College Football -- Better Than Ever

[Guynemer]

Wait a second. Wouldn't Washington have had, in your words, "the most successful season," having won the Pac-10 championship? Why would SOS or MOV matter?

[Drake Tungsten]

You know that I don't find conference championships to be a very good proxy for the quality of a team's season. Was Oklahoma's season last year really any more impressive than Texas' or Texas Tech's just because they won the Big 12 Championship?

I think all either of us ever said in that hypothetical is that it depends on how each team did in the rest of the games.

QFT

[Imran Siddiqui]

Wait a second. Wouldn't Washington have had, in your words, "the most successful season," having won the Pac-10 championship? Why would SOS or MOV matter?

What? Why does simply the number of wins and losses = "the most successful season"? Or are you one of those people that would rank an undefeated Houston over a 1 loss Florida?

[Guynemer]

You know that I don't find conference championships to be a very good proxy for the quality of a team's season. Was Oklahoma's season last year really any more impressive than Texas' or Texas Tech's just because they won the Big 12 Championship?

I think all either of us ever said in that hypothetical is that it depends on how each team did in the rest of the games.

QFT

1) well, the complete cluster**** of last year's Big 12 was something of an outlier. The fact that the Pac-10, unlike most other conferences, plays a full round robin makes its conference championship somewhat more meaningful.

2) in this hypothetical, each team did the same in the rest of the games: with the same schedule, they won each one of them. By 1 point, 10 points, or 50 points, each win is a win.

[Guynemer]

What? Why does simply the number of wins and losses = "the most successful season"? Or are you one of those people that would rank an undefeated Houston over a 1 loss Florida?

Dunno. No common opponents, no way to truly weigh them against one another. However, I would sure as **** rank them over a 1 loss OkieState, unlike the majority of pollsters.

[Imran Siddiqui]

By 1 point, 10 points, or 50 points, each win is a win.

And the scores of those games and which opponents they were facing in those games determines the quality of those wins. Not every win is of equal weight.

[MRT144]

This is exactly why I think the Patriots were better.

This doesn't make any sense. The Patriots won one head-to-head matchup and the Giants won the other. There's no way to differentiate between the teams unless you look at evidence other than the head-to-head matchups.

Which I do as I outlined above.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Dunno. No common opponents, no way to truly weigh them against one another. However, I would sure as **** rank them over a 1 loss OkieState, unlike the majority of pollsters.

If OkState and Houston won the rest of their games, by the same margin of victory (say 10), I wouldn't. Come back when Houston plays the same quality of opponents as Texas and Oklahoma (not to mention other teams in the Big 12 that outshine Conference USA competition).

[MRT144]

No one's saying the results should be meaningless. We're just saying that they aren't necessarily conclusive, in and of themselves.

But they are meaningful in a respect that shouldn't be secondary to body of work if the body of work is going to be roughly the same for the rest of the season. The only reason I think USC is ranked higher than UW is the future expectations of both teams are different.

[MRT144]

If OkState and Houston won the rest of their games, by the same margin of victory (say 10), I wouldn't. Come back when Houston plays the same quality of opponents as Texas and Oklahoma (not to mention other teams in the Big 12 that outshine Conference USA competition).

Is a 2 loss OkState better than a 0 loss Houston?

[Drake Tungsten]

The Associated Press doesn't offer too much direction to its poll voters, but it spells out one voting guideline pretty clearly: Pay attention to head-to-head results.

That order absolutely killed me as I constructed my poll ballot on Sunday morning. I had to drop USC for losing to Washington, but I couldn't drop the Trojans below Ohio State, because USC won in the Horseshoe a week earlier. I had to drop BYU below Florida State -- which had to be ranked below Miami -- but I couldn't rank the Cougars below Oklahoma, a team BYU beat two weeks earlier.

So I followed the rules and kept all the head-to-head winners above the head-to-head losers, with one exception. I didn't jump Washington over USC, because I didn't rank the Huskies. Sorry, but before they beat the Trojans, they had won one game (against Idaho) since 2007. If they handle Stanford this week, the Huskies probably will crack next week's poll.

But I'm not sure I can rank them above USC if the Trojans begin winning again. The head-to-head rule makes perfect sense, but at some point, I have to rank teams based on their body of work. By keeping the head-to-head winners above the teams they vanquished, I stiffed Cincinnati -- which deserved to move up and didn't -- and Virginia Tech -- which didn't deserve to move down.

Besides, we're headed for a scenario that could turn head-to-head on its head. If Miami beats Virginia Tech this week, the Hurricanes will be 3-0 going into a matchup with 2-1 Oklahoma. If the Sooners win, they'll have beaten Miami, which beat Florida State, which beat BYU. Hugh Falk, the proprietor of Pollspeak.com, suspects this chain of events would force voters to shut down like the logic-operated android women from Star Trek: The Shatner Generation. I'm guessing it'll look more like the money scene from the 1981 classic Scanners. In other words, we're going to need a mop to clean up the mess.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_staples/09/22/week4-1/index.html?eref=sihpT1#ixzz0RruJyFTI

[Guynemer]

Yup. Oklahoma beats Miami, and we're in a rock-paper-scissors situation, and it all goes out the window. Just like I said before.

But we're not yet in that situation, and for all we know Miami will beat Oklahoma and we won't have to worry about that. Yet.


Though, I should say his reasoning about "body of work" is bullocks. Washington's performance last year should have zero effect on this year's standings. Their body of work so far THIS season should be the only body of work that matters.

[Drake Tungsten]

Hopefully Miami will beat VT, Oklahoma will beat Miami and then Nebraska will beat Oklahoma. Things will really be ****ed up then...

[Imran Siddiqui]

Is a 2 loss OkState better than a 0 loss Houston?

That I'm not sure. Depends on who they lose to and who they beat and the way they play in their games.

[Guynemer]

I would have no problem with that. People could be as arbitary as they wanted.