Fantasy Hockey - Coming up on the Halfway Point

[Asher]

Originally posted by notyoueither
This is the same guy who thinks Moreau isn't a significant injury for the Oilers because, after all, he's just a 3rd liner and is interchangable with any number of other players.

This is true.

1 point in 7 games, and a -4 in those 7 games also. Clearly a "significant injury" for the Oil. Not to mention his grit. Did you see that fight he was in? Man, he was vicious almost. Then he threw a punch and injured himself so bad he's out the season. Clearly a pillar of the team.

Though, he did have 6 giveaways in 7 games which is par for the course for Edmonton excellence. Ales Hemsky is the king there with 60 giveaways in 34 games.

[Flubber]

Pierre Mcquire of TSN was making his playoff predictions for the 6 Canadian teams. They were as follows

Canadians-- IN


Ottawa-- IN

Toronto-- OUT

Vancouver-- IN

Calgary-- Waffled-- said if they don't find ways to score goals in Iginla's absence they would be out -- well duh!!

Edmonton-- waffled only slightly less . .. said they are not good enough on D right now and he expects they will need to pick up a quality d-man to get in

[Flubber]

The East


The 5th-7th place teams have opned up a 4 point gap on the pack in the playoff hunt. Once again, Toronto clings to that last playoff spot with a 1 point lead on 3 teams that have 4, 3 and 1 games in hand respectively. Boston, in particular, won't go away, even though Toronto beat them head to head lately

[Flubber]

Big night in the west.

Minnesota struggling on the road faces the supposedly leaderless Flames. The Flames are bringing up a kid to probably fight the monsterous Beauragard. Huge playoff implications but the happiness for all the teams chasing is that they BOTH cannot get two points

[Flubber]

Phoenix

They were probably sad to see Edmonton win but they face a crunch time as they face Dallas, Detroit and San Jose in their next 3. The good news for Phoenix is that Dallas has been struggling a bit with injuries. Apparently Telqvist gets the start for the Coyotes tonight.

San Jose may be a mixed blessing. Phoenix has beaten them twice recently, including an 8-0 embarrasment. I really expect the Sharks to be very riled up for that one.

I still don't see the Coyoyes ultimately earning a playoff spot but six straight wins is pretty powerful contrary evidence. Then again, I believe the Leafs have had stretches of 6 straight wins as well

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher

This is true.

1 point in 7 games, and a -4 in those 7 games also. Clearly a "significant injury" for the Oil. Not to mention his grit. Did you see that fight he was in? Man, he was vicious almost. Then he threw a punch and injured himself so bad he's out the season. Clearly a pillar of the team.

Though, he did have 6 giveaways in 7 games which is par for the course for Edmonton excellence. Ales Hemsky is the king there with 60 giveaways in 34 games.

The Oilers started 5 and 2 with Moreau and then lost 6 of 7 after he got hurt. Although not all of that can be due to him, his meaning to the team goes beyond stats. Same thing happened last year when he was out, the team struggled a lot.

But speaking of stats, your boy does follow in being highly selective in the use of them. He's moved the Canucks up a few spots to 13th. Why so low? He's 'skeptical of the Canucks' current seven-game winning streak considering that just three have occurred in regulation time'...

It's hilarious. He uses +/- heavily, and discounts winning. Sounds familiar.

[Flubber]

On plus minus

While I do think Asher can overstate its importance, I don't think you should discount it entirely. It is useful in comparing players when used over long stretches but its utility for a single gfame or even a small number is severely limited.We all know of instances where a player is minus 2 because his goalie muffed two soft goals and his forwards missed some brilliant set-ups. In the long run I find these things tend to average out

[notyoueither]

Yes. It can be helpful over a long period, but you still need to be careful with it. Comparing +/- of a Devils or Flames dman with one from the Islanders or Kings is pretty pointless unless you put it in context. This guy is plus 98 playing in front of a first ballot hall of fame goalie on a defence first team, and this other guy is -10 on a team that thinks defence is something the government should pay for. Which one is better? Even with context it is hard to tell.

[Asher]

Originally posted by notyoueither
The Oilers started 5 and 2 with Moreau and then lost 6 of 7 after he got hurt. Although not all of that can be due to him, his meaning to the team goes beyond stats. Same thing happened last year when he was out, the team struggled a lot.

But speaking of stats, your boy does follow in being highly selective in the use of them. He's moved the Canucks up a few spots to 13th. Why so low? He's 'skeptical of the Canucks' current seven-game winning streak considering that just three have occurred in regulation time'...

It's hilarious. He uses +/- heavily, and discounts winning. Sounds familiar.

First of all, I find it hilarious that you quote TSN.ca as a source of "what the hockey world thinks" when it serves you. Then when I throw you a funny example of basic statistics (I rarely agree with Cullen, FWIW), and you discount it on its face.

