Jaguar's League (D/ST) Fantasy Football Draft Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

I'm not understanding why he discounts the projection as a result of a risk assessment. Risk should be implicit in the projection. What cause does he have to expect additional risk exposure not represented in previous years of Rivers' career (like last year)? Rivers is not a 31 year old runningback.

[MRT144]

I'm not understanding why he discounts the projection as a result of a risk assessment. Risk should be implicit in the projection.

That's just not how his team does things. And you're obviously convinced that Rivers has no downside possibility, nay, you think he's a 31 year old QB on the rise with 3rd rate WRs.

[Al B. Sure!]

That's just not how his team does things. And you're obviously convinced that Rivers has no downside possibility, nay, you think he's a 31 year old QB on the rise with 3rd rate WRs.

The entirety of his career demonstrates no downside. We saw his downside last year and he was still a top-10 QB. I think his WR's have been just as terrible his entire career. I won my money league with Rivers as my QB in 2010 when he was passing to Legedu Naanee and Seyi Ajirotutu for much of the season. That's no better than what he has now.

Disappointed that Schatz would just add an exogenous variable on projections (what the **** is the significance of 10%? Did he pull that out his ass?) because of his 'gut' feeling or whatever it is.

[MRT144]

[MRT144]

Also, being disappointed in Schatz for gut feelings is ridiculous given how other people do their rankings. They looked at age, health, players around, etc etc to see what the downside risk is. You have to factor that antonio gates being the best reciever on the team and being injury prone has ramifications on potential. Would you have preferred everything presented as a range? That'd sure make it more easy to understand

[Al B. Sure!]

Also, being disappointed in Schatz for gut feelings is ridiculous given how other people do their rankings. They looked at age, health, players around, etc etc to see what the downside risk is. You have to factor that antonio gates being the best reciever on the team and being injury prone has ramifications on potential. Would you have preferred everything presented as a range? That'd sure make it more easy to understand

Yes, actually. In fact, I would expect the projection to be the weighted average of all points along that range. Would make a lot more sense than arbitrarily deducting 10% (where does he even get 10% from?) off a projection. Why is he adding an exogenous variable to his projection and applying it selectively?

I'd much rather have a gut feeling that's admittedly based on intuition than a gut feeling masquerading as the result of a statistical model.

[flash9286]

What is the significance of the table, MRT (compared to the one you posted earlier)?

[MRT144]

Yes, actually. In fact, I would expect the projection to be the weighted average of all points along that range. Would make a lot more sense than arbitrarily deducting 10% (where does he even get 10% from?) off a projection. Why is he adding an exogenous variable to his projection and applying it selectively?

I'd much rather have a gut feeling that's admittedly based on intuition than a gut feeling masquerading as the result of a statistical model.

He had 4 risk categories, Green, Yellow, Red, Blue at 0% -5% -10% +5%

In running the numbers models he probably did a thousand simulations and had a wider variance on some of them than others. The more scattered the outcomes, the higher the downside risk. -10% was arbitrarily picked as the most risky downside but so what? The only reason this matters to you is because you have ego issues. This is projections from one source, and getting really butthurt about this as you are just looks bad.

TLDR: stop being a pedant ***** that nobody cares about or listens to.

[MRT144]

What is the significance of the table, MRT (compared to the one you posted earlier)?

The 2nd one is without risk projection involved.

[SlowwHand]

So based on the 2nd analysis, koy is your prediction to win, if all stays as is current?
Not only going to merely win, he's going to crush the living **** out of us and put our grandchildren into bondage, out working his royal lands?

[MRT144]

So based on the 2nd analysis, koy is your prediction to win, if all stays as is current?
Not only going to merely win, he's going to crush the living **** out of us and put our grandchildren into bondage, out working his royal lands?

That's the projection. I did some small tweaks that mock bye weeks and I only selected 3rd RB or 3rd WRs as flex, and this assumes that he would be playing with the highest projected season players, but those didnt change much.

For instance, with my team, I plan on playing Torrey Smith at Flex week 4, 10, 11.
Daniel Thomas Week 8, Law Firm Week 9
Andy Dalton Weeks 2-6, 12-15
Josh Freeman Weeks 7-11, 16
Buffalo Defense Weeks, 1, 3, 7,11-16
Cincy Defense Weeks 2,4-6,
San Diego 8-10

There's no real way to put this into the projections accurately.

[joncha]

Rosters are complete, free agents are available. Game on.

Thanks, Jaguar.

I'm pretty sure I had a few more QBs on my list than that, though...

[Koyaanisqatsi]

So based on the 2nd analysis, koy is your prediction to win, if all stays as is current?
Not only going to merely win, he's going to crush the living **** out of us and put our grandchildren into bondage, out working his royal lands?

Ooh, I like this game.

Of course, risk is a fairly big weakness for my team. I only have one reliable RB (depending on how you see Carolina's backfield), the upside of my QB position is a mid-level QB1, my TE looks good but needs to prove he's not a JAG and the Jets look more and more like they're going to be a carnival sideshow again this year. But yeah, they have potential.

[Jaguar]

Thanks, Jaguar.

I'm pretty sure I had a few more QBs on my list than that, though...

That backup-QB-run in round 9 caught wind before you could get one.

[SlowwHand]

Someone will claim Ryan Tannehill before it's all said and done.