MLB - 2007 Season

[Imran Siddiqui]

Proctor's arm is going to fall off, I swear.

Torre has for YEARS abused his bullpen arms (he's the anti-Dusty Baker, who abuses his starters' arms). He's gotten mostly away with it, because Rivera has been generally able to handle the load, and because the starters have been pretty good.

[Arrian]

You can tell when Proctor's not right: when the radar readings are 91mph, he's tired. Of the last three or four times I've seen him, he's been tired. When he's rested, his fastball sits 94-96. The Red Sox will hit him either way, mind you, but I want him rested so he's effective against other teams

In fairness to Torre, it turns out that Wang tore a fingernail ( ) in the 3rd or 4th inning. That apparently effected his control, and was enough for Torre to lift him after the 6th. If he wasn't complaining, I'd have left him in anyway, but at least Joe had a reason.

This is an admittedly fine line. I'd rather have Torre than Baker! Baker would wreck Wang and Hughes. I'd rather Torre burn out some fungible middle relievers than the starters. But sometimes he takes the quick hook too far. Given the state of the bullpen right now, somebody needs to take one for the team (I'm looking at YOU, Colter Bean!).

-Arrian

[MichaeltheGreat]

Trying sooooo hard not to gloat...

Maybe if Wang hadn't grown a little extra on his fingernail to work the balls, he wouldn't have that problem.

Seriously, I think the bullpen is in for a lot of pain, and not much Torre can do about it, or be blamed for. Manny's not really being Manny yet, but Pavano's being Pavano. How often can you expect that starting rotation (whoever is in it from day to day) to go deep into games and give the relievers some rest?

You'd have to be insane to push Hughes hard. Pavano's spot is a big gaping hole. Mussina's pushing 40, has had a W-L percentage lower than the team average for several years, and hasn't been able to deliver 200 innings a season since '03.

Wang? I think it's a sign of the sad state of MFY pitching that a guy with a year and a half major leage experience is referred to as the "ace." Yeah, Wang had a very good won-loss record last year, and good ERA, but his OBA was average at best, and a mediocre strikeout to walk ratio. He might be capable of having many more years like that, but if you're gambling on that for your top of the rotation guy, you're pretty fragile.

Pettite's '06 numbers were a lot worse than his career average, and he hasn't been able to deliver innings so far.

Igawa pitched one super game so far, but has been worse than mediocre across his other starts.

So who is going to deliver consistent innings and let those relievers rest their arms? I don't see it happening very often this year.

[Fistandantilus]

Carl Pavano's blog is a must read.

[Arrian]

MtG,

Obviously my take on those issues isn't as gloomy as yours. I am confident that Wang can do well despite the low ks/bb rate, though probably not quite as well as last year. Pettitte has been quite good overall, though obviously not in his last start. Moose was very, very good last year (3.5 ERA). Even a dropoff (expected) would mean he's still solid. Igawa is clearly marginal - good start, bad start, good start, bad, bad, good, bad... etc. **** Pavano. Hughes is gonna be good. The question is whether or not he'll be good this year. We'll see. I think it's a worthwhile gamble to try it. I doubt they'll let him throw more than 100 pitches in any given start, so the concern about length is valid.

It's patchwork right now, sure, and will result in more strain on the 'pen. The thing is, the Yankee pen can take some strain... just not the type of strain it's been under so far (starters not getting out of the 5th).

By the time it's all over, the Yankees' pitching will look better than this, of that I'm sure. The question is whether or not that will be enough. And that, in turn, depends on whether the Sox pitching holds up. So far it's been quite good - especially the (well rested) bullpen. But it's a long season.

-Arrian

[MichaeltheGreat]

The next ten games - 7 at home, all against two average or worse teams, should be telling. In a normal year, you'd expect the MFY to take 7 or 8 of these games. We'll see.

