NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - Off Season

[MRT144]

What is it, like 50-60 million guaranteed? I would grab the money (depending on what happens with the CBA) now.

But my 20-year-old self might see Luck's POV.

You can't put a price on going to furd and being top dog there. And the relative utility of millions of dollars isn't that different.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Luck may also see the mess Carolina is in right now and decide he wants no piece of that (or at least delay it for a year).

[Guynemer]

So apparently Miami is going to keep Sparano, after reportedly offering Harbaugh the biggest coaching contract in history?

HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!

[-Jrabbit]

You can't put a price on going to furd and being top dog there. And the relative utility of millions of dollars isn't that different.

Actually, putting a price on it is exactly what's under discussion. I suspect if someone offered my $60 million -- guaranteed -- to skip that last couple years of college, I would have found it pretty persuasive.

[MRT144]

Actually, putting a price on it is exactly what's under discussion. I suspect if someone offered my $60 million -- guaranteed -- to skip that last couple years of college, I would have found it pretty persuasive.

Sorry I was drunk.

[-Jrabbit]

You say shallow; I say practical. Hey, I'm not slammin' the kid for sticking around. Good on him. Hope he stays healthy.

But "relative utility" of $60million will last a lot longer than that extra year on campus.

[SlowwHand]

Actually, he could opt to stay 2 more years.

[ColdWizard]

So apparently Miami is going to keep Sparano, after reportedly offering Harbaugh the biggest coaching contract in history?
HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!

Clearly it was a situation where they would rather keep Sparano if they couldn't get Harbaugh.

Actually, putting a price on it is exactly what's under discussion. I suspect if someone offered my $60 million -- guaranteed -- to skip that last couple years of college, I would have found it pretty persuasive.

I had heard (or read) that there was going to be a rookie payscale in place before the draft this year. Not certain about the source though.

[-Jrabbit]

The NFL CBA is the wildcard here. A lot of guys went pro last year because of the possible salary cap/rookie pay scale. Any firm rookie payscale will certainly hurt the top few picks the most. It's my guess that this plays a major role in Luck's decision.

My prediction/guess is that the current CBA will be extended at the 11th hour, since virtually no pro sports leagues seem to be able to negotiate agreements within normal timeframes.

[Al B. Sure!]

So apparently Miami is going to keep Sparano, after reportedly offering Harbaugh the biggest coaching contract in history?

HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!

I don't see what's so crazy at all about this. Sparano was in that weird limbo where the Dolphins were reaching out to guys like Harbaugh or Cowher without having actually fired Sparano. Sucks to be in that position for Sparano but the Dolphins were basically like if we can get an upgrade, we're doing it, if not, we'll keep Sparano. Since they couldn't get Harbaugh despite offering him a huge contract, they're sticking with the incumbent.

What will be interesting is if Sparano will be affected at all by this. Players don't like being put on the trading block then taken off and asked to report. No one wants to be the Dead Man Walking.

[-Jrabbit]

Miami will be starting the 2011 season with a lame duck coach. That IS crazy.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Also, I've read that Carolina has 28 unsigned players and the owner has come out and stated he won't sign any Free Agents until the labor situation is resolved. So that could really be a horrid situation to step into.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Good news for the Colts!

http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/colts-tap-quarterback-peyton-manning-to-start-play,18751/

Colts Tap Quarterback Peyton Manning To Start Playoff Game
January 7, 2011 |

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04.17.08 INDIANAPOLIS—Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell told reporters Thursday he has decided to start 13-year veteran and 11-time Pro Bowler Peyton Manning at quarterback for Saturday's wild-card matchup against the New York Jets. "After much deliberation, we believe that Peyton's four MVP awards and one Super Bowl ring give us the best chance to win," said Caldwell, adding that Manning being a first-ballot Hall of Famer "factored somewhat" into his final decision. "Curtis Painter is a promising young player, but at the end of the day, you have to ask yourself, 'Do I go with the guy who has 28 career pass attempts or with the fastest player in NFL history to reach 1,000 completions, 2,000 completions, 3,000 completions, and 4,000 completions?'" Caldwell concluded the press conference by stressing that it's "always week-to-week," but Manning would likely be the frontrunner to start a divisional matchup should he lead the team to victory Saturday

[Imran Siddiqui]

And Harbaugh is to the 49ers! 5 years at $25mil.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5999744

[Al B. Sure!]

I was just looking at some of the AFC Champion odds and I'm puzzled by something:

Baltimore Ravens +800
Indianapolis Colts +1000
Kansas City Chiefs +1500
New England Patriots -160
New York Jets +1000
Pittsburgh Steelers +275

I don't gamble online but doesn't it work like +800 means a successful $100 bet nets you $800?

If so, what the heck? If you put $100 on each of the Colts, Ravens, Jets, and Chiefs, your net gain/loss profile would look like this depending on which team finally wins the AFC:

Pats win: -400 (lose your $400 wager)
Steelers: -400
Ravens: +500 (+800- $300 lost wager)
Colts: +700
Jets: +700
Chiefs: +1200

That seems to indicate to me that the bookkeepers believe that there is a 55% chance the AFC champ will be either PIT or NE and another 45% that it will be any of the other 4 playoff teams.

If the actual probability of PIT or NE winning the AFC is lower than 55%, then that would be a steal of a wager.

Are the Pats or Steelers that likely to win the AFC?

I looked at the NFC and you can't do the same put $100 on 4/6 team strategy; best case scenario there (unless you bet on the Seahawks and they win), you'll net ~0 but are exposing yourself to possible losses for nothing.

I realize that assuming a 50% chance of any team winning any given game, then those wildcard round four teams would only have a 12.5% chance each of winning the AFC whereas the Pats and Steelers have 25% chance by virtue of playing one less game so factor in a home field advantage or whatever else and it makes sense that the Pats or Steelers would have a combined 55% chance of taking the AFC but why is that likelihood not being factored into the NFC lines? Is it especially likely the Pats or Steelers are heading to the SB?