Apolyton Fantasy Football - Jaguar's DST League Draft

[snoopy369]

Here's a spreadsheet with all of the selections pasted from Yahoo, feel free to move things around however you want to get it into a useful format.

[OzzyKP]

Here, this is you:

MRT:
QB: Drew Brees, Colt McCoy
RB: Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Joe Addai
WR: Desean Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Santana Moss, Hines Ward, James Jones
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Aaron Hernandez
K: Matt Bryant
DEF: New York Giants, Washington

Drew Brees is an elite fantasy QB. Colt McCoy looks to be this year's Josh Freeman-lite in the Pat Shurmer offense (he was my desired pick for Big Ben's week 11 bye); not big fantasy numbers but coolly efficient, which could help with the new QB system. Great late backup pickup behind Brees. Colt will face off against a porous Jacksonville secondary on Brees' week 11 bye.

The RBs are like a who's who of perennially-injured trudging RBs. I just don't see how Cincinnati can keep going to the obviously mediocre Cedric Benson. Something has got to give. Jacobs will get his carries and put up near-starting numbers, even if Bradshaw plays a full season. Joe Addai is, for all intents and purposes, a clone of Cedric Benson with regards to him being a mediocre player that you just don't see the Colts continuing to rely on if they can get better play from their backups.

Juxtaposed with the sub-4.0 ypc RBs are the flashy WRs. Stevie Johnson may slump this year from receiving more defensive attention; Santana Moss came off his best fantasy season since Mark Brunell was his QB but may have erratic play from John Beck/Rex Grossman; Hines Ward is steady; James Jones is not.

Team Latino at TE A steady TE combined with a risk-reward type in Hernandez.

Giants secondary is falling apart; the linebackers suck; I like Washington's defensive potential in its second year in a 3-4 better than the Giants with all their preseason injuries (3 CB's are out for the season). Washington's problem is they still lack the appropriate personnel for a 3-4 and if their offense can not keep drives alive (or if Rexy turns the ball over), things could get ugly.

Me next! Me next!

I'll even make it easy for you and anyone else that wants to chime in (since I kept track of everything in the rosters thread):


QB Aaron Rodgers GB (1)
RB DeAngelo WIlliams CAR (4)
RB Beanie Wells ARI (6)
WR Hakeem Nicks NYG (2)
WR Mike Wallace PIT (3)
R/W Tim Hightower - RB - WAS (7)
TE Dallas Clark IND (5)
K Neil Rackers HOU (14)
DEF Detroit Lions (8)

BN Pierre Thomas - RB - NO (9)
BN Ryan Torain - RB - WAS (10)
BN David Garrard - QB - JAX (11)
BN Johnny Knox - WR - CHI (12)
BN Greg Olsen - TE - CAR (13)
BN Oakland Raiders - D/ST (15)
BN Derrick Mason - WR - NYJ (16)

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Me next! Me next!

I'll even make it easy for you and anyone else that wants to chime in (since I kept track of everything in the rosters thread)

Mine are in that thread too. Presumably the DST Deviations aren't too focused on the ground game, so feel free to laugh and point.

Edit: Oh, fine.

QB - Tom Brady NE (1)
QB - Brian Hoyer NE (15)

RB - Mark Ingram NO (4)
RB - Fred Jackson BUF (6)
RB - Willis McGahee DEN (10)
RB - Bernard Scott CIN (12)
RB - Stevan Ridley NE (14)

WR - Andre Johnson HOU (2)
WR - Vincent Jackson SD (3)
WR - Anquan Boldin BAL (5)
WR - Jacoby Ford OAK (9)
WR - Greg Little CLE (13)

TE - Rob Gronkowski NE (7)
TE - Brandon Pettigrew DET (11)

DEF - Green Bay Packers (8)

K - Nate Kaeding SD (14)

[snoopy369]

Well, if you insist.

