"NFL Football is Back!" 2011 Season Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

If Dan Marino had been born 25 years later, would he be throwing closer to 6000 or 7000 yards this season?

No.

Dan Marino threw the ball a crapload. 3 seasons with 600+ passes attempted, 8 seasons between 500 and 600. For comparison, Peyton Manning only had a 600+ passing season once (2010 season), though he hit 500+ every year but two.

So no because Marino was throwing it just as much if not more than QB's now. You'd have to increase his Y/A from a career 7.3 to something much higher to get that crazy yardage and I see no reason why deeper throws would be a given with the changes in the game.

[rah]

Has the YAC average increased with the rules changes?

[Al B. Sure!]

Plus look at his contemporaries. Steve Young had a career Y/A of 8.0, Elway 7.1, Aikman 7.0, Kelly 7.4, Cunningham 7.0.

All those guys didn't throw as much as Marino but they had 7-8 yard per attempt averages like Marino and in line with what today's QB's do (Peyton: 7.5, Brady: 7.5, Brees: 7.4, Kurt Warner: 7.9). That seems like the range that great NFL QB's (and even average ones) manage consistently over the past 30 years.

The difference is that Steve Young, Aikman, Jim Kelly, etc. didn't throw the sheer amount of pass as today's record-breaking QB's do and Dan Marino did.


So no, Dan Marino wouldn't be throwing for more yards unless he somehow shot up his averages beyond what has ever been seen before in the NFL. Marino threw for big yardage back in the day because he plain threw a 2011-level of passing attempts.

[Al B. Sure!]

Has the YAC average increased with the rules changes?

I'm assuming you mean the defenseless receiver rule. That's only been since this season, right? Maybe that did contribute to Brees', Brady's, and Stafford's 5000 yard seasons...

Brees' Y/A was 8.3 this year off 657 attempts. Brady: 8.6 off 611 attempts. Stafford: 7.6 off 663.

Those are really high though Stafford's yardage seems to be more because of his sheer attempts (663 attempts since he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt which is in that 7-8 range that good QB's are usually in). Still, Brees and Brady's Y/A went up possibly because his WR's were able to get more yards after the catch because tacklers had to be more careful.

Though I should note that hitting 8+ yards per attempt is not uncharted territory for those two QB's. Brady hit 8.3 in 2007. Brees hit 8.0 in 2006, 8.0 in 2008, and an even higher 8.5 in 2009.

So that makes me think no, the rule changes didn't matter because Brees and Brady were hitting these numbers in previous years.

Brees and Brady are just elite throwing 600+ times to scrappy west coast WR's who can get big yardage after the catch regardless of rules changes. That's why they broke Marino's record.

[Al B. Sure!]

I will say that Marino's big year, he averaged an unreal 9.0 yards per attempt and hit 5084 on 'only' 564 pass attempts (which is a crapload by even today's standards though less than the 600+ of Brees, Brady, and Stafford this year). In later seasons, he would throw just as much (often more) but his Y/A dropped to more reasonable levels and he never hit 5000+ again.

So again, no. As special as Marino's '84 season was, I see no reason for him to be throwing for bigger numbers in today's game. He'd be just like Peyton Manning in today's game, not some 6000 yard passing monster. The reason Marino was so beastly in yardage in his day was simply because he threw more than Montana, Elway, Young, Aikman, Kelly, etc. did. He had a 2000's level of passing attempts in the 80's and 90's.

[Demonbinder]

I was talking about Tebow, but that is because we were talking about the game. I do not discount it for other QB's. I have always hated that some QB's are considered great when many of the stats are based on YAC. I do feel that stats should only give the QB the actual yardage thrown and that WR stats should reflect YAC. It would give a much better idea of who is the best in each category.

[rah]

While I somewhat agree, sometimes YAC is largely based on the QB hitting the receiver in stride. That's more on the QB than on the receiver.

It's a lot easier to have larger YAC if you're hit in stride than if you're been hung out to dry on a high pass up the middle.

[Ming]

I was talking about Tebow, but that is because we were talking about the game. I do not discount it for other QB's. I have always hated that some QB's are considered great when many of the stats are based on YAC. I do feel that stats should only give the QB the actual yardage thrown and that WR stats should reflect YAC. It would give a much better idea of who is the best in each category.

Totally disagree... You have to give QB's (and their coaches) credit for hitting the WIDE open receiver that can make the YAC. If there is nobody around to tackle, the credit should be shared. Sure, if the guy breaks a few tackles and turns a short play into big one... yeah, it's the WR. But if due to the play... the WR running the perfect route... and the QB hitting him in stride... and it goes for huge yardage... that's not just the WR.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I remember hearing that people used to bash Montana because "the WRs did all the work". It is hard for them to do all the work if you aren't hitting them with perfect timing. Of course, the West Coast offense was new in the 80s and people weren't necessarily used to all these timing patterns, but we know that it ain't all that easy to do - to throw to a spot and know your guy will be there.

[-Jrabbit]

Yeah, the 8-yd slant to Jerry Rice turned into a crapload of big gainers for both Montana and Young. Today, those patterns are smothered more often than not.

But watching New England this year, there was definitely a lot of scheme-based YAC, with plays designed to get Welker and the two TEs in a space where they have just one man to beat. When you have two TEs in best mode against a DB or safety, there's a ton of free yards to be had. That said, props to Brady for getting them the ball.

[SlowwHand]

It's called making a pick. Getting in the way. It's supposed to be illegal.

[Al B. Sure!]

Yeah, the 8-yd slant to Jerry Rice turned into a crapload of big gainers for both Montana and Young. Today, those patterns are smothered more often than not.

But watching New England this year, there was definitely a lot of scheme-based YAC, with plays designed to get Welker and the two TEs in a space where they have just one man to beat. When you have two TEs in best mode against a DB or safety, there's a ton of free yards to be had. That said, props to Brady for getting them the ball.

Yeah good TE's are uncoverable. Too big for DB's and too fast for LB's.

It's funny that NE came close to having two 1000 yard TE's (!!!!) this season. Hernandez finished with 910.

That 2010 draft is shaping into probably the greatest draft ever for TE's: Gresham (1st round); Gronkowski (2nd round); Ed Dickson, Tony Moeaki, and Jimmy Graham (3rd round); Aaron Hernandez (4th round).

[-Jrabbit]

I can't help but wonder if it's more about changes in offensive philosphy than it is that particular TE class.

Greg Olsen was supposed to be that kind of guy; he just hasn't found the right offense yet.

[SlowwHand]

Like practically doing away with the FB position?

BECAUSE, (before a certain person starts arguing for the hell of it) it either adds another WR stretching the field or there are two TE's. One stays in to block and the other one slips out into a pattern.

[OzzyKP]

Or perhaps it has more to do with all the changes to officiating making defenses more cautious in how they play.