Jaguar's League (D/ST) Fantasy Football Draft Thread

[MRT144]

As I feared my team is solid but I need guys to overperform to be much better than a .500 team.




What?

I tried putting in the table from what I created in excel but it keeps adding half a page of space into it.

[MRT144]

Also, Jag only needs a starting kicker so that will obviously be added, but the starters are solid.

[MRT144]

Wait I picked Rivers as the 10th QB but KUBIAK says he's really the 12th? Who's better than Rivers? Peyton and Roethlisberger? That just seems weird.

Wait... no ****ing way is Andy Dalton higher than Rivers... that makes no sense.

They predict more sacks, less rushing yards and rushing TDs for rivers plus a greater chance of injury for him. Also, he doesn't have as good as receivers as he did in previous years.

[SlowwHand]

Wait I picked Rivers as the 10th QB but KUBIAK says he's really the 12th? Who's better than Rivers? Peyton and Roethlisberger? That just seems weird.

Wait... no ****ing way is Andy Dalton higher than Rivers... that makes no sense.

It does when you consider Dalton is on his way up and Rivers is on his way down. Dalton had a decent first year.

[Al B. Sure!]

They predict more sacks, less rushing yards and TDs for rivers plus a greater chance of injury for him.

I just can't fathom how Schatz thinks Dalton will be better than Philip Rivers. Wut?

You will find NO ONE else ranking Dalton above Rivers.

[MRT144]

I just can't fathom how Schatz thinks Dalton will be better than Philip Rivers. Wut?

Rivers: Rivers’ average completion was just as far downfield in 2011 as it was the previous couple seasons, but the YAC on his throws went from top-five to league-average. That was partly of a function of a passing game that too often looked like a doughnut, with Rivers throwing deep passes or dumpoffs to the backs and nothing in the middle. The only receiver who consistently showed separation on intermediate to deep routes was Antonio Gates. The higher interception rate was primarily a result of Rivers trying to force more passes downfield, given the lack of better short options. His decision making also seemed to be affected by pressure more than it had been in past years, when he’d been almost completely unflappable. The offensive line should be more consistent than it was in 2011, which would help, but Rivers probably needs either Robert Meachem or Vincent Brown to emerge as a consistent threat to regain the form he had from 2008-2010.

Dalton: Dalton’s efficiency numbers were better than Cam Newton’s, but we project that to change going forward as the team around Newton gets better. One area Dalton clearly needs to improve is his accuracy. The Bengals’ poor YAC numbers, in an offense designed around hitting receivers on the run, can be attributed (at least in part) to Dalton’s lack of pinpoint control. Too often, even passes that were caught forced the receiver to break stride or go to ground, limiting potential yardage. Dalton’s poise is usually given as the first or second item on his list of attributes, and his numbers in money situations bear that out. Only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees had a higher DVOA than Dalton’s 38.9% on third and fourth down, and only Rodgers, Brees, Tom Brady, and Tony Romo did better than Dalton’s 28.0% DVOA in the red zone. Regression towards the mean, of course, says not to expect splits like that on a regular basis unless Dalton’s overall performance improves. The Bengals were exceptionally conservative in 2011, and while some of the shackles on Dalton figure to be removed, the receiving corps is extremely young, and the running back situation remains fluid. Dalton’s growth, or lack of it, will define the Bengals’ season.

[MRT144]

But look at this another way, from a pure numbers perspective, how much better do you think Rivers is than Dalton? I'd be willing to bet that the Top 3 are that much better than Rivers than Rivers is than Dalton, both in % and pure points.

Our scoring systems also makes fumbles much more brutal so combine that with sacks and Rivers inability to run, he's much more likely to have have points lost off of his obviously better passing numbers.

[Al B. Sure!]

But look at this another way, from a pure numbers perspective, how much better do you think Rivers is than Dalton? I'd be willing to bet that the Top 3 are that much better than Rivers than Rivers is than Dalton, both in % and pure points.

Our scoring systems also makes fumbles much more brutal so combine that with sacks and Rivers inability to run, he's much more likely to have have points lost off of his obviously better passing numbers.

In our league, last year:

Rivers (and his 20 INTs, 30 sacks, and 5 fumbles): 445.50
Dalton: 358.40

Rivers will only rebound from last year's aberration.

