College Football 2010: So it begins

[SlowwHand]

I think they'll stick with Garrett. Maybe not, but that's what I think. If not, Harbaugh would be my first choice.

[SlowwHand]

1. Oregon
2. TCU
3. Auburn
4. Wisconsin
5. Ohio State
6. Stanford
7. Michigan State
8. Boise State
9. Arkansas
10. Oklahoma

[Boris Godunov]

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Stanford
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan State
8. Boise State
9. Oklahoma
10. Nevada

[Tuberski]

This was posted earlier today on a Michigan fan site, before the Miami-USF game; it has since been redacted:

Well, Shannon was fired last night.

ACK!

[Guynemer]

Reason #4,739 to blow up the BCS:

An 11-1 Big Ten team (almost certainly Michigan State) will not be participating in a BCS bowl, while an 8-4 (at best!) Big East team will. (To say nothing of 11-1 Nevada and Boise State.)

[Solomwi]

See these polls, Solomwi? That's why I said TCU would be dancing if Alabama had played the whole game against Auburn. You quoted me and asked if I even watched football.
Let me ask you now, do you even watch football?

I know why you said it. My question had to do with the inanity of your "if Alabama played the whole game" premise. You understand, right, that when two good teams play one another, there are usually stretches where both teams look dominant? You understand, right, that Alabama has shown a tendency this season to not "play the whole game" when they get some resistance from the other team? You understand, right, that for Alabama to have been in that 24-0 position to begin with took Auburn not "playing the whole game"?

Yes, I watch football. That's why I find your comments on the subject so facepalmingly dumb.

[SlowwHand]

A whole half. That's more than a stretch.

[Tupac Shakur]

Reason #4,739 to blow up the BCS:

An 11-1 Big Ten team (almost certainly Michigan State) will not be participating in a BCS bowl, while an 8-4 (at best!) Big East team will. (To say nothing of 11-1 Nevada and Boise State.)

To be fair to the BCS, it's the Big Ten's own fault that they have a regular season that allows for three 11-1 co-champions to emerge.

[Solomwi]

A whole half. That's more than a stretch.

About what I thought. My question was meant generally, but that makes it clear both the question and the presumptive "no" answer apply specifically to that game, too.

[Solomwi]

To be fair to the BCS, it's the Big Ten's own fault that they have a regular season that allows for three 11-1 co-champions to emerge.

Yes, but, necessary evil though they may be, it's the BCS's own fault that the Big East is an AQ conference.

[Tupac Shakur]

To be fair, it's the ACC's fault that the Big East sucks.

[Solomwi]

I thought the BCS contract had been renewed since that shift happened.

[reismark]

OK, time to decipher the BCS a little bit. We know that four of the top five teams this week are in no matter what:

Oregon (even if they lose, they'd still be Pac-10 champs)
TCU (just a matter of whether it's the NCG or, more likely, the Rose)
Stanford (their berth is automatic according to BCS AQ bylaw #6, since Oregon will be Pac-10 champion even if they lose)
Wisconsin (they are Big Ten champs according to tiebreaker rules)

I also highly doubt that Auburn drops out even if they lose this week, merely based on current standing and past precedent.

That leaves the last five spots for the following:

ACC champion (Virginia Tech or Florida State)
Big East champion (Connecticut, West Virginia, or Pittsburgh, in that order of likelihood)
Big 12 champion (Nebraska or Oklahoma)
A second SEC team (South Carolina if they win the championship, Arkansas if they don't)
A second Big Ten team (Ohio State or Michigan State)

That last one's going to be MIGHTY interesting. It's hard to pick between the two because they didn't play each other this year. Ohio State has the higher BCS ranking working to their favor, but Michigan State has a win over Wisconsin on their resume, while Ohio State has a loss. Sentiment will also be on the Spartans' side since they've never played in a BCS bowl before, and there's certainly precedent for them being selected over the Buckeyes - Kansas got selected for the Orange Bowl over Missouri in 2007 despite not making the Big 12 title game after losing the Border War that year, so we'll see how things turn out.

The other interesting question is where the albatross (the Big East champion) will end up. On the surface you would think it'd be the Fiesta - since they have last pick this year - but I REALLY don't think it makes any sense from a financial standpoint to send them across the country and send Stanford back the other way, and BCS team selection bylaw #5D gives them the power to adjust matchups other than the NCG with those factors in mind. It would also represent a bit of a bum rap for the Fiesta given that they got stuck with both of the non-power qualifiers last year. So I really think that ultimately, the Big East champion will end up in the Orange or the Sugar, with the Orange making more sense given that one of the two potential ACC champions (Virginia Tech) has Big East history, and with the Big East having been to the Sugar last year.

So here's what I'm guessing we'll get come this time next week:

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Auburn vs. Oregon
ROSE BOWL: TCU vs. Wisconsin
ORANGE BOWL: Virginia Tech vs. Connecticut/West Virginia/Pittsburgh
SUGAR BOWL: Arkansas vs. Ohio State/Michigan State
FIESTA BOWL: Nebraska vs. Stanford

Oregon will win the Civil War fairly easily, and Auburn will prevail over South Carolina comfortably (if a bit tighter than the Civil War), relegating TCU to the Rose against Wisconsin. It's hard to pick against Virginia Tech given that they haven't lost since the James Madison embarrassment (with Georgia Tech being the only team that's given them a real challenge) while Florida State has struggled against lesser competition at times this year. I've got no clue what will happen in the Big East - the conference has been playing hot potato with the front-runner spot for weeks - and since what they do has no impact on anyone else, I'm not even going to try. I'm taking Nebraska in the Big 12 championship - given their heartbreak loss in the championship last year, the fact that it's their last year in the conference, and Oklahoma expending a lot of emotion in Stillwater this past week, the Cornhuskers will want it more. I'm not going to make a prediction between Ohio State and Michigan State, but I'm firmly on the Spartans' side of the argument (only intensified by the dumbass comments by the Ohio State president last week) and I'll be crossing my fingers for them.

That's how I see it...

[Guynemer]

Sad to say, there is no way on God's green Earth that the Spartans get selected ahead of the Buckeyes.

[Tupac Shakur]

Sad to say, there is no way on God's green Earth that the Spartans get selected ahead of the Buckeyes.

QFT. Sentiment means jack **** to bowl chairmen, who will never in a million years pass up a draw like Ohio State for Sparty.

Kansas got selected for the Orange Bowl over Missouri in 2007

Kansas was picked because they would travel better than the notoriously ****ty Missouri fanbase. C.R.E.A.M.

I'm taking Nebraska in the Big 12 championship

That's not a very smart pick. Also, no bowl is going to take the Big East champ unless they have no other choice. Sorry, Fiesta Bowl.