QB Aaron Rodgers GB (1)
RB DeAngelo WIlliams CAR (4)
RB Beanie Wells ARI (6)
WR Hakeem Nicks NYG (2)
WR Mike Wallace PIT (3)
R/W Tim Hightower - RB - WAS (7)
TE Dallas Clark IND (5)
K Neil Rackers HOU (14)
DEF Detroit Lions (8)

BN Pierre Thomas - RB - NO (9)
BN Ryan Torain - RB - WAS (10)
BN David Garrard - QB - JAX (11)
BN Johnny Knox - WR - CHI (12)
BN Greg Olsen - TE - CAR (13)
BN Oakland Raiders - D/ST (15)
BN Derrick Mason - WR - NYJ (16)

QB: Rodgers is obviously very solid, so it probably won't matter that you have Garrard backing him up. But if the Pack's line falls apart like it did in 2009, and Rodgers misses more games, you may be in for a long season, given Garrard has very little talent around him.
RB: Oh boy. DWill was a good deal in the 4th, but that's your real problem - you didn't take an RB until the 4th round. Given Jonathan Stewart is around, and DWill has a serious injury history, plus nothing good in the offense department, he's not exactly a lock for double digit TDs or 1200 yards. Behind him is Beanie Wells, which turned from a really bad RB2 to a decent RB2 with the demise of Ryan Williams; Tim Hightower, who could be a decent flex play, depending on the whim of the Shanahan, and a bunch of guys on the wrong side of time-shares on your bench. You're really testing the ability of a team to win without solid RBs here...
WR: Nicks is good, though I'm not quite as high on him as most of the crowd. Mike Wallace is also a great talent, and will get a lot of long yardage plays, which in this particular setup is really key. I still think you're going to pay for not grabbing a RB in the 2nd or 3rd, but these two guys are definitely solid. Backups are weak though; Knox may or may not start for a bad Bears offense, while Derrick Mason is on the wrong side of old.
TE is another position of strength for you, both your starter (Clark) and the necessary backup for the recently injured Clark (Olsen) are quite good. Clark will benefit from the colts-friendly settings (this is Jaguar's league after all).
D/ST is your other weakness. A bit of homerism going for the Lions, though they're not that bad, they weren't worth an 8th round pick. Fortunately, D/ST is not a big deal in this league (probably), and the Lions get to play several mediocre to bad teams - as do the Raiders, so you can play matchups effectively.

Overall, your team relies on two things: Rodgers' health, and your WRs scoring. I think that you'll find the WRs are too inconsistent; they'll help you blow teams out sometimes, and then lose close matchups other times when they aren't having big games. Going WR heavy, particularly with big play WRs, is very dangerous, and probably doesn't lead to overall success unless paired with a powerful RB (or two).

Snoopy Prediction: 6-7, misses playoffs.

[snoopy369]

QB - Tom Brady NE (1)
QB - Brian Hoyer NE (15)

RB - Mark Ingram NO (4)
RB - Fred Jackson BUF (6)
RB - Willis McGahee DEN (10)
RB - Bernard Scott CIN (12)
RB - Stevan Ridley NE (14)

WR - Andre Johnson HOU (2)
WR - Vincent Jackson SD (3)
WR - Anquan Boldin BAL (5)
WR - Jacoby Ford OAK (9)
WR - Greg Little CLE (13)

TE - Rob Gronkowski NE (7)
TE - Brandon Pettigrew DET (11)

DEF - Green Bay Packers (8)

K - Nate Kaeding SD (14)