If Wang is off last year's numbers, Moose drops off, (the big issue is innings, especially with Igawa and Hughes/Pavano/whoever), Pettite is probably good, albeit with a fair number of games in which he doesn't go deep, Igawa is God doesn't even know what from day to day, and Pavano's a big black hole, you've got some problems winning the division, let alone going beyond that. I think y'all need a bit more than that to meet Georgie's (unrealistic) expectations.

Hughes will be good, barring bad luck or him getting rushed, but it's a big gamble, physically and mentally, to rush him in and expect him to fill a long-term hole. He has to be managed for both pitch count and total innings, and he's not going to get pushed anywhere near 200 innings unless the whole front office goes ape**** crazy.

You used to have Rivera to fall back on, but he's looking like only a shadow of his old self. There's only so many games where you can expect the offense to bludgeon teams into submission.

Lester coming back healthy should be a nice boost on our end, and the Sox pen has been surpisingly solid - before the season, a Boston globe poll showed the most commonly picked assessment by fans was "Papelbon and pray." It's been a lot better than that.

[Arrian]

You used to have Rivera to fall back on, but he's looking like only a shadow of his old self.

He's looked this bad before, and bounced back to be as good as ever. One year that won't be so, and perhaps this is the one, but I'm not about to believe it until I see it, you know?

Okajima (sp?) has been huge for you guys. If he keeps that up, yikes. Lester should be an improvement over Taverez, it's true.

We'll see. I, for one, am just happy to be able to watch Phil Hughes pitch, instead of some broken down has-been (Brown, Kevin or Johnson, Randy).

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

When it rains it pours from the Yanks. Hughes had a no hitter through 7, but then suffers from a leg injury and has to come out of the game. We'll see if it's serious.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Hughes had some good stuff, but Texas was also looking pretty awful, too.

Hopefully nothing serious and he's ok.

Meanwhile, Papelblown got touched for the first time this year, but his pitches were really dead. For once in a blue moon, he just didn't have it.

[Arrian]

Well that was awful. Word is it "popped" and is a "significant" injury. Reports on how long he'll be out vary (4-6 weeks some say, 8 weeks say others). I'll wait to see what Will Carroll writes.

****ing hell. Yes, Texas can't hit their way out of a paper bag right now, but he was absolutely dominating them in their (hitter-friendly) ballpark. It was a thing of beauty... right up until that 0-2 pitch with one out in the 7th.

Crushing. It sucks all the fun out of the win (and corresponding Red Sox loss complete with blown save by Papelbon). I was so excited to see him pitch every fifth day. Blech.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Grade II strain - 6 weeks.

-Arrian

[Ninot]

Yankee Pitching. Hope the Sox widen that lead.

Oh, and has anyone else noticed that Matt Holiday is batting .395?

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Arrian
Grade II strain - 6 weeks.

-Arrian

Could be a lot worse. Makes me wonder if he didn't hurt himself, or contribute to the problem, by putting a little extra into his pitches to try to make it at the major league level. (not a slam on the MFY this time, but question about very young pitchers in general and pre-season conditioning for guys without significant minor league experience)

[Arrian]

He specifically admitted that he overstrode (is that a word?) trying to make a perfect pitch.

He's 20 and was pitching a no-hitter. I can understand that. As for the question as to whether or not calling him up "early" led to this... I'm in the camp that says no. He could've gotten hurt in AAA too (though perhaps not this specific scenario). He's ready to pitch in MLB. Two other Yankee pitchers - Wang and Mussina - did something similar (both "tweaked" their hammys on their landing legs - the same as Hughes, just not as bad - grade I instead of grade II). It can happen to anyone - apparently especially if it's a Yankee pitcher (much scrutiny right now on the Yankee conditioning program).

I can only hope this just serves as a lesson to him to "stay within himself" in the future, even if he is pitching a no-hitter.

By the way, the whole "grade II strain" thing remains a guess. Nothing definitive will be known until the MRI, and that won't happen until they get back to NY. It could be a grade III, though that's not especially likely since Hughes claimed he wasn't in pain afterwards.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Heh, this just in: Yankees fire strength and conditioning coach.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out, moron!

-Arrian

huzzah for a scapegoat!