Jaguar's League (D/ST) Fantasy Football Draft Thread

[Jaguar]

joncha's Seattle Homer picks are usually pretty well-timed and predictable.

[Al B. Sure!]

I hate Joncha. I wanted the seahawks defense hella bad.

Me, too, but I would have waited til my second to last pick so you would've probably gotten them. The Seahawks D has some actually good personnel.

[MRT144]

01.01 Jaguar - Drew Brees - QB - NO
01.02 snoopy369 - Aaron Rodgers - QB - GB
01.03 MRT144 - Ray Rice - RB - BAL
01.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Arian Foster - RB - HOU
01.05 Jonny - Calvin Johnson - WR - DET
01.06 Berz - Tom Brady - QB - NE
01.07 OzzyKP - Matthew Stafford - QB - DET
01.08 Spaced Cowboy - Cam Newton - QB - CAR
01.09 flash9286 - LeSean McCoy - RB - PHI
01.10 joncha - Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - JAC
01.11 Al B. Sure - Darren McFadden - RB - OAK
01.12 SlowwHand - Ryan Matthews - RB - SD

02.01 SlowwHand - Chris Johnson - RB - TEN
02.02 Al B. Sure - Matt Forte - RB - CHI
02.03 joncha - Eli Manning - QB - NYG
02.04 flash9286 - Larry Fitzgerald - WR - ARI
02.05 Spaced Cowboy - DeMarco Murray - RB - DAL
02.06 OzzyKP - Rob Gronkowski - TE - NE
02.07 Berz - Jimmy Graham - TE - NO
02.08 Jonny - Steven Jackson - RB - STL
02.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Wes Welker - WR - NE
02.10 MRT - Greg Jennings - WR - GB
02.11 snoopy369 - Roddy White - WR - ATL
02.12 Jaguar - Adrian Peterson - RB - MIN

03.01 Jaguar - Trent Richardson - RB - CLE
03.02 snoopy369 - Jamaal Charles - RB -KC
03.03 MRT144 - Victor Cruz - WR - NYG
03.04 Koyaanisqatsi - AJ Green - WR - CIN
03.05 Jonny - Tony Romo - QB - DAL
03.06 Berz - Darren Sproles - RB - NO
03.07 OzzyKP - Marshawn Lynch - RB - SEA
03.08 Spaced Cowboy - Julio Jones - WR -ATL
03.09 flash9286 - Michael Vick - QB - PHI
03.10 joncha - Matt Ryan - QB - ATL
03.11 Al B. Sure - Philip Rivers - QB - SD
03.12 SlowwHand - Andre Johnson - WR - HOU

04.01 SlowwHand - Hakeem Nicks - WR - NYG
04.02 Al B. Sure - Brandon Marshall - WR - CHI
04.03 joncha - Mike Wallace - WR - PIT
04.04 flash9286 - Fred Jackson - RB - BUF
04.05 Spaced Cowboy - Reggie Bush - RB - MIA
04.06 OzzyKP - Steve Smith - WR - CAR
04.07 Berz - Jordy Nelson - WR - GB
04.08 Jonny - Michael Turner - RB - ATL
04.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Jonathan Stewart - RB - CAR
04.10 MRT - Shonn Greene - RB - NYJ
04.11 snoopy369 - Dwayne Bowe - WR - KC
04.12 Jaguar - Doug Martin - RB - TB

05.01 Jaguar - Marques Colston - WR - NO
05.02 snoopy369 - Aaron Hernandez - TE - NE
05.03 MRT144 - Antonio Brown - WR - PIT
05.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Peyton Manning - QB - DEN
05.05 Jonny - Demaryius Thomas - WR - DEN
05.06 Berz - Willis McGahee - RB - DEN
05.07 OzzyKP - Percy Harvin - WR - MIN
05.08 Spaced Cowboy - Ahmad Bradshaw - RB - NYG
05.09 flash9286 - Dez Bryant - WR - DAL
05.10 joncha - Beanie Wells - RB - ARI
05.11 Al B. Sure - Brandon Lloyd - WR - NE
05.12 SlowwHand - Robert Lee Griffin III - QB - WAS

06.01 SlowwHand - Frank Gore - RB - SF
06.02 Al B. Sure - Jeremy Maclin - WR - PHI
06.03 joncha - Antonio Gates - TE - SD
06.04 flash9286 - Stevie Johnson - WR - BUF
06.05 Spaced Cowboy - Vincent Jackson - WR - TB
06.06 OzzyKP - Michael Bush - RB - CHI
06.07 Berz - Miles Austin - WR - DAL
06.08 Jonny - Vernon Davis - TE - SF
06.09 Koyaanisqatsi - DeSean Jackson - WR - PHI
06.10 MRT - Benjarvus Green-Ellis - RB - CIN
06.11 snoopy369 - Donald Brown - RB - IND
06.12 Jaguar - Eric Decker - WR - DEN