QB: Brady will score plenty of points, though your lack of real backup will cost you one win during your bye week. In general though you're fine at QB as long as he doesn't get hurt (in which case the Brian Hoyer experiment would begin...)
RB: Actually not as horrid as you suggest. Mark Ingram is a solid RB2, with RB1 upside. He'll score a lot, and should get good long runs that help in this scoring system - assuming Sean sticks with him, that is, and he stays healthy (a big ? right now). Fred Jackson was a good deal in the 6th. The rest of your backs, however, are pretty slim, similarly to Ozzy; better hope you don't have any injuries.
WR: Andre Johnson is a fantasy god, for the 14 or so games he's not hurt. Hopefully those include week 15 and 16. VJax is a bit of a question mark, but should generally be good. Boldin I'm a bit less sure of, though he should be adequate as a Flex starter. Ford and Little are both good upside picks, but with a very low floor as well; but one will likely rise up.
TE: Not sure Gronkowski was worth a 7th round pick. Not that much more upside than Keller, who I got in the 14th or so.
D/ST: Packers D is likely to be very effective this season, especially if the Bears don't figure things out on offense. Six games vs. the 3 worst teams in the NFC North makes for a lot of points. Not playing matchups is a bit risky, but GB has a pretty easy schedule thanks to the NFC North and should do fine.

Overall: Similarly to Ozzie, you are thin at RB and will have trouble with consistency. Brady's a bit safer at QB (though probably lower scoring), and Ingram is safer at RB; but the lack of a real #3 RB means you really aren't much better off. Lacking a top line TE will also cost you significantly.

Snoopy prediction: 5-8, miss playoffs.

[MRT144]

I think my experience last year should illustrate the peril of stud WRs and TE and bad RBs. I did well but not well enough. You need at least one solid dude at RB.

[SlowwHand]

Dallas Dwarf Tossers D/ST

QB Joe Flacco BAL (5)
RB Jamaal Charles KC (1)
RB Shonn Greene NYJ (3)
WR Calvin Johnson DET (2)
WR Julio Jones ATL (6)
R/W Reggie Bush MIA (7)
TE Jason Witten DAL (4)
K Rob Bironas TEN (14)
DEF Baltimore (8)

BN Michael Crabtree WR SF (9)
BN Ryan Fitzpatrick QB BUF (10)
BN Roy Williams WR CHI (11)
BN Thomas Jones RB KC (12)
BN KC Defense D/ST (13)
BN Toby Gerhart RB MIN (15)
BN Andy Dalton QB CIN (16)

[snoopy369]

MRT, since his picks are above already and I have some time...

MRT:
QB: Drew Brees, Colt McCoy - QB is a fairly safe place here, of course Brees is great, and I think McCoy will have a good season.
RB: Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Joe Addai - A bit risky at the top here, but the bottom evens things out. Addai is great in PPR leagues, and Jacobs is a pretty solid play at flex. Even if Benson or SJax doesn't pan out, you have a couple of solid fillins.
WR: Desean Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Santana Moss, Hines Ward, James Jones - Not a Desean fan, but Stevie Johnson and Santana Moss are pretty good choices. You won't be the highest WR scorer, but they won't drag you down either most weeks, and Desean will periodically score very well.
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Aaron Hernandez - Not great, but not horrid. Again, I'd have waited some on TE compared to this talent level, but TG is still worth some points, and Hernandez could be the top TE in NE.
K: Matt Bryant
DEF: New York Giants, Washington - Middle of the road DEFs, NYG may score well in this scoring system particularly given the NFCE's opposition.

Overall: For a 14 team league, surprisingly few weaknesses. Not sure this will be enough to beat the top teams, and if neither of your risk/reward RBs pan out you may be in for some difficulties, but on average I'd expect you to win more than you lose.

Snoopy prediction: 7-6, make playoffs.