I don't know or care why you discount +/-. If you understand the fundamental concept behind the stat, it can tell you a lot about a team and its players.

Edmonton and Vancouver have both have more goals scored against them than they've scored. Why should they be highly ranked in league power?

A little winning streak means nothing. Should Phoenix really be at the top of the league rankings after a 6-game winning streak?

I recommend you do not rail on +/- as you do, because it really tends to show some fundamental misunderstandings of the sport.

Also, I've shared your quote about Ethan Moreau to friends of mine (Detroit fanboys, Toronto fanboys, and Montreal fanboys) and everyone found it equally hilarious. Ethan Moreau is nothing more than an expendable third liner. And your reasoning is hilarious. Chris Simon was with Calgary when we went to game 7 of the stanley cup final -- therefore he's far more than an expandable 3rd winger. Right? And +/- means nothing! All that matters is points! But not when Moreau's points suck...

[Asher]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Yes. It can be helpful over a long period, but you still need to be careful with it. Comparing +/- of a Devils or Flames dman with one from the Islanders or Kings is pretty pointless unless you put it in context. This guy is plus 98 playing in front of a first ballot hall of fame goalie on a defence first team, and this other guy is -10 on a team that thinks defence is something the government should pay for. Which one is better? Even with context it is hard to tell.

+/- isn't just about defense, though. This is what I think you do not understand.

+/- is combined offense/defense. It is, at its core, what you do on the ice at even strength.

If you're on a team that thinks defense is something the government should pay for (eg, Edmonton), then you should be doing something offensively. You can still have a high +/- if you suck defensively, provided you don't suck offensively.

Comprende?

[Asher]

Here's a hint as to why Calgary is rated where they are compared to Edmonton and Vancouver in that list. Notice the trending.

[Asher]

This is brutal, I have 4 skaters with games tonight...but 3 of them are out injured.

DTD injured, so I can't even dump one of them on the IR.

Meanwhile joncha has 8 skaters playing tonight.

[Asher]

And that's also awesome.

The Flames score 20 seconds in, but it's waved off because....Minnesota apparently touched the puck earlier in the play on a delayed penalty and the whistle never blew. Therefore, because Minnesota took a hooking penalty, the Flames goal doesn't stand.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher

First of all, I find it hilarious that you quote TSN.ca as a source of "what the hockey world thinks" when it serves you. Then when I throw you a funny example of basic statistics (I rarely agree with Cullen, FWIW), and you discount it on its face.

No, I'm laughing at this guy's results.

He also has the Canucks lower than the Rangers. The Canucks lead their division, while the Rangers are about to be out of the playoffs if the season ended after 41 games (Boston needs 1 win in 2 games, and don't look now).

I don't know or care why you discount +/-. If you understand the fundamental concept behind the stat, it can tell you a lot about a team and its players.

OK. Who is a better player? Don't cheat, just use the stats.

GP  G A  Pt +/- Team
51  7 19 26  8  216 GF, 193 GA
58 13 33 46 22  263 GF, 253 GA

Edmonton and Vancouver have both have more goals scored against them than they've scored. Why should they be highly ranked in league power?

A little winning streak means nothing. Should Phoenix really be at the top of the league rankings after a 6-game winning streak?

Of course. In some universes the results don't count. Those are happy places with pink skies.

I recommend you do not rail on +/- as you do, because it really tends to show some fundamental misunderstandings of the sport.

Uh huh.

Also, I've shared your quote about Ethan Moreau to friends of mine (Detroit fanboys, Toronto fanboys, and Montreal fanboys) and everyone found it equally hilarious. Ethan Moreau is nothing more than an expendable third liner. And your reasoning is hilarious. Chris Simon was with Calgary when we went to game 7 of the stanley cup final -- therefore he's far more than an expandable 3rd winger. Right? And +/- means nothing! All that matters is points! But not when Moreau's points suck...

Yelle would be a better comparison for a Flames player, but by all means keep laughing.

Shouldn't you be studying up on waiver rules and the salary cap or something?

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Asher
Here's a hint as to why Calgary is rated where they are compared to Edmonton and Vancouver in that list. Notice the trending.

That might be more compelling analysis if it was actually reflected in the TSN power rankings. For example, Dallas is 10th in the league in goal differential (GD), but ranked 18th by TSN this week, falling five spots seemingly because of losing three of four - I guess streaks do mean something for some teams, just not others. Colorado is 9th in GD, but ranks 14th on TSN's list, two spots below Carolina which is 17th in GD. For that matter, Calgary's 6th spot in GD is only good for one place higher than Carolina in the TSN rankings. The Rangers rank 20th in GD, but 10th in the power rankings. Etc....

In short, TSN's power rankings are pretty much as ****ty as they've even been, and I wouldn't be inclined to care much how someone defended them.

There's also this little walk down memory lane:

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&postid=4288548&highlight=power+rankings#post4288548