07.01 Jaguar - Stevan Ridley - RB - NE
07.02 snoopy369 - Pierre Thomas - RB - NO
07.03 MRT144 - Jermichael Finley - TE - GB
07.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Shane Vereen - RB - NE
07.05 Jonny - DeAngelo Williams - RB - CAR
07.06 Berz - Pierre Garcon - WR - WAS
07.07 OzzyKP - Isaac Redman - RB - PIT
07.08 Spaced Cowboy - Fred Davis - TE - WAS
07.09 flash9286 - Kenny Britt - WR - TEN
07.10 joncha - David Wilson - RB - NYG
07.11 Al B. Sure - Ben Tate - RB - HOU
07.12 SlowwHand - Robert Meachem - WR - SD

08.01 SlowwHand - Brandon Pettigrew - TE - DET
08.02 Al B. Sure - Peyton Hillis - RB - KC
08.03 joncha - Malcom Floyd - WR - SD
08.04 flash9286 - Mark Ingram - RB - NO
08.05 Spaced Cowboy - Justin Blackmon - WR - JAC
08.06 OzzyKP - Cedric Benson - RB - GB
08.07 Berz - Rashard Mendenhall - RB -PIT
08.08 Jonny - Anquan Boldin - WR - BAL
08.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Denarius Moore - WR - OAK
08.10 MRT - Torrey Smith - WR - BAL
08.11 snoopy369 - Chicago Bears - D/ST - CHI
08.12 Jaguar - Reggie Wayne - WR - IND

09.01 Jaguar - Ben Roethlisberger - QB - PIT
09.02 Snoopy369 - Matt Schaub - QB - HOU
09.03 MRT144 - Andy Dalton - QB - CIN
09.04 Koyaanisqatsi - New York Jets - D/ST - NYJ
09.05 Jonny - Jay Cutler - QB - CHI
09.06 Berz - San Francisco 49ers - D/ST - SF
09.07 OzzyKP - Baltimore Ravens - D/ST - BAL
09.08 Spaced Cowboy - Jason Witten - TE - DAL
09.09 flash9286 - Andrew Luck - QB - IND
09.10 joncha - Ryan Williams - RB - ARI
09.11 Al B. Sure - Titus Young - WR - DET
09.12 SlowwHand - C.J. Spiller - RB - BUF

10.01 SlowwHand - Lance Moore - WR - NO
10.02 Al B. Sure - Jermaine Gresham - TE - CIN
10.03 joncha - Sidney Rice - WR - Seattle Trollhawks
10.04 flash9286 - Texans - D/ST - HOU
10.05 Spaced Cowboy - Tony Gonzalez - TE - ATL
10.06 OzzyKP - Darrius Heyward-Bey - WR - OAK
10.07 Berz - Roy Helu - RB - WAS
10.08 Jonny - Nate Washington - WR - TEN
10.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Kyle Rudolph - TE - MIN
10.10 MRT - Daniel Thomas - RB - MIA
10.11 snoopy369 - Jacquizz Rodgers - RB - ATL
10.12 Jaguar - Steelers - D/ST - PIT

11.01 Jaguar - Packers - D/ST - GB
11.02 snoopy369 - Toby Gerhart - RB - MIN
11.03 MRT144 - Josh Freeman - QB - TB
11.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Carson Palmer - QB - CIN
11.05 Jonny - Eagles - D/ST - PHI
11.06 Berz - Laurent Robinson - WR - JAX
11.07 OzzyKP - Ryan Fitzpatrick - QB - BUF
11.08 Spaced Cowboy - NY Giants Defense - D/ST - NYG
11.09 flash9286 - Kevin Smith - RB - DET
11.10 joncha - NE Pats Defense - D/ST - NE
11.11 Al B. Sure - Jared Cook - TE - TEN
11.12 SlowwHand - Dallas Cowboy Defense - DS/T - DAL

12.01 SlowwHand - Jake Locker - QB - TEN
12.02 Al B. Sure - Jacob Tamme - TE - DEN
12.03 joncha - Seattle Trollhawks - D/ST - Homer Pick
12.04 flash9286 - Mike Williams - WR - TB
12.05 Spaced Cowboy - David Akers - K - SF
12.06 OzzyKP
12.07 Berz
12.08 Jonny
12.09 Koyaanisqatsi
12.10 MRT144
12.11 snoopy369
12.12 Jaguar

[MRT144]

Me, too, but I would have waited til my second to last pick so you would've probably gotten them. The Seahawks D has some actually good personnel.