[snoopy369]

Sloww:
QB Joe Flacco BAL (5)
RB Jamaal Charles KC (1)
RB Shonn Greene NYJ (3)
WR Calvin Johnson DET (2)
WR Julio Jones ATL (6)
R/W Reggie Bush MIA (7)
TE Jason Witten DAL (4)
K -Rob Bironas - TEN (14)
DEF Baltimore (8)

BN Michael Crabtree WR SF (9)
BN Ryan Fitzpatrick QB BUF (10)
BN Roy Williams WR CHI (11)
BN Thomas Jones RB KC (12)
BN KC Defense D/ST (13)
BN Toby Gerhart - RB - MIN (15)
BN Andy Dalton - QB - CIN (16)

QB: Between Flacco and Fitzpatrick, you probably could make one good QB. I tried to ride Flacco last year with some success, but QB is not your strength. Perhaps the addition of Lee Evans will improve his deep game and allow him to open up a bit more.
RB: Jamaal will score a lot, especially if he steals some more carries from T.J. Shonn I'm not as impressed with, though he could break out at any time and is a favorite of several (east coast...) fantasy mags. Reggie Bush will probably do alright in MIA but isn't necessarily going to beat anybody up; I doubt he holds the starting job long (if at all).
WR: Calvin will do well this year, as long as his QB stays healthy; the question is will both of them still be around come playoff time. Julius Jones will score his points in ATL, but isn't likely to be more than a low WR2. Crabtree and Williams are decent upside longshots, and Crabtree should score enough day-in-day-out points to be a solid backup.
TE: Witten is going to score very well in this format.
D/ST: Baltimore will do well this year, but they have some tough competition in PIT, and CLE is not quite the pushover they have been in the past. Not sure where your'e going with KC D/ST.

Overall: I think that this team has a lot of possibilities to do well, but the risk of totally collapsing is also there. Flacco, Greene, Juilo, could all either buoy this team to a playoff spot, or send it down in flames. I think you're going to need to trade for a better QB at some point, and I'm not sure you have the chips to get that position filled.

Snoopy prediction: 7-6, miss playoffs.

[MRT144]

Do you think any team wins more than 7?

[snoopy369]

My team:
Chester's Tailors
1. (7) Ray Rice (Bal - RB)
2. (22) Roddy White (Atl - WR)
3. (35) Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)
4. (50) Josh Freeman (TB - QB)
5. (63) Ryan Grant (GB - RB)
6. (78) Marques Colston (NO - WR)
7. (91) Kevin Kolb (Ari - QB)
8. (106) LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ - RB)
9. (119) Atlanta (Atl - DEF)
10. (134) Justin Forsett (Sea - RB)
11. (147) Davone Bess (Mia - WR)
12. (162) Seattle (Sea - DEF)
13. (175) Ronnie Brown (Phi - RB)
14. (190) Dustin Keller (NYJ - TE)
15. (203) Marion Barber (Chi - RB)
16. (218) Robbie Gould (Chi - K)

QB: Freeman should do decently this year, though he's no Brees or Rivers. Kolb is at minimum a good backup, and could excel if he figures out the Whisenhunt offense ("Pass the ball to Larry Fitzgerald").
RB: Stud and dregs. Rice will score very well this year, particularly with goal line carries, and excels in the PPR format. Grant could be a solid RB2, or could be a free agent in a few weeks; we'll see which is which. After that there are a bunch of question marks. LT was very effective last year, and could be again; but there's a significant possibility that a WR for RB trade will be needed down the line.
WR: Three WR1s is usually a good WR class, but when two of them are Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald, it's even better. This is where most of my points will come from this year, and there's definitely the possibility of a trade later on in the season if the RBs aren't working well. Bess is a solid WR4 who can fill WR3 if one of the big three gets traded.
TE: Nothing spectacular, but Keller will not be the lowest scoring starting TE in the fantasy league this year, and given he was acquired in the 14th round should be a good value pick.
D/ST: ATL and SEA match up very well on defense; SEA has some of the worst teams in the league playing against it on the weeks Atlanta faces tits hardest opposition.

Overall: I think my team will perform reasonably well, although the hole at RB will be a significant question mark much of the season. If Ryan Grant starts or at least gets 51%+ of the carries in GB, I think the team will do fine; if he is cut or benched, it'll depend on my abilities to find other RBs to fill that void.

Snoopy prediction: 8-5, makes playoffs.

[snoopy369]

Do you think any team wins more than 7?

