NFL Offseason Thread

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
My take:
1. Oakland - JaMarcus Russell You know Big Al is sick and tired of having no QB.
2. Calvin Johnson - Logic dictates Detroit trade down with Tampa. Either way, CJ goes here
3. Cleveland - Owners want Brady Quinn; coaches want Adrian Peterson. This should be interesting.
4. Tampa Bay (or Detroit) - Gaines Adams
5. Arizona - Joe Thomas

Right there they've proven they know very little about Detroit.

[SlowwHand]

I agree with you more than this writer.

What if you're Detroit at #4 after the deal with the Bucs, and Cleveland takes Peterson. Detroit sitting in position where they can take Quinn.

[-Jrabbit]

Originally posted by Lord Avalon
Yeah, you can't be too attached to the pick worth chart. Variables are need and quality of players in the draft. A trade may be worthwhile even if the points don't add up.

But it's probably too much to expect Millen to understand that.

It's actually out of Millen's hands. The bottom line is this: The top draft picks cost so much that it creates salary cap issues for the teams that have them. That's the main reason it's unlikely Detroit will swing a trade. No one wants to spend and extra $10-15MM for an unproven player.

That's why the Bears turned down the Washington deal.

From Chicago sportswriter Don Pierson, writing for msnbc.com:

Mario Williams and Reggie Bush, last year's 1-2 picks, each got contracts worth up to $62 million with incentives, including signing bonuses of more than $26 million.

There was a $25 million difference between the fifth pick and the top two, begging the question, "Is Mario Williams really worth that much more than A.J. Hawk?"

Having the top pick is supposed to be a reward of sorts, or at least a consolation prize, for being the worst team in the league. Instead, it has become a double whammy, insult on top of injury. It has become punishment for being so bad.

IMO, the sacred "trade value chart" deperately needs a rethinking. The cost liability of those top picks, coupled with the near-certainty that one or two of them won't pan out, makes them pretty unattractive.

So while Matt Millen is most assuredly an idiot, in this case it's not really his fault. Well, except for the whole "win some damned games" thing...

[OzzyKP]

The coaches don't want Quinn. (Millen might.. but I dunno) The coaches really like Kitna. Martz can really work with any QB. If we get the 4 spot we'll take Thomas (again if we're smart, which won't happen).

I doubt anyone is interested in Peterson. True our running game sucks (with Jones hurt last season) but I don't think it is our biggest need.

[-Jrabbit]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
I agree with you more than this writer.

What if you're Detroit at #4 after the deal with the Bucs, and Cleveland takes Peterson. Detroit sitting in position where they can take Quinn.

If that happened, I'd try to trade down again. Kitna actually threw for 4,000 yds last year. You could look it up. With Quinn, Joe Thomas and Gaines Adams all available outside the top 3, someone should want to move up for a guy they're in love with.

Detroit needs to stockpile for team infrastructure. They have no quality depth, and it really shows once the inevitable injuries happen. For a team like the Lions, a mid-to-late #1 and a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders is the way to go.

[Lord Avalon]

The problem with trading down is that it requires someone to trade up. And who's going to want to do that if they have to shell out #2 money?

I wonder why there isn't a rookie salary cap.

[SlowwHand]

Recent history won't influence Lions' pick


By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.


Assuming QB JaMarcus Russell is the top overall pick by the Raiders, the most dramatic 15 minutes of the 2007 draft will occur when Detroit goes on the clock with pick No. 2.

The most recent information I'm getting is the Lions have basically boiled it down to two options. Their top priority is to trade out of the second pick, acquire additional selections and select the best available prospect (ideally Clemson DE Gaines Adams) with their new pick later in the first round.

If they can't strike a reasonable deal, Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson becomes the choice. He is the top overall prospect on their value board, the Lions are prepared to deal with the criticism that likely would come with selecting Johnson, since they have drafted three first-round wide receivers in the past four drafts. It's a tough pill to swallow, but GM Matt Millen would be making the right choice.

[Guynemer]

I'm sorry, but there is no way any WR is good enough for a top 5-10 pick. No matter how good he is, no WR is gonna touch the ball more than 6-10 times a game, and usually less than that. Sure, he may open up the field for other guys, but that doesn't make him much more valuable.

