MLB - 2008 Season

[snoopy369]

The jump from Uribe to Cabrera and from (2nd base-Richar et al) to Ramirez once he gets going will be very significant; and from (left field) to Swisher will also be very signficant. The rest of the team hitting-wise will improve - nearly everyone had a below average year, particularly Konerko, but also Thome and Dye - and Owens might not be as statistically sound OPS-wise as you'd like in a leadoff hitter (and he may well bat 9th to start with), but he has only one partial year experience, and having someone with that kind of speed in tends to be very disruptive to other teams (and if he has a bad year, Carlos Quentin can step in and bat 9th, with Swisher or Cabrera leading off).

AJ's 83 OPS+ was an outlier, he's usually in the 90s (the 86 was an injured year, IIRC) and I suppose I'm being unsabremetric in saying that he seems to get those hits when you need them. He definitely has concentration issues (I've read about them in detail), which actually does make some sense for this - he concentrates better when it's a clutch situation, so he does better 'in the clutch'.

[Imran Siddiqui]

My predictions:

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Colorado
NL Wild Card: San Diego

NL WildCard was bit hard to pick from among Phily, Atlanta, and SD, but SD gets to play the Giants a lot (who are going to be much worse than Florida). The Central goes to the Cubbies because I do think Fielder and Braun will regress a bit and the Cubs will improve in offense (with Fukodome and Soto), even if, say, Zambrano goes on the DL for a bit (which I think will happen).

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Cleveland

Fairly straight forward. The Yankees just miss the playoffs as Posada comes back down to Earth, even though the pitching situation will be far more stable and improved. The problem is that Cleveland and Detroit will improve by more, as Hafner returns to his normal production and Miguel Cabrera turns the Tigers into an offensive powerhouse. LAA is winning the West. Forget about Seattle. They overperformed their Pythagorean W-L by 8 games and while Bedard is nice, the Angels added Torii Hunter to the OF and have tons of young talent.

NL Divisional Series:
New York over San Diego
Colorado over Chicago

AL Divisional Series
Detroit over Los Angeles
Cleveland over Boston

NL Championship Series
New York over Colorado

AL Championship Series
Cleveland over Detroit

World Series
Cleveland over New York

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by snoopy369
The jump from Uribe to Cabrera and from (2nd base-Richar et al) to Ramirez once he gets going will be very significant; and from (left field) to Swisher will also be very signficant. The rest of the team hitting-wise will improve - nearly everyone had a below average year, particularly Konerko, but also Thome and Dye - and Owens might not be as statistically sound OPS-wise as you'd like in a leadoff hitter (and he may well bat 9th to start with), but he has only one partial year experience, and having someone with that kind of speed in tends to be very disruptive to other teams (and if he has a bad year, Carlos Quentin can step in and bat 9th, with Swisher or Cabrera leading off).

AJ's 83 OPS+ was an outlier, he's usually in the 90s (the 86 was an injured year, IIRC) and I suppose I'm being unsabremetric in saying that he seems to get those hits when you need them. He definitely has concentration issues (I've read about them in detail), which actually does make some sense for this - he concentrates better when it's a clutch situation, so he does better 'in the clutch'.

Orlando Cabera is NOT the offensive player you think he is. A career OPS+ of 86 (albeit 91 and 95 the last couple years). Undoubtably better than Uribe, but still a below average hitter. Swisher will have a great year, no doubt and will absolutely be a significant upgrade.

However, you are depending on a massive change in fortunes for the rest of the offensive squad. What you see as everyone having a below average year, most observers see a team getting OLD and thus performance declining. After all, Thome is going to be 37, so injuries may be more and more common for him (and last year was NOT below average for him... just missed games because he was injured). Dye is going to be 34 and will probably continue to be a slightly above average hitter (his career OPS+ is 110 after all). Konerko should get better.

All that adds up to a slightly better offensive performance, but not nearly enough to make up a 24 game difference (and I do think whoever wins the Central will win 96+ games again this year).