I am so confident that Rivers will outperform Dalton in fantasy this year. Rivers the #12 QB

[Jaguar]

01.01 Jaguar - Drew Brees - QB - NO
01.02 snoopy369 - Aaron Rodgers - QB - GB
01.03 MRT144 - Ray Rice - RB - BAL
01.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Arian Foster - RB - HOU
01.05 Jonny - Calvin Johnson - WR - DET
01.06 Berz - Tom Brady - QB - NE
01.07 OzzyKP - Matthew Stafford - QB - DET
01.08 Spaced Cowboy - Cam Newton - QB - CAR
01.09 flash9286 - LeSean McCoy - RB - PHI
01.10 joncha - Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - JAC
01.11 Al B. Sure - Darren McFadden - RB - OAK
01.12 SlowwHand - Ryan Matthews - RB - SD


02.01 SlowwHand - Chris Johnson - RB - TEN
02.02 Al B. Sure - Matt Forte - RB - CHI
02.03 joncha - Eli Manning - QB - NYG
02.04 flash9286 - Larry Fitzgerald - WR - ARI
02.05 Spaced Cowboy - DeMarco Murray - RB - DAL
02.06 OzzyKP - Rob Gronkowski - TE - NE
02.07 Berz - Jimmy Graham - TE - NO
02.08 Jonny - Steven Jackson - RB - STL
02.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Wes Welker - WR - NE
02.10 MRT - Greg Jennings - WR - GB
02.11 snoopy369 - Roddy White - WR - ATL
02.12 Jaguar - Adrian Peterson - RB - MIN


03.01 Jaguar - Trent Richardson - RB - CLE
03.02 snoopy369 - Jamaal Charles - RB -KC
03.03 MRT144 - Victor Cruz - WR - NYG
03.04 Koyaanisqatsi - AJ Green - WR - CIN
03.05 Jonny - Tony Romo - QB - DAL
03.06 Berz - Darren Sproles - RB - NO
03.07 OzzyKP - Marshawn Lynch - RB - SEA
03.08 Spaced Cowboy - Julio Jones - WR -ATL
03.09 flash9286 - Michael Vick - QB - PHI
03.10 joncha - Matt Ryan - QB - ATL
03.11 Al B. Sure - Philip Rivers - QB - SD
03.12 SlowwHand - Andre Johnson - WR - HOU


04.01 SlowwHand - Hakeem Nicks - WR - NYG
04.02 Al B. Sure - Brandon Marshall - WR - CHI
04.03 joncha - Mike Wallace - WR - PIT
04.04 flash9286 - Fred Jackson - RB - BUF
04.05 Spaced Cowboy - Reggie Bush - RB - MIA
04.06 OzzyKP - Steve Smith - WR - CAR
04.07 Berz - Jordy Nelson - WR - GB
04.08 Jonny - Michael Turner - RB - ATL
04.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Jonathan Stewart - RB - CAR
04.10 MRT - Shonn Greene - RB - NYJ
04.11 snoopy369 - Dwayne Bowe - WR - KC
04.12 Jaguar - Doug Martin - RB - TB


05.01 Jaguar - Marques Colston - WR - NO
05.02 snoopy369 - Aaron Hernandez - TE - NE
05.03 MRT144 - Antonio Brown - WR - PIT
05.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Peyton Manning - QB - DEN
05.05 Jonny - Demaryius Thomas - WR - DEN
05.06 Berz - Willis McGahee - RB - DEN
05.07 OzzyKP - Percy Harvin - WR - MIN
05.08 Spaced Cowboy - Ahmad Bradshaw - RB - NYG
05.09 flash9286 - Dez Bryant - WR - DAL
05.10 joncha - Beanie Wells - RB - ARI
05.11 Al B. Sure - Brandon Lloyd - WR - NE
05.12 SlowwHand - Robert Lee Griffin III - QB - WAS


06.01 SlowwHand - Frank Gore - RB - SF
06.02 Al B. Sure - Jeremy Maclin - WR - PHI
06.03 joncha - Antonio Gates - TE - SD
06.04 flash9286 - Stevie Johnson - WR - BUF
06.05 Spaced Cowboy - Vincent Jackson - WR - TB
06.06 OzzyKP - Michael Bush - RB - CHI
06.07 Berz - Miles Austin - WR - DAL
06.08 Jonny - Vernon Davis - TE - SF
06.09 Koyaanisqatsi - DeSean Jackson - WR - PHI
06.10 MRT - Benjarvus Green-Ellis - RB - CIN
06.11 snoopy369 - Donald Brown - RB - IND
06.12 Jaguar - Eric Decker - WR - DEN