Linemen, QBs, RBs, defense, absolutely. WR? Come the **** on.

[-Jrabbit]

Sorry, guy, but that argument is idiotic. If I ran an NFL team, I would pray for someone you to be drafting ahead of me.

It's a team game. You need all the pieces, and excellence at the offensive skill positions is makes a huge difference.

WR is a skill position, and Calvin Johnson's measureables are freakishly strong -- once-in-a-decade strong. He has speed, agility, great hands, height, strength... I guarantee you that virtually every team in the league would HAPPILY draft him at #2, and most of them at #1. And they'd be right.

[Guynemer]

The same things were said about Charles Rogers...

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Guynemer
The same things were said about Charles Rogers...

I doubt it. No one seriously considered Rogers to be the #1 talent in the draft.

[Lord Avalon]

Johnson is a couple inches taller, ~15lbs heavier, and yet a little faster than Rogers was.

[OzzyKP]

The problem is not that Johnson isn't worth a #2 pick, or that Rogers wasn't. The problem is that so much is broken about the Lions right now that a high skill WR is doomed to failure on the team. If the Lions drafted a young Jerry Rice instead of Charles Rogers he wouldn't be a shadow of the Jerry Rice we all know.

Calvin Johnson may be the best player in the draft and the best WR in the last 10 years, but he isn't right for Detroit.

Which is why Detroit should absolutely trade him to a team who would really benefit from him.

[OzzyKP]

One can only hope Millen will be as wise as this article suggests:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/don_banks/04/25/trades/index.html

Draft deals cooking
Teams maneuvering to take WR Johnson, LB Willis

With the NFL Draft kicking off in fewer than 72 hours, here's what we're hearing around the league:

• While everyone has focused on No. 4 Tampa Bay as the most likely trading partner for No. 2 Detroit in the Calvin Johnson Sweepstakes, it's the No. 8 Falcons who might truly be in the driver's seat. Sources say Falcons owner Arthur Blank has pretty much ordered Atlanta general manager Rich McKay to do everything he can to put the team into position to land Johnson at No. 2.

Blank wants Johnson for a couple of reasons. First, Johnson played at Georgia Tech and would help sell tickets to disillusioned Falcons fans who have endured two non-playoff seasons after Atlanta went to the NFC title game in 2004. Second, the Falcons still have their long-standing need of a reliable big-play receiver for quarterback to play pitch and catch with.

With seven picks in the first four rounds (including two second-rounders and three in the fourth), Atlanta definitely has the ammo to make the deal with Detroit. The Falcons could send the Lions their picks at 8, 39 and 44 for the No. 2 spot, and still have a third-rounder and three fourth-rounders to fill other needs.

The Lions are known to covet middle linebacker Patrick Willis of Mississippi and would be perfectly situated at No. 8 to select him. Picking up at least two extra second-rounders in the process would meet Matt Millen's goal of turning the No. 2 slot into a first-day package of picks. Detroit is likely to draft a quarterback with its own second-round pick at No. 34. Stanford's Trent Edwards remains slightly favored over Michigan State's Drew Stanton.

• At No. 4 and not wanting to give up the majority of their four picks in the draft's first 68 slots, Tampa Bay is not likely to move up in an attempt to compete for Johnson. The Bucs need defensive help and appear to be more likely to take Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams if they stay put. Wisconsin offensive tackle Joe Thomas is another option at No. 4, but so too is trying to move down a few spots with the intention of taking Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, who some in the organization are likening to a young Warren Sapp.

[-Jrabbit]

Ozzy, I don't dispute that. I absolutely agree that Detroit would maximize its progress by trading this pick, assuming a fair deal can be had.

But Guynemer's contention that WR is never worthy of a top5/top10 pick is ludicrous on the face of it. There have been plenty of high-profile busts in the draft, skill positions and linemen, offense and defense. And there have been plenty of undrafted free agents who made the Pro Bowl. It's a crapshoot.

That said, Millen's not the guy I'd want rolling the dice for me.