College Football '10 - Conference switching chaos!!

[Japher]

Weis officially fired... I so hate ND, 'cept for Montana, he's still kewl.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Least shocking firing... EVAR.

There is an argument to be made that while Weis was better recruiting wise, his tenure may have been more damaging than Willingham's because of how much ND has to pay Weis out.

[reismark]

Really, only two of the top six schools have a capital-letter Win to their credit: Alabama over VT, BSU over Oregon. Two more have borderline: Florida over LSU, Cincy over Oregon State. Both Texas schools have nice wins over Oklahoma State and BYU, respectively, but nothing that stacks up against the other teams.

You're forgetting TCU's win AT (potential ACC champion) Clemson, which becomes the leading of the Capital-Letter Wins should Clemson in fact beat Georgia Tech. That and the fact that it's going to be impossible for the human polls to justify leaping Cincinnati over TCU means that's it's not as cut and dry as you think, Imran.

[Drake Tungsten]

Both Texas schools have nice wins over Oklahoma State

Dude, Okie State was horribly overrated all season. Beating a depleted Oklahoma squad is a hell of a lot more impressive than beating Okie State.

[Imran Siddiqui]

the fact that it's going to be impossible for the human polls to justify leaping Cincinnati over TCU

Not if Cincy beats Pitt. Hell, simply the added points in the computer polls (where I've already pointed out that Cincy is #3) may just catapult them ahead. Sure it would have been far easier if WVU didn't beat Pitt for Cincy to vault over TCU, but it'll still happen. If Texas wins, of course, I expect TCU to be #4 (or #3 if the loser of the SEC Championship game gets pummeled). If Texas loses, the voters aren't going to allow a non-BCS team to play for the national championship (just as a few years back they made sure that Michigan and Ohio State didn't play again for the national championship - by moving #2 Michigan back after the SEC Championship).

[reismark]

If it was any other pairing of teams than Cincinnati & TCU, I'd agree with you. But:

- TCU has done absolutely nothing to deserve being jumped. They haven't just beaten all their competition this year, but for the most part, they've absolutely destroyed it (including two blowout wins over ranked teams in their conference).

- Cincinnati comes from the Big East - you know, the bastard stepchild of the BCS conferences, and a conference whose auto-bid to the BCS was under assault from many individuals (myself included) because of the conference's ineptitude just a few years ago.

- As I always say, Congress is watching this year. Any deliberate move that can be perceived as being discriminatory towards the non-BCS conferences (jumping TCU, excluding Boise State) is going to be frowned upon, and even one mistake may break the camel's back and put the NCAA at major anti-trust risk.

Oh, and you're wrong about Michigan being dropped back from #2 after the SEC Championship. They were actually #3 going into championship week that year. (USC was #2 and ended up choking on the meat missile against UCLA.)

[Imran Siddiqui]

You are waaaaaay too invested in the "underdog" to think rationally about this, IMO. There is no way the voters would screw over a BCS conference for a non-BCS conference especially since the Harris replaces the AP. The Coaches will undoubtably elevate BCS Cincy over non-BCS TCU. And one voter poll and the computers should be enough.

Regardless of Michigan's ranking, they were above the eventual Champion. And were only jumped because the voters didn't want to see a replay of Ohio State v. Michigan, even though Michigan didn't do anything to deserve being jumped.

[Drake Tungsten]

Cincy over TCU.

[Guynemer]

You're forgetting TCU's win AT (potential ACC champion) Clemson, which becomes the leading of the Capital-Letter Wins should Clemson in fact beat Georgia Tech.

You can't be serious.

[Imran Siddiqui]

This, of course, being the same Clemson that just got their clock cleaned by South Carolina, which is something that the voters are going to remember (I have no faith in them remembering much beyond 2-3 weeks).

[Japher]

TCU or Cincy?

Cincy lost a lot of their D and it shows. Still, they have no problem putting up more points than the other team, even if their ex-Heisman hopeful is sidelined. That freshman QB looks great, and I think Cincy can be good for years to come. If Kelley isn't poached that is, still, the program is a lot stronger now, and I think it's a permanent adjustment.