I wanted them not just cause they're my home team, but also because my wife got them in the auction league and it would have been fun to root for the same fantasy points.

[Al B. Sure!]

12.05 Spaced Cowboy - David Akers - K - SF

What. the. ****

[OzzyKP]

01.01 Jaguar - Drew Brees - QB - NO
01.02 snoopy369 - Aaron Rodgers - QB - GB
01.03 MRT144 - Ray Rice - RB - BAL
01.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Arian Foster - RB - HOU
01.05 Jonny - Calvin Johnson - WR - DET
01.06 Berz - Tom Brady - QB - NE
01.07 OzzyKP - Matthew Stafford - QB - DET
01.08 Spaced Cowboy - Cam Newton - QB - CAR
01.09 flash9286 - LeSean McCoy - RB - PHI
01.10 joncha - Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - JAC
01.11 Al B. Sure - Darren McFadden - RB - OAK
01.12 SlowwHand - Ryan Matthews - RB - SD

02.01 SlowwHand - Chris Johnson - RB - TEN
02.02 Al B. Sure - Matt Forte - RB - CHI
02.03 joncha - Eli Manning - QB - NYG
02.04 flash9286 - Larry Fitzgerald - WR - ARI
02.05 Spaced Cowboy - DeMarco Murray - RB - DAL
02.06 OzzyKP - Rob Gronkowski - TE - NE
02.07 Berz - Jimmy Graham - TE - NO
02.08 Jonny - Steven Jackson - RB - STL
02.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Wes Welker - WR - NE
02.10 MRT - Greg Jennings - WR - GB
02.11 snoopy369 - Roddy White - WR - ATL
02.12 Jaguar - Adrian Peterson - RB - MIN

03.01 Jaguar - Trent Richardson - RB - CLE
03.02 snoopy369 - Jamaal Charles - RB -KC
03.03 MRT144 - Victor Cruz - WR - NYG
03.04 Koyaanisqatsi - AJ Green - WR - CIN
03.05 Jonny - Tony Romo - QB - DAL
03.06 Berz - Darren Sproles - RB - NO
03.07 OzzyKP - Marshawn Lynch - RB - SEA
03.08 Spaced Cowboy - Julio Jones - WR -ATL
03.09 flash9286 - Michael Vick - QB - PHI
03.10 joncha - Matt Ryan - QB - ATL
03.11 Al B. Sure - Philip Rivers - QB - SD
03.12 SlowwHand - Andre Johnson - WR - HOU

04.01 SlowwHand - Hakeem Nicks - WR - NYG
04.02 Al B. Sure - Brandon Marshall - WR - CHI
04.03 joncha - Mike Wallace - WR - PIT
04.04 flash9286 - Fred Jackson - RB - BUF
04.05 Spaced Cowboy - Reggie Bush - RB - MIA
04.06 OzzyKP - Steve Smith - WR - CAR
04.07 Berz - Jordy Nelson - WR - GB
04.08 Jonny - Michael Turner - RB - ATL
04.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Jonathan Stewart - RB - CAR
04.10 MRT - Shonn Greene - RB - NYJ
04.11 snoopy369 - Dwayne Bowe - WR - KC
04.12 Jaguar - Doug Martin - RB - TB

05.01 Jaguar - Marques Colston - WR - NO
05.02 snoopy369 - Aaron Hernandez - TE - NE
05.03 MRT144 - Antonio Brown - WR - PIT
05.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Peyton Manning - QB - DEN
05.05 Jonny - Demaryius Thomas - WR - DEN
05.06 Berz - Willis McGahee - RB - DEN
05.07 OzzyKP - Percy Harvin - WR - MIN
05.08 Spaced Cowboy - Ahmad Bradshaw - RB - NYG
05.09 flash9286 - Dez Bryant - WR - DAL
05.10 joncha - Beanie Wells - RB - ARI
05.11 Al B. Sure - Brandon Lloyd - WR - NE
05.12 SlowwHand - Robert Lee Griffin III - QB - WAS

06.01 SlowwHand - Frank Gore - RB - SF
06.02 Al B. Sure - Jeremy Maclin - WR - PHI
06.03 joncha - Antonio Gates - TE - SD
06.04 flash9286 - Stevie Johnson - WR - BUF
06.05 Spaced Cowboy - Vincent Jackson - WR - TB
06.06 OzzyKP - Michael Bush - RB - CHI
06.07 Berz - Miles Austin - WR - DAL
06.08 Jonny - Vernon Davis - TE - SF
06.09 Koyaanisqatsi - DeSean Jackson - WR - PHI
06.10 MRT - Benjarvus Green-Ellis - RB - CIN
06.11 snoopy369 - Donald Brown - RB - IND
06.12 Jaguar - Eric Decker - WR - DEN