Oh, as for Pierzynski, in his "injured" year, he had more at bats than the next year, where he had 90 OPS+. And when he is in the 90s in the last few years, it's been the low 90s. Doesn't sound all that amazing for an 8th hitter for me.

[Stuie]

My predictables:

NL East: PHILADELPHIA!!! 101-61 It is Spring, and there are 162 games left to play. It is a time to hope, a time to dream, a time to picture Santana and Pedro on the DL by mid-May, a time to wonder where Leo Mazzone is currently rock-rock-rocking while the Braves suck, and a time to believe in your team. Until the second round of the playoffs at least.
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Padres
Wild Thing: Dodgers

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
Wild Card: The goddamn Yankees


NL Divisional Series:
Philly over LAD
Cubs over San Diego

AL Divisional Series
Detroit over the goddamn Yankees
Boston over LAA

NL Championship Series
Cubs over Phillies - yes, you saw it here!

AL Championship Series
Boston over Detroit

World Series
Boston over Cubs

[snoopy369]

Fortunately there's little chance of both BOS and NYY making the playoffs; neither team is improved, and both at least slightly got worse this year. Add an extremely competitive central which ALSO has a couple of teams to beat on (which means less damage from top teams beating eachother up excessively) and a west that has two quality teams in it, and improvements from the perennial losers in the East (TB, and maybe even BAL) and you have a one-playoff team AL East.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think Boston may end up being just as good as last year (at best). A full year of Ellsbury (and Crisp can't be that bad again) and Lugo is NOT that bad. But Schilling is hurt pretty bad and can Beckett stay healthy and pitch at that level for a full season again? And can Lester/Gabbard/Buchholz be as good as advertised?

New York may be in more trouble though. Hughes will be there for a full year and Kennedy will start, but how good is Kennedy, really? And Posada can't do that again (A-Rod can, though).

I think people forget just how good Cleveland was last year. They'll win ~95 games if not more again, IMO, even if Carmona declines a bit (he probably will).

[OzzyKP]

Ok, my picks (based on little more than what I've read in this thread and hopeless optimism):

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Cleveland

NL East: New York
NL Central: Chicago
NL West: Colorado
NL Wild Card: Arizona (don't let me down, Guy)

Boston over Cleveland
Detroit over Angels

New York over Arizona
Chicago over Colorado

Detroit over Boston

New York over Chicago


Detroit over New York (and half my friends hate me for a week)

[Ming]

AL East: New York
AL Central: Cleveland
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Boston

NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Chicago
NL West: Colorado
NL Wild Card: New York

Cleveland over Boston
New York over Angels

Atlanta over Colorado
Chicago over New York

Cleveland over New York

Chicago over Atlanta

And as you would expect, I figure the Cubs will win it all

[OzzyKP]

I think we have similar pick strategies.

[OzzyKP]

Speaking of which, Sports Illustrated is calling a Detroit-Chicago World Series.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/specials/spring_training/2008/previews/

So is CBSSports.com:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline/main10742428.shtml

Both also call the win for Detroit. I sure hope so!

[Imran Siddiqui]

You don't want to depend on Sports Illustrated for baseball predictions, trust me!

[-Jrabbit]

My thoughtless and ill-considered picks:

AL East: New York
AL Central: Detroit
AL West: LA Angels
AL Wild Card: Seattle

NL East: NY Mets
NL Central: Chicago
NL West: Colorado
NL Wild Card: LA Dodgers

AL
Detroit over Seattle
Angels over Yankees
NL
Mets over Rockies
Cubs over Dodgers

LCS
Angels over Detroit
Cubs over Mets

Yes, 100 years is enough.
Cubs over Angels.

[Guynemer]

I dunno; Escobar likely out for the season, and Lackey out for at least a month, I'm not too confident in the Angels.

[-Jrabbit]

Good point, but I hate the Yankees and Bosox, and everyone else is picking Cleveland or Detroit...

Jon Garland shall lead them!!!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Great start to the North American part of the MLB season . Zimmerman with a solo HR, in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs, to win the game over the Braves.