[Drake Tungsten]

As Notre Dame begins yet another search (its fourth this decade) for yet another coach in its never-ending quest to wake up the echoes for longer than a year or two, potential candidates should take a hard look at Charlie Weis' failed tenure.

When they do, they'll see a man who hit South Bend with all the bravado of a man at the height of his profession -- three Super Bowl rings in four years; universal reverence for his role in developing Tom Brady from sixth-round draft pick to future Hall of Famer -- only to leave five years later sufficiently scorned and humbled, literally slinking away into the night after his last game against Stanford.

His potential replacements will undoubtedly attempt to assess what went wrong. On paper, Weis did everything necessary to build an elite program. He returned the Irish to national relevance with consecutive BCS berths to start his tenure. He assembled three straight top-10 recruiting classes, which included more NFL-caliber stars (Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Kyle Rudolph) than that program has seen in nearly two decades. He produced passing offenses that would make his old NFL protégé proud.

Yet, all he had to show for it was the worst season in school history (3-9 in 2007), followed by two .500 seasons and a nation full of critics who've wanted him gone from the day he first professed his schematic wizardry. (Though it's hard to forge too much pity for a guy who may end up taking home $30 million.)

Domers can chalk it up to any number of Weis-specific criticisms: That he never truly made the transition from play-caller to CEO. That his experience with the pros didn't translate to dealing with teenagers. That he never put sufficient emphasis on defense.

They're all valid points, and if Weis were the first coach ever to fall short at Notre Dame, perhaps they'd suffice. But whatever his strengths and weaknesses, Weis' tenure ultimately ended no differently than those of his two immediate predecessors, Bob Davie (1997-2001) and Tyrone Willingham (2002-04). All compiled similar records (winning percentages between .565 and .583) and all failed to make it past five years.

Taken together, most prospective coaches will likely reach the same conclusion many of us already hold: The Notre Dame job is a death trap in waiting.

Once you look past the storied tradition, the majestic campus, the NBC contract and seemingly endless pocketbook, you're left with a school chasing ghosts. You're left with a fan base whose expectations (top-10 rankings, national titles) were forged during another era when the school's independent status still carried cachet and its stringent academic standards were a selling point, not a hindrance. With a few notable exceptions, today's national-title-caliber talent grows up watching specific conferences (the SEC, then Big Ten, etc.), not the NBC game of the week, and they don't necessarily boast high SAT scores, either. Some -- like Clausen, Floyd and Tate -- are bona fide blue-chippers. Others become Tom Lemming All-Americans simply because the Irish recruit them.

Because Notre Dame still fashions itself an elite program, Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick will likely target no shortage of elite candidates. The reality is, most of those big names are much better off where they are. While Urban Meyer has repeatedly stated his reverence for the school, he knows he already has arguably the best job in America. Bob Stoops may well be intrigued by the Irish's overtures, but he knows from experience he can play for national championships from Norman.

Bill Cowher? Tony Dungy? Brian Billick? So far none have given indication of an imminent return to coaching, but even if they do, they'll probably want to go somewhere with less risk of falling on their face. (Not to mention, why would ND go the NFL route again so soon?)

The next coach of Notre Dame will be someone with genuine reason to believe he's taking a step up the coaching ladder, which is why Brian Kelly remains the most viable candidate.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/11/30/notre.dame/index.html#ixzz0YNki52Pj

I think Kelly would be much better off staying at Cincinnati and waiting for a better coaching position to open up, but I agree with Mandel that he's the best realistic candidate for Notre Dame.

[DanS]

Least shocking firing... EVAR.

There is an argument to be made that while Weis was better recruiting wise, his tenure may have been more damaging than Willingham's because of how much ND has to pay Weis out.

Not a chance. The money is nothing.

[DanS]

I hope it's not Kelly. I have nothing against him, but it would mean that ND is trawling the bin of second-tier candidates.

Once you look past the storied tradition, the majestic campus, the NBC contract and seemingly endless pocketbook

Why look past these things? The storied tradition and majestic campus won't get you that far, but the NBC contract and endless pocketbook have value.

[Drake Tungsten]

If Kelly is a second-tier candidate, then I guess Notre Dame is a third-tier school. Kelly is too good a coach to wallow in mediocrity at Notre Dame. I hope he realizes that.