MLB Offseason Thread

[Imran Siddiqui]

Apparently the Dodgers are about to sign Juan Pierre (5 years, $45 mil). Not sure how that works with Furcal (already a great leadoff hitter) there, but we'll see. I'm thinking Pierre becomes the #2 hitter.

Mets have signed Moises Alou (guess Milledge isn't ready for full time play yet?) and declined the option on Glavine (is he heading back to Atlanta?)

[Arrian]

Soriano in CF... interesting. If he could actually play the position (say, league average or even a tick below), his hitting becomes even more valueable... perhaps even getting close to worth what the Cubs are paying him. The contract will still be an albatross when he's in his late 30s.

-Arrian

[rah]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
And the scouting report says he has speed.

After watching him play all this year, he doesn't strike me as having speed. Maybe it's just the way he runs. He's not slow.

[Arrian]

Oh FFS!

Justin Morneau won the AL MVP. What a joke. He was the third most valueable on his own team, let alone the league.

Jeter, Mauer, Santana, Guillen and a bunch of other guys (Sizemore, Hafner, Dye, Manny, Ortiz) should've beaten out Morneau.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Just as I surmised, Arrian. Didn't I tell you that Morneau was going to be Jeter's biggest competition a few months ago?

Though Jeter probably should have won it.

[Arrian]

There are probably 10 guys I'd have put ahead of Morneau.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Doesn't matter, I'll still claim credit for seeing him be up there (even if I thought Jeter would win) .

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Just as I surmised, Arrian. Didn't I tell you that Morneau was going to be Jeter's biggest competition a few months ago?

You probably did, though I didn't need you to tell me that. It was clear from all the articles (writen, of course, by the same group that has MVP votes) slobbering all over his RBIs. I was hoping they wouldn't be *quite* this stupid.

Jeter
Mauer
Santana
Guillen
Sizemore
Hafner
Manny
Dye
Ortiz
Tejada
Wells
Vlad

ALL better candidates.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Tejada? Wells? Now you are just being silly and overexaggerating .

[Arrian]

Wells, a CF, did this: .303 .357 .542
Tejada, a SS, did this: .330 .379 .498
Morneau, a 1B, did this: .321 .375 .559

Morneau was the best hitter of the three, but again he plays 1B and the other two play premier defensive positions at which offense is hard to come by.

Wells also stole 17 bases and was caught 4 times (good, if unspectacular). Tejada stole 6 and was caught twice (didn't hurt). Morneau stole three and was caught three times.

Even if you take those guys off the list, there are 10 left. Even if you drop some of the other more marginal choices, there are at least 7 or 8 that are (I think) clearly superior to Morneau.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Morneau did have a higher OPS+, but ALSO had a higher Win Shares number, which counts steals ratios and defense.

Actually, if we look at The Hardball Times' Win Shares numbers, Morneau only comes behind Jeter, Mauer, Ortiz and Ramirez. Though he's tied with Ibanez.

[Arrian]

Only. Whether it's four guys or ten, what is clear is that Morneau was a bad choice for MVP.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

To be fair, though, he was closer to Jeter (tops in the AL in Win Shares) than Howard was to Pujols (tops in the NL in WS, even though he only played in a 143 Gs). And, in front of Howard in WS was Pujols, Beltran, Berkman, Cabrera, and Wright in that order.

So perhaps both were poor selections (but I'm not sure you can say Howard was ok while Morneau was horrible.. at least in the Win Shares department) .

[Arrian]

I'm not so enamoured of Win Shares, Imran. I think it's interesting, but I also look at VORP (which puts Morneau 13th in the league).

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Having looked at the actual ballots, I have to say that rank idiocy is displayed all over the place - not just wrt to Morneau.

Frank Thomas finished 4th.
Mauer didn't even make it onto some ballots.
Carlos Guillen was almost ignored.

These people have no idea what they're doing.

I understand, by the way, that it's always been this way and will likely always be this way. I'm actually not that worked up about it: but it gives me an opportunity to talk baseball in November.

-Arrian