Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[-Jrabbit]

I think Eli's floor is much lower, and Brady's ceiling much higher. It's the diference between "startable" and "dependable" over the season.

[Al B. Sure!]

I think Eli's floor is much lower, and Brady's ceiling much higher. It's the diference between "startable" and "dependable."

I'm of course not saying I would rather have Eli on my fantasy team than Brady... I'm just saying that a lot of times for fantasy, you need consistency from week to week more than absolute numbers. Brady vs. Eli is a bad example because they are both so consistent and Brady obviously outperforms Eli overall but if you were to compare Eli Manning and Rex Grossman in 2006, Eli had 3244 yards and 24 TDs, Rex had 3193 yards and 23 TDs so they were virtually identical that year... but most people would rather have the weekly ho-hum 2006 Eli Manning than the erratic one week he's throwing 4 TDs, the next 4 INTs Rex Grossman.

Of course, if you're desperate, you might prefer Rex...

Oops wrong year.

I think it's more appropriate to say that Eli and Brady have the same floor just Brady's ceiling is higher. That's really the difference.

[-Jrabbit]

The other key difference: the year you're comparing (09), Brady was still recovering from injury.
And no, when both go bad, Eli is worse -- becasue he'll throw in the occasional 3-INT disaster. Lower floor.

[Al B. Sure!]

Oops... I was looking at Eli's 2006 stats and comparing to Brady!

Last year:
Eli: 9 games 2+ TDs; 4 games 3 TDs
Brady: 7 games 2+ TDs; 4 games 3+ TDs

So Eli had 2 more games with 2+ TDs but Brady had a 4 TD game and a 6 TD game while Eli never threw for more than 3 TDs in a game

[Al B. Sure!]

The other key difference: the year you're comparing (09), Brady was still recovering from injury.
And no, when both go bad, Eli is worse -- becasue he'll throw in the occasional 3-INT disaster. Lower floor.

Eli threw 14 INTs last year, Brady threw 13. Brady had 3 games in which he threw 2 INTs, Eli had 2 games with 2 INTs and 1 with 3 INTs.

I guess your occasional 3-INT disaster theory holds but overall, looks to be that the floors are about the same

[Al B. Sure!]

Oh and the injury excuse doesn't hold much water. Eli had plantar fasciitis all season last year. A healthy Eli might have had an even higher ceiling

[-Jrabbit]

Don't get me wrong; I have nothing against Eli. He started about 10 games for me in an FFZ league last year, and I was thankful to have him. But I will draft Brady significantly earlier every time.

[Al B. Sure!]

Don't get me wrong; I have nothing against Eli. He started about 10 games for me in an FFZ league last year, and I was thankful to have him. But I will draft Brady significantly earlier every time.

Yeah of course, as you should. Brady has a much higher ceiling which he approaches most games of the year... I'm just trying to show that Eli's floor is about the same as Brady's floor.

I also think, injury or not, last year will be representative of Brady's career from now on out. He's not going to throw for 4800 yards and 50 TD's again or even come close to it. For most of his career, he's been a 3600 yard, 24-28 TD passer... He'll revert back to his mean or hover just above it (4000 yards and under 30 TDs I think) from now on, numbers which aren't higher than what Eli Manning is capable of.

[Solomwi]

Umm... if Vick out-passes Brady then it doesn't matter how Eli or Smith do because he would still be your best option. If Brady < Vick and Vick < Eli and Vick < Smith... do you think Brady > Smith? If I think Vick will out-pass Brady, is there any logic in starting Brady since he could only do worse for you against Eli or Smith. Am I right? Instead of me comparing Vick and Brady each to Eli and Smith each, I simplified things by just comparing Vick and Brady, the only meaningful comparison.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Eli out-passes all three of them. Tennessee had to play against Dennis Dixon/Charlie Batch and Jason Campbell running for his life. That's not very meaningful.

No. Given Donegeal's format, if you start Brady and both Brady and Vick outpass Eli/Smith, but Vick outrushes Brady, you've given up a rushing yards advantage. It doesn't matter whether Brady outpassed Vick or vice versa.

[SlowwHand]

It matters because Vick is finally learning that he's being paid to use his arm. His new coaches aren't going to put up with his historically undisciplined approach to the game.

[-Jrabbit]

That's fair enough. I just remember a couple of really painful games in the sub-20-point category last year. They were killers, and I traded for Big Ben to carry me the final weeks into the playoffs.

Tangent: Cutler is starting off as one of the best QB values in this year's draft. We'll see.

[Solomwi]

It matters because Vick is finally learning that he's being paid to use his arm. His new coaches aren't going to put up with his historically undisciplined approach to the game.

No, it still doesn't matter when the question is who Donegeal should start this week.

[-Jrabbit]

Is that what we were talking about?

[EPW]

I'm not starting Eli this week.

[Al B. Sure!]

No. Given Donegeal's format, if you start Brady and both Brady and Vick outpass Eli/Smith, but Vick outrushes Brady, you've given up a rushing yards advantage. It doesn't matter whether Brady outpassed Vick or vice versa.

I'll admit I haven't looked too much into his format but if you think Vick outpasses Brady then that's who you start, regardless of how Eli or Smith do... I don't know what his format is like but I assume more yards the better.

Of course I could be wrong and Brady passes for more yards than Vick, but if I'm right, Vick's rushing yardage would just be an added bonus.

The point is, unless somehow more yards is not a good thing all the time, then if I say Vick will out-pass Brady, that's it. I've said who I think he should start. Comparisons to Eli or Smith are unnecessary because I think Brady will do worse than Vick this week.

What sense is there in, after saying Vick will out-pass Brady, to then compare Vick and Eli or Vick and Smith? Or Brady to Eli and Smith? It's not meaningful because it doesn't matter. I think Vick is the best person he has to start this week.


Am I missing something? Maybe to help you all understand, let me come up with arbitrary projections... Brady will throw for 200 yards; Vick will throw for 225 yards and rush for 50 yards. At this point, it doesn't matter what the hell Eli or Smith do because he will be better off with Vick regardless if Eli and Smith both only throw for 200 yards (and he'll win) or they each throw for 400 yards (and he'll lose no matter who he starts).

It does not make any meaningful sense to compare Vick and Smith/Eli or Brady and Smith/Eli... a comparison of Vick and Brady and a determination of who between those two possible starts will have more yardage is the only relevant comparison.


And of course, it goes without saying that Brady isn't going to have any rushing yards so if Vick out-passes Brady, Vick will have more total yards.