion. It was only when they ran into mamluke cavalry armies where they could not withdraw at will, that the mongols suffered heavy defeats.

There were many battles where the scouting had no major effect, as such it was never reported or recorded. In the system put forward a similar effect will be seen, most of the time there will be no big effect from the scouting, but occasionally there will be.

[Mark_Everson]

Ok, how about just making up a few specific examples and running them through the system from start to finish? When the whole system is mapped out. Maybe start with one extreme scouting result, and a boring one...

[Krenske]

At present we only have the scouting section up, so I will limit my example to that section.

Once 2 task forces meet we start a battle. The battle starts with a number of scouting phases that simulate the two sides trying to find each other and to determine their intentions etc. Both sides continue attempting to scout the opposition until they succeed at which point they begin to deploy vs the opposition. It is probable that one side will find the other first and therefore begin deploying first.

We determine if a force has scouted the oposition through a simple % based test. If the test is passed the side begins to deploy, If the test is very successful (<50% of target) then the side also gains a scouting advantage. If extremely successful (<10% of target) the side gains a major advantage.

We determine the target number using the following formula :- target number = total scout strength * generalship

Total scout strength = sqrt (Sum of element scout strengths + external scouting factors + #of elements + (# opposition elements / 2))

Element Scout strength = ((Exp + Tech feature + Comm tech) x (Mob - fortification benefit - terrain mod)) + hits

Example 1 - Mongol Horde -
6 x 7000 man units with 12 scouting elements and 84 elements in total vs a infantry army with 16 x 5000 man units with 160 elements.

The scouting elements are skilled and veteran they have no special technological equipment but they do use some special communication techniques that give them a +1 improvement. They also have Mob = 12 there are no fortifications but the terrain includes some marshes and hills giving a -2 mobility modifier, the elements have 500 men. The element scouting strength = ((7 + 0 + 1) x (12 - 0 - 2)) + 5 = 85

So the total scout strength is sqrt(85 x 12 + 84 + (160 / 2)) = 34

Assuming the general commanding is average (highly doubtful for mongols) 34 will be the target number. An advantage will be gained if the test beats 17 and a major advantage if the test beats 3.

Once the TF passes its scout test it then begins deploying and maneuvering for combat.

Tomorrow I will try to explain the whole system as best I can and the interplays between phases, unless Harli manages to before I can get to it.
[This message has been edited by Krenske (edited February 17, 2000).]

[Mark_Everson]

Krenske:

Looks good so far. The actual numbers and description help me out a lot in figuring out what's going on. One potential flaw in the system IMO... Small unit conflicts are IMO more likely to lead to surprises, but with your formula, the chances of big surprises are Very small. Any thoughts?

[Krenske]

Small Unit conflicts (only one unit ~ 5000men) are more likely to begin while one side is not yet fully deployed. In this situation it is only when the outmaneuvered side is unwilling to withdraw that a fight will actually occur. As the armies grow in size there will be a general increase in the number of deployed units so surprises are reduced.

One thing I am recomending is to move both the land ownership and any spy factors used as external scouting factors outside of the SQRT part of the formula for total scout strength. This will increase the ability of small home armies to deploy for combat vs invaders on their own soil. (I think I meant this all along but I just rammed it into the formula as is.) This should lead to more advantages for defending forces etc.

Some point later today I will describe the whole system.

[Krenske]

Basic description of a battle.

My running example will be a napoleonic era force of 6 infantry, 2 cavalry and 3 artillery units for the french and 9 infantry, 1 cav and 2 artillery for the austrians.

