MLB Offseason Thread

[Imran Siddiqui]

Frank Thomas finished 4th.

I'm not sure what is wrong with this. Did you want him higher or lower?

After all, MVP doesn't mean Best Player to most people. Looking at the rest of Oakland's offense and how close the AL West race was in the end, I can easily see why people would vote him so highly.

[Arrian]

Lower. He was the 3rd best DH in the league, behind Hafner and Ortiz (and Thome too? Or was Thome a 1B?). Frank Thomas was valueable, sure, but he wasn't anywhere near "most valueable."

Most people are wrong. I think it should be best player - or rather best overall season by a player.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

If I was doing the balloting, I think I'd put Thomas at 5th. I don't consider "Most Valuable" to be best. There should be a seperate award for Best Player.

[Arrian]

Travis Hafner dh .308/.439/.659, though he did miss about a month
David Ortiz dh .287/.413/.636
Frank Thomas dh .270/.381/.545

Which one of these is not like the other? Which one of these kids is doin' his own thing?

Yet Thomas not only beats out Hafner, he beats out several position players who outhit him? Are you ****ing kidding me?

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Carlos Guillen - SS - .320/.400/.519
Jermaine Dye - RF - .315/.385/.622
Vlad the Impaler - RF - .329/.382/.552

Not to mention Mauer (who placed 6th!?!) and Santana.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yet Thomas not only beats out Hafner, he beats out several position players who outhit him? Are you ****ing kidding me?

Nope, it's MOST VALUABLE player award, not a Best Player award. I'm thinking Cleveland would have finished far out of the playoff picture even without him (perhaps more than 18 games out, but at that point, who cares?).

[Arrian]

If that was true, the David Ortiz finished 3rd because.... why? His team finished 3rd.

Ortiz finished 3rd because, even though his team finished way out of it in 3rd, he was still excellent and also is popular. I'd have had him down a bit on the ballot, but probably top 5, but either way, the man had a great year - he's very valueable. His value is not dimished because Boston fell apart.

Yet Hafner gets no love because... because nobody cares about Cleveland and he's not as exciting as Ortiz. But he's the more valueable player (in pure on-field value, anyway, maybe he's not as marketable). He finishes 8th.

Guillen? Best player on the Tigers. SS. Out-hit Thomas (and Jeter, for that matter, though playing time + baserunning gives the slight edge to DJ IMO). 10th place? Bah. He should be top 5, no doubt.

Santana? Best pitcher in baseball. 7th. I'm still struggling with how to value pitchers vs. position players, but I think he should have been higher.

I don't give two ****s about the fact that Cleveland would've lost with or without Travis Hafner: that has little to nothing to do with the man's performance.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Frank Thomas doesn't even belong in the top 10.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

I don't give two ****s about the fact that Cleveland would've lost with or without Travis Hafner: that has little to nothing to do with the man's performance.

It does have something to do with how 'valuable' he actually was.

If that was true, the David Ortiz finished 3rd because.... why? His team finished 3rd.

And Manny Ramirez had a better year anyway . I think Ramirez deserves some consideration because Boston was in the race and fell out in the last few months. But his value is downgraded (somewhat) due to the fact that they finished about 9 games out of the WC.

They New England writers vote for Ortiz because they all have stiffies for him.

[Imran Siddiqui]

My Most Valuable Balloting:

1) Jeter (responsible for the most wins on the best team in the league)
2) Mauer
3) Guillen
4) Santana
5) Thomas
6) Thome
7) Ramirez
8) Dye
9) Guerrero
10) Ortiz
(around there, and the last 5 can be interchangeable somewhat)

Though, interestingly enough, A-Rod had a higher OPS+ than Jeter did. Jeter beats A-Rod down in Win Shares, however.

[Arrian]

It does have something to do with how 'valuable' he actually was.

Not really. Cleveland lost because the rest of the team wasn't very good. Hafner was great. It was in no way his fault they lost.

I too would have Manny on my list:

Jeter (or Mauer) - I flip flop on this one
Mauer (or Jeter)
Santana (I still don't really know what to do with a great pitcher in an MVP debate)
Guillen
Sizemore
Ortiz
Hafner
Manny
Dye
Tejada

The last few could be switched around, and of course I could be talked into swapping out Tejada for someone else. Not Frank Thomas, though. I'm not even sure he's top 15.

edit: I looked at this again and had to move Papi up. I swapped him with Manny.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Not really. Cleveland lost because the rest of the team wasn't very good. Hafner was great. It was in no way his fault they lost.

As the saying goes, I'm sure they didn't need him to finish in last place . Though Cleveland didn't finish last, the point is what value does it have to finish 18 games out instead of, say, 25 games out? Doesn't matter that his team was horrible, without him they still would have finished poorly.

The interesting thing is if you take Frank Thomas' Win Shares Above the Baseline (above an average player playing the same amount of time the compared player did) and convert it into wins (divide by 3) you get 4.66 wins above baseline. Oakland got into the playoffs by 4 games. Without Thomas they miss it.

Interesting thing is he is one of only two position players who that can be said for in the American League. Mauer, who has 20 WSAB (same as Jeter & Ortiz, btw), calculates out to 6.66 wins. Minnesota finished ahead of 3rd place Chicago (who had the most wins by a non-playoff team in the AL this year) by 6 wins.

I did some one of only two POSITION players, however, because Santana has 19 WSAB, which translates into 6.33 wins above baseline.

Interestingly, Guillen has the same WSAB that Thomas has.

I mean really, the goal is about winning a World Series. And the way to get there is to reach the playoffs. Your value is higher, IMO, than would originally be percieved if your production was directly responsible for your team making or missing the playoffs.

[Arrian]

As the saying goes, I'm sure they didn't need him to finish in last place

Which is both true and meaningless to a discussion of a player's value.

So the only valid MVP candidates are guys on good but flawed teams (to avoid the "they coulda won w/o him" bs)? COME ON!

Oakland was a very flawed team, particularly offensively. Frank Thomas was valueable to them, and yeah w/o him they probably don't make it. On that basis, how many of their pitchers should place 5th or higher in the MVP balloting?

Anyway, this is a tired argument that neither of us is going to "win." I see MVP as most valueable in general - the best. You see MVP as... something else involving silly goobledigook

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Which is both true and meaningless to a discussion of a player's value.

No, not really.

So the only valid MVP candidates are guys on good but flawed teams

Not always. The best player on the best team (or another high win playoff squad) is always a valid MVP Candidate, but players who are responsible for their team's playoff challenge (far better if they do make it in) have a higher value due to the chance to compete for the great prize at the end.

On that basis, how many of their pitchers should place 5th or higher in the MVP balloting?

None... Zito was the best Oak pitcher in WSAB with 12, with means 4 wins, which would result in a tie with LAA. That would result in a 1 game playoff rather than simply losing outright, which is significant. Thoguh that does argue for Zito perhaps being around the bottom of the Top 10.

[Arrian]

I think you're relying too heavily on Win Shares. I don't think any of the advanced metrics are perfect, and thus like to look several different ones, as well as the defensive stats (and baserunning, but that's much less important).

Thomas does well in WS, but poorly in VORP. Jeter does well in both. Mauer gets extra credit from me b/c even though he trails Jeter in VORP, he plays the most physically demanding position - and plays it well, whereas Jeter merely plays a passable SS.

-Arrian