07.01 Jaguar - Stevan Ridley - RB - NE
07.02 snoopy369 - Pierre Thomas - RB - NO
07.03 MRT144 - Jermichael Finley - TE - GB
07.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Shane Vereen - RB - NE
07.05 Jonny - DeAngelo Williams - RB - CAR
07.06 Berz - Pierre Garcon - WR - WAS
07.07 OzzyKP - Isaac Redman - RB - PIT
07.08 Spaced Cowboy - Fred Davis - TE - WAS
07.09 flash9286 - Kenny Britt - WR - TEN
07.10 joncha - David Wilson - RB - NYG
07.11 Al B. Sure - Ben Tate - RB - HOU
07.12 SlowwHand - Robert Meachem - WR - SD

08.01 SlowwHand - Brandon Pettigrew - TE - DET
08.02 Al B. Sure - Peyton Hillis - RB - KC
08.03 joncha - Malcom Floyd - WR - SD
08.04 flash9286 - Mark Ingram - RB - NO
08.05 Spaced Cowboy - Justin Blackmon - WR - JAC
08.06 OzzyKP - Cedric Benson - RB - GB
08.07 Berz - Rashard Mendenhall - RB -PIT
08.08 Jonny - Anquan Boldin - WR - BAL
08.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Denarius Moore - WR - OAK
08.10 MRT - Torrey Smith - WR - BAL
08.11 snoopy369 - Chicago Bears - D/ST - CHI
08.12 Jaguar - Reggie Wayne - WR - IND

09.01 Jaguar - Ben Roethlisberger - QB - PIT
09.02 Snoopy369 - Matt Schaub - QB - HOU
09.03 MRT144 - Andy Dalton - QB - CIN
09.04 Koyaanisqatsi - New York Jets - D/ST - NYJ
09.05 Jonny - Jay Cutler - QB - CHI
09.06 Berz - San Francisco 49ers - D/ST - SF
09.07 OzzyKP - Baltimore Ravens - D/ST - BAL
09.08 Spaced Cowboy - Jason Witten - TE - DAL
09.09 flash9286 - Andrew Luck - QB - IND
09.10 joncha - Ryan Williams - RB - ARI
09.11 Al B. Sure - Titus Young - WR - DET
09.12 SlowwHand - C.J. Spiller - RB - BUF

10.01 SlowwHand - Lance Moore - WR - NO
10.02 Al B. Sure - Jermaine Gresham - TE - CIN
10.03 joncha - Sidney Rice - WR - Seattle Trollhawks
10.04 flash9286 - Texans - D/ST - HOU
10.05 Spaced Cowboy - Tony Gonzalez - TE - ATL
10.06 OzzyKP - Darrius Heyward-Bey - WR - OAK
10.07 Berz - Roy Helu - RB - WAS
10.08 Jonny - Nate Washington - WR - TEN
10.09 Koyaanisqatsi - Kyle Rudolph - TE - MIN
10.10 MRT - Daniel Thomas - RB - MIA
10.11 snoopy369 - Jacquizz Rodgers - RB - ATL
10.12 Jaguar - Steelers - D/ST - PIT

11.01 Jaguar - Packers - D/ST - GB
11.02 snoopy369 - Toby Gerhart - RB - MIN
11.03 MRT144 - Josh Freeman - QB - TB
11.04 Koyaanisqatsi - Carson Palmer - QB - CIN
11.05 Jonny - Eagles - D/ST - PHI
11.06 Berz - Laurent Robinson - WR - JAX
11.07 OzzyKP - Ryan Fitzpatrick - QB - BUF
11.08 Spaced Cowboy - NY Giants Defense - D/ST - NYG
11.09 flash9286 - Kevin Smith - RB - DET
11.10 joncha - NE Pats Defense - D/ST - NE
11.11 Al B. Sure - Jared Cook - TE - TEN
11.12 SlowwHand - Dallas Cowboy Defense - DS/T - DAL

12.01 SlowwHand - Jake Locker - QB - TEN
12.02 Al B. Sure - Jacob Tamme - TE - DEN
12.03 joncha - Seattle Trollhawks - D/ST - Homer Pick
12.04 flash9286 - Mike Williams - WR - TB
12.05 Spaced Cowboy - David Akers - K - SF
12.06 OzzyKP - Detroit Lions - D/ST - Homer Pick
12.07 Berz
12.08 Jonny
12.09 Koyaanisqatsi
12.10 MRT144
12.11 snoopy369
12.12 Jaguar

[MRT144]

What. the. ****

He PMed me that he wanted a kicker and listed 5.