Phase 1. Both sides cycle through the scouting phase until they pass their test.
Phase 2. Maneuvering. Once a side has passed its scouting test it begins to maneuver and deploy its troops vs the opposition. This is done as a further set of phases with leadership and command tests. In any one of these phases the battle could actually start. Units that are not yet deployed ready for combat have some negative modifiers apply to them. There is also the chance of light unit actions occurring between skirmishing forces.
Phase 3 Combat. Once a side is fully deployed and positioned for combat it can begin the combat. Alternatively the combat may begin earlier because of unintended clashes during maneuvering. At this point the front line units are matched vs opposition units on a 1-1 basis, if there are additional ones left over they will stack up until 2-1 is reached. If greater than 2-1 stacking occurs the outnumbered side must deploy reserve or support units to the front line. (This stacking reflects the ability of mass forces to overrun, infiltrate and flank the enemy. The stacking will be effected by the unit dispersion rating, some units will just have a larger frontage due to size and tactical doctrine.) Once the units are all matched, a round of combat is resolved. After the combat resolution various morale tests are made and some units may retreat from the front line. The combat phase repeats until one side withdraws voluntarily or involuntarily.
Phase 4. Withdrawal. A side may choose to withdraw after any maneuver or combat phase. The withdrawing forces units in reserve immeadiately retreat. The units in support make a mobility test to see if they manage to break from combat. The units in the front line make a opposed mobility test to break from combat. The opposition becomes the pursuer, the pursuer makes opposed mobility tests to remain in contact. Only organised units with firm morale may pursuit.

Now for a example. (I will not actually list every number and factor I will only give a overview.) The 2 armies begin scouting against each other. The square being a austrian possesion gives a enough benefit that the austrians out scout the french and begin deploying for battle (The austrians did gain a advantage - the terrain will skew towards their preference - close terrain, for the infantry). The french take 2 more scouting cycles to properly scout the austrian forces. In the mean time the austrians have managed to maneuver 3 units against the french. Both sides are now deploying units. In the 1st and 2nd french maneuvering phase a skirmishing action is fought between french light cavalry and some austrian cavalry. By the end of the austrians 7th maneuver phase they have managed to deploy all but 1 infantry unit, the french have deployed all but 1 artillery unit. At this point one of the tests forces the combat to start for real.
The 1st combat round is fairly inconclusive with some casualties to both sides. After the combat resolution both sides test to deploy their last unit. The french succeed, the austrians fail. A second combat round is fought and a number of austrian infantry units morale fails. The austrians stubbornly decide to remain and their last infantry shows up. The third combat round ends with more than half of the austrian units retiring and 2 french infantry retiring. The austrians decide to withdraw (The total losses are now more than the AI can sustain according to some arcane formula.). The 2 french cavalry who have been in reserve pursuit, along with 2 infantry units still with high morale. The austrians manage to seperate all their units except for 2 infantry and the artillery. A pursuit combat round is fought between just the 7 units, during which the 2 french infantry lose enough morale to no longer pursuit. The austrians also suffer a large number of losses and the artillery is captured. In the next withdrawal phase the 2 austrian infantry succeed in seperating from combat, and the battle concludes.

The timescales for the different phases is not set in concrete. They do lend themselves to being 1 day equivalents for the scouting and maneuvering and 1/3rd days for the combat. If we can set a definite scale then we could actually determine the length of time taken for the battle in its total, including the scouting and maneuvering. The Tf's would then have used up however many strategic movement "ticks" the battle time equates too.

Remember this is only a wordy overview the maneuver, combat and withdrawal models are still to be fully detailed. Hopefully soon.
[This message has been edited by Krenske (edited February 17, 2000).]

[Krenske]

Hi all. The 2nd part is up.

More specifically the manouvre section is up
http://www.usq.edu.au/users/krenske/...v/scouting.htm http://www.usq.edu.au/users/krenske/...v/maneuvre.htm http://www.usq.edu.au/users/krenske/game/civ/unit.htm

I will also try to have my long delayed naval model in place soon. (My problems at the moment is low combat endurance weapons being mixed with high combat endurance weapons. Namely missiles and guns. The other problem is potential weapon on weapon effects.) I will probably put it in a new thread as this one is more like a land combat model.