07.01 Jaguar - Stevan Ridley - RB - NE
07.02 snoopy369 - Pierre Thomas - RB - NO
07.03 MRT144 - Jermichael Finley - TE - GB
07.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Shane Vereen - RB - NE
07.05 Jonny - DeAngelo Williams - RB - CAR
07.06 Berz - Pierre Garcon - WR - WAS
07.07 OzzyKP - Isaac Redman - RB - PIT
07.08 Spaced Cowboy - Fred Davis - TE - WAS
07.09 flash9286 - Kenny Britt - WR - TEN
07.10 joncha - David Wilson - RB - NYG
07.11 Al B. Sure - Ben Tate - RB - HOU
07.12 SlowwHand - Robert Meachem - WR - SD


08.01 SlowwHand - Brandon Pettigrew - TE - DET
08.02 Al B. Sure - Peyton Hillis - RB - KC
08.03 joncha - Malcom Floyd - WR - SD
08.04 flash9286 - Mark Ingram - RB - NO
08.05 Spaced Cowboy - Justin Blackmon - WR - JAC
08.06 OzzyKP - Cedric Benson - RB - GB
08.07 Berz - Rashard Mendenhall - RB -PIT
08.08 Jonny - Anquan Boldin - WR - BAL
08.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Denarius Moore - WR - OAK
08.10 MRT - Torrey Smith - WR - BAL
08.11 snoopy369 - Chicago Bears - D/ST - CHI
08.12 Jaguar - Reggie Wayne - WR - IND


09.01 Jaguar - Ben Roethlisberger - QB - PIT
09.02 Snoopy369 - Matt Schaub - QB - HOU
09.03 MRT144 - Andy Dalton - QB - CIN
09.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Jets - D/ST - NYJ
09.05 Jonny - Jay Cutler - QB - CHI
09.06 Berz - 49ers - D/ST - SF
09.07 OzzyKP - Ravens - D/ST - BAL
09.08 Spaced Cowboy - Jason Witten - TE - DAL
09.09 flash9286 - Andrew Luck - QB - IND
09.10 joncha - Ryan Williams - RB - ARI
09.11 Al B. Sure - Titus Young - WR - DET
09.12 SlowwHand - C.J. Spiller - RB - BUF


10.01 SlowwHand - Lance Moore - WR - NO
10.02 Al B. Sure - Jermaine Gresham - TE - CIN
10.03 joncha - Sidney Rice - WR - SEA
10.04 flash9286 - Texans - D/ST - HOU
10.05 Spaced Cowboy - Tony Gonzalez - TE - ATL
10.06 OzzyKP - Darrius Heyward-Bey - WR - OAK
10.07 Berz - Roy Helu - RB - WAS
10.08 Jonny - Nate Washington - WR - TEN
10.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Kyle Rudolph - TE - MIN
10.10 MRT - Daniel Thomas - RB - MIA
10.11 snoopy369 - Jacquizz Rodgers - RB - ATL
10.12 Jaguar - Steelers - D/ST - PIT


11.01 Jaguar - Packers - D/ST - GB
11.02 snoopy369 - Toby Gerhart - RB - MIN
11.03 MRT144 - Josh Freeman - QB - TB
11.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Carson Palmer - QB - OAK
11.05 Jonny - Eagles - D/ST - PHI
11.06 Berz - Laurent Robinson - WR - JAX
11.07 OzzyKP - Ryan Fitzpatrick - QB - BUF
11.08 Spaced Cowboy - Giants - D/ST - NYG
11.09 flash9286 - Kevin Smith - RB - DET
11.10 joncha - Patriots - D/ST - NE
11.11 Al B. Sure - Jared Cook - TE - TEN
11.12 SlowwHand - Cowboys - D/ST - DAL


12.01 SlowwHand - Jake Locker - QB - TEN
12.02 Al B. Sure - Jacob Tamme - TE - DEN
12.03 joncha - Seahawks - D/ST - SEA
12.04 flash9286 - Mike Williams - WR - TB
12.05 Spaced Cowboy - David Akers - K - SF
12.06 OzzyKP - Lions - D/ST - DET
12.07 Berz - Rashad Jennings - RB - JAX
12.08 Jonny - Owen Daniels - TE - HOU
12.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Mikel Leshoure - RB - DET
12.10 MRT144 - Bills - D/ST - BUF
12.11 snoopy369 - Greg Little - WR - CLE
12.12 Jaguar - Doug Baldwin - WR - SEA