Well, yes. I don't think any team is so far ahead that I'm willing to project 10-3, though there is one team I think will go 9-4 and I don't doubt that at least one team _will_ win double digits; I'm just not sure enough to predict it. Fantasy is so up-and-down that you have to predict with a wide margin of error. I'd say 90% of teams fall in [5-8 .. 8-5].

[MRT144]

The real weakness I see on your team is that the depth is lacking and you are potentially one injury away to Fitz or White from having to start Bess or worse at WR (because I think Colston has serious injury problems that makes Peyton look like he's a spring chicken.) which would set your team back completely. I'd even say that Fitz underperforming would be bad for you. The RBs are also a question of depth but they wouldnt be your bread winners anyway.

[snoopy369]

Peyton has the current longest consecutive start streak for an NFL player, and has an outside chance of catching Favre's career mark. I hardly think he's a good comparison point for durability And Fitz/White are both solid, no real injury risk players. Bess starting would still be better WR3 than most, if Colston does go down...

I think my team lives or dies based on the RB2 performance. If I get adequate RB2 performance, the rest will be fine. If not, then I'd rely on maximal performances by all of my WRs, which is not necessarily likely. I really don't think WR is going to be an issue for me. Look at every other team at WR - there's not one that has the equivalent. 14 team league, and I have what would be the top WR set in most 10 team leagues... it's the only reason I was willing to take Fitz and Colston where I did - they were just so far down from where they ought to have been taken.

[snoopy369]

Jaguar's:
Mountain Goats
1. (13) LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB)
2. (16) Frank Gore (SF - RB)
3. (41) Matt Schaub (Hou - QB)
4. (44) Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
5. (69) Vernon Davis (SF - TE)
6. (72) Daniel Thomas (Mia - RB)
7. (97) A.J. Green (Cin - WR)
8. (100) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
9. (125) David Nelson (Buf - WR)
10. (128) Deion Branch (NE - WR)
11. (153) Darren Sproles (NO - RB)
12. (156) Emmanuel Sanders (Pit - WR)
13. (181) Andre Roberts (Ari - WR)
14. (184) Stephen Gostkowski (NE - K)
15. (209) Cleveland (Cle - DEF)
16. (212) Arizona (Ari - DEF)

QB: Schaub and Eli will perform well this year; odds are one of them may even hit the first tier in scoring, but even if that's not true both are fine second tier players, and either can be offered in trade or played for matchups.
RB: McCoy will be a stud this year, and was a great pick at 1.13. Gore on the other hand is a bit of a risk, though when healthy he'll do very well. Daniel Thomas can fill in at RB for Gore when he's hurt, or play flex, as long as Reggie Bush doesn't turn into something he's not, and the MIA coaches aren't idiots (which they may well be, so who knows). Sproles isn't as valuable here as in IDP, with the return yards and all, but he's not much worse than a lot of RB4s, as long as he doesn't have to fill in for more than a few bye weeks here and there. This is a position Jag appears to be strong in, but has significant risks.
WR: A lot of potential here, but nothing solid. Several big play WRs (Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Roberts), and one reasonably well understood WR (Branch). If Jag's guesses pan out, he'll get significant value out of his WRs; if not, he will be in for a long season.
TE: You can't really go wrong with Vernon Davis. Jag did go for one early WR, and this is it. He'll score like the WR1 Jag doesn't have, but on the other hand, Jag's WR3 will need to at least score like a decent TE...

Overall, Jag's gone all in on his football knowledge. Either he's guessed right on the WRs, in which case he could be in for a big season (though nothing close to his undefeated regular season a few years ago), or he's come up flat, in which case he will not have a winning season. He needs to hit it big on one of his WRs, and get reasonable numbers from two others, to have a real chance, plus have Gore make it through most of the season healthy. 5-8 is not unimaginable for this squad, but neither is 10-3.

Snoopy prediction: Jag knows his stuff. 8-5, makes playoffs.