[Al B. Sure!]

He PMed me that he wanted a kicker and listed 5.

He expected 4 of them to go already?

[MRT144]

He expected 4 of them to go already?

Maybe he forgot there were 16 rounds.

[snoopy369]

Not everyone agrees that kickers should be taken only in the final round, Al. In fact, that is becoming almost a fringe belief now - more and more statistical publications are showing that kickers are _not_ unpredictable from season to season.

I remember 1998 or so, back when TE was consigned to the next to last round... how's that doing now?

[Al B. Sure!]

Not everyone agrees that kickers should be taken only in the final round, Al. In fact, that is becoming almost a fringe belief now - more and more statistical publications are showing that kickers are _not_ unpredictable from season to season.

I remember 1998 or so, back when TE was consigned to the next to last round... how's that doing now?

Umm... Matt Berry, Chris Harris, and everyone else at ESPN says kickers last. I see the same at all other fantasy sites. It's not purely about unpredictability but also because the point difference doesn't matter, even if you precisely predict one of the top kickers.

The larger point to be made about fantasy kickers -- and the reason you shouldn't consider taking one before the very end of your draft -- is that the difference between them tends to be microscopic. Yes, Akers scored 182 fantasy points last year, and nobody else eclipsed 150. But No. 2 and No. 13 on the kicker rolls were separated by just 19 fantasy points, or about 1.2 points per week. And that's to say nothing of game-to-game variability; the top 10 fantasy kickers from '11 amassed six fantasy points or fewer in 26.4 percent of their starts.

In our league, the No. 2 and No. 13 were separated by 21 fantasy points so it is just as much true for us as in ESPN standard. Hell, considering that we put up much higher total team points in our league than ESPN, those 21 points over a season actually mean less! In ESPN standard, a good QB will get you about 300 points and an RB will be in the 200's. Our league nearly doubles those, while kickers are about comparable to ESPN standard, meaning kickers matter less in our league.


You're being too clever if you don't get a kicker last.

[MRT144]

Not everyone agrees that kickers should be taken only in the final round, Al. In fact, that is becoming almost a fringe belief now - more and more statistical publications are showing that kickers are _not_ unpredictable from season to season.

I remember 1998 or so, back when TE was consigned to the next to last round... how's that doing now?

For me it's not a predictability thing, it's a points over baseline thing. Looking at KUBIAK right now the highest rated kicker is something like 20 points above baseline. That's not really that impressive especially when they're not getting many points to begin with.

[Jaguar]

There's about a 30-point spread, in expectation, between an "elite" kicker and a waiver-wire one. Two extra points per game. It's a meager but noticeable benefit. After the few kickers with elite opportunities are drafted, the last-round kicker strategy is best.

[Al B. Sure!]

For me it's not a predictability thing, it's a points over baseline thing. Looking at KUBIAK right now the highest rated kicker is something like 20 points above baseline. That's not really that impressive especially when they're not getting many points to begin with.

Yes and in our league, kickers are deflated relative to other positions. David Akers' record-breaking year got 192 points in D/ST league... that was 5 more points than what Damien Williams had.

The WR analogue to #2 kicker John Kasey's 156... Preston Parker at 155.

[snoopy369]

I'm not trying to argue with your reasoning, Al. I'm just saying that not everyone believes this anymore; five years ago even it was the 100% gospel truth. Now it's been shown that there is an argument that can be made for picking kickers before the last round.

I believe the argument goes that some kickers _are_ sufficiently predictable, and the rest are not; as such, the few that are sufficiently predictable fetch a premium because even if there is only a 20 point difference between their scoring and baseline, it's difficult to pick a baseline kicker - picking from [Mike Nugent, Billy Cundiff, Olindo Mare] for example is difficult because one of those guys will do well and surpass the baseline by five points or so, one will do around baseline, and one will entirely suck and be ten or more points below baseline.

You're also comparing these guys to backups who will play little or not at all for your team, being in the very late rounds. So, sure, if you get +30 points picking a RB this round versus next, good on you, but if you're relying on that RB to play a full season for you, you're probably not doing well, unless you found a sleeper who turns out to start for his team or get lucky due to injuries or whatnot. Players who are confident in their starting lineups might feel that 20 points per season is worth it, especially with the pretty solid consistency some of the top kickers have.