13.01 Jaguar - Coby Fleener - TE - IND
13.02 snoopy369 - Santonio Holmes - WR - NYJ
13.03 MRT - Bengals - D/ST - CIN
13.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Vikings - D/ST - MIN
13.05 Jonny - Randy Moss - WR - SF
13.06 Berz - Mike Tolbert - RB - CAR
13.07 OzzyKP - Brent Celek - TE - PHI
13.08 Spaced Cowboy - Sam Bradford - QB - STL
13.09 flash9286 - Brandon LaFell - WR - CAR
13.10 joncha - Joe Flacco - QB - BAL
13.11 Al B. Sure - Danny Amendola - WR- STL
13.12 SlowwHand - Michael Crabtree - WR - SF


14.01 SlowwHand - Dustin Keller - TE - NYJ
14.02 Al B. Sure - Bilal Powell - RB - NYJ
14.03 joncha - Jahvid Best - RB - DET
14.04 flash9286 - Evan Royster - RB - WAS
14.05 Spaced Cowboy - Kendall Wright - WR- TEN
14.06 OzzyKP - Nate Burleson - WR - DET
14.07 Berz - Sebastian Janikowski - K - OAK
14.08 Jonny - Mason Crosby - K - GB
14.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Stephen Gostkowski - K - NE
14.10 MRT - Jason Hanson - K - DET
14.11 snoopy369 - Robbie Gould - K - CHI
14.12 Jaguar - Alshon Jeffery - WR - CHI


15.01 Jaguar - Lance Kendricks - TE - STL
15.02 snoopy369 - Ronnie Hillman - RB - DEN
15.03 MRT - Jon Baldwin - WR - KC
15.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Bernard Scott - RB - CIN
15.05 Jonny - Titans - D/ST - TEN
15.06 Berz - Christian Ponder - QB - MIN
15.07 OzzyKP - Dan Bailey - K - DAL
15.08 Spaced Cowboy - Ronnie Brown - RB - SD
15.09 flash9286 - Dallas Clark - TE - TB
15.10 joncha - Alex Henery - K - PHI
15.11 Al B. Sure - Falcons - D/ST - ATL
15.12 SlowwHand - Rob Bironas - K - TEN

16.01 SlowwHand - Cardinals - D/ST - ARI
16.02 Al B. Sure - Matt Bryant - K - ATL
16.03 joncha - Santana Moss - WR - WAS
16.04 Flash9286 - Garrett Hartley - K - NO
16.05 Spaced Cowboy - Greg Olsen - TE - CAR
16.06 OzzyKP - LeGarrette Blount - RB - TB
16.07 Berz - Joel Dreesen - TE - DEN
16.08 Jonny - Jonathan Dwyer - RB - PIT
16.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Alex Smith - QB - SF
16.10 MRT - Marcedes Lewis - TE - JAC
16.11 snoopy369 - Heath Miller - TE - PIT
16.12 Jaguar - Matt Prater - K - DEN

Rosters are complete, free agents are available. Game on.

[MRT144]

In our league, last year:

Rivers (and his 20 INTs, 30 sacks, and 5 fumbles): 445.50
Dalton: 358.40

Rivers will only rebound from last year's aberration.

I am so confident that Rivers will outperform Dalton in fantasy this year. Rivers the #12 QB

I don't think he'll rebound.

1. His WRs are at best WR2s on any other team save Cleveland
2. His biggest target is injury prone
3. Taking sacks makes him more injury prone.

I know you don't have kubiak but they think that the risk of Rivers falling short of projected numbers is higher than Dalton, so they took 10% off his fantasy value in addition to numbers. You obviously disagree with that but lolpinions, right?

If I ran it without risk adjustment the entire picture changes, but I'm not inclined to do that.

[SlowwHand]

You are absolutely pissing into the wind if you think you'll ever get Alby to admit that maybe he's not 100% correct on everything.

[MRT144]

You are absolutely pissing into the wind if you think you'll ever get Alby to admit that maybe he's not 100% correct on everything.

Obviously.

[flash9286]

I think this situation calls for a bet.

[Al B. Sure!]

Before MRT posted Schatz' stuff, not a single one of you would have EVER ranked Dalton higher than Rivers.

Go to every fantasy site and you'll never find Dalton ranked higher than Rivers. Schatz is pissing against the wind of everyone's opinion.

[MRT144]

Before MRT posted Schatz' stuff, not a single one of you would have EVER ranked Dalton higher than Rivers.

Go to every fantasy site and you'll never find Dalton ranked higher than Rivers. Schatz is pissing against the wind of everyone's opinion.

That's what makes him an outsider. But as I said, the rankings I use included a risk adjustment. Sans that adjustment Rivers is ahead of Dalton. L2R