[Harlikwin]

In response to the rebuild idea, historically speaking it is easier to rebuild a division rather than just make one up from scratch. The part of the divsion left is often the REFM bit who do the clerical work which is vital to rebuilding the divsion and since they are in place and already know how the systrem works it is easier to rebuild it... WE could change it to make it cost more though, as appropriate..

-Harli

[Mark_Everson]

Hi Krenske:

Looks good so far! I just have one minor comment. Under Unit Comms Rating (Maneuvre 3.) you say "in these situations the Comms rating is doubled". This is a severe, nonlinear turn-on of an effect, and I think we need to avoid these. They lead to micromanagement and big result changes for very small input changes. So FE when a unit's dispersal goes from 9 to 10 is communications really changed by a factor of two! It should be a more gradual effect or players will learn special time-wasting tricks to exploit this big difference IMO.

The same type of thing is found in the unit model under "Rebuild supply" If an element is one tiny bit short of being destroyed there is a much cheaper price to rebuild than if that last tiny bit were also destroyed.

Other than this quibble it looks good

[Krenske]

Mark,
I agree on the Jump in effectiveness of comms. It should indeed be gradual can I suggest a comms bonus of N being reduced by dispersion D. According to a formula like N - D.

I will update the page with a change to that area soon.


As to having a lower rebuild cost. I agree with Harli, A unit or combat element is able to rebuild cheaper, training and experience wise, if there is a cadre left to build onto. It is certainly cheaper than starting from scratch. There is a real incentive in pulling units out of combat if it is cheaper to do than rebuying from scratch. This is historical and it should be able to be handled within the TF structure. Damaged units can be pulled back to reserve, where they are repaired and resupplied and then sent back to the front line. Hopefully the micro management can be handled by TF AI.

[Mark_Everson]

On unit rebuild... I Agree with you guys it should be cheaper. The thing I objected to is the big jump in cost implied by your formula between a "destroyed" unit and a unit that is infinitesimally close to being destroyed, but hasn't been destroyed yet. All I'm saying is that we need some sort of functions to handle these situations so that we avoid game models that have big arbitrary jumps in them someplace. So something that would keep me happy is that if a unit gets to below 20% strength or some very low number, then you would start to get into a regime where it was becoming close to as expensive as the cost for a new one...

[alms66]

The problem I see with making a unit cheaper to rebuild vs. just building a new unit is this: Yes it is appropriate to just rebuild a unit for much less money. But we must remember that a "unit" is 5,000 men and the only realistic percentage that we can rebuild on (just considering 1 unit) is something like 2-5%. Now that's just one unit. Considering the fact that Clash armies will be multiple units, the percentage should probably be less than 1% most of the time, except for those rare cases where you only have 1 unit in the army.

[Krenske]

Toubabo_Koomi

The rebuilding cost is only at the element level in the unit model. An element is a small ~500 man combat element. It is envisaged that the rate and handling of element rebuilding be a completely automated system.

Assume that a infantry division has just been smacked about pretty badly and it has completely lost 5 infantry elements and has another down to half strength. Now while the unit remains in the front line only the damaged element can be repaired. So at most this will only ever top up the 1 damaged element of each type in the unit. If the Ai chooses to move the element to reserve then it can rebuild 1 element per period of time (approx 3 days). If the TF is not engaged in combat and the unit is in reserve it could rebuild 2 elements per period. I would like to assume that there will be some sort of pool of military replacements that can be used for these rebuilds along with a supply pool.

If a Unit is ever completely destroyed a proportion of the units manpower is assumed to join the replacement pool and the unit must be repurchased from scratch. The main point of the rebuild stats and the standing values is to properly simulate the cycling of units in combat. It will also tend to average the damage across a task force so that whole units will not be wiped out until a large psrt of the TF is reduced.

Hopefully the system will be more understandable after the Assault/battle and recovery phases sections are available.