Have Netanyahu and Trump finally killed poly?

[I AM MOBIUS]

?? You can't falsify something... after it's already happened... and is true...



This happened. Is happening. Multiple US citizens have been deported. SCOTUS granted DHS the right to racially profile in service of immigration enforcement. The 4th amendment is being circumvented by administrative warrants to round up anyone in the wrong apartment block. Tens of thousands have been placed into newly built immigrant detention centers. The percentage of detainees with criminal records or charges has dropped dramatically. Several dozen people (that we know of so far) have died in the camps.



This happened. 2 US citizens killed by DHS during enforcement operations, 1 by an off duty ICE thug. Hundreds of US citizens arrested by ICE for protesting.



This happened. Trans folk can't serve in the military. Their passports are in jeopardy. States are enacting laws banning them from having driver's licenses or using bathrooms. Discussion of the existence of LGBT people and issues is being stamped out at universities.



This is happening. The administration has killed thousands of people in multiple military operations over the course of several months with nary a word form Congress about whether that's OK. FBI agents who worked on the special counsel investigation into Trump stealing nuclear secrets and inciting an insurrection were fired. Anyone convicted of a crime who committed that crime on behalf of the president is getting pardoned. Anyone who donates money to one of the president's vanity projects gets a pardon. There are scandals every single day about this Trump lackey or that Trump lackey engaged in shady, corrupt deals that don't seem to warrant any investigation



I have consistently and repeatedly argued that the MAGA movement is fascist, not that Trump or his administration or our country are, and have even previously called you out for misconstruing my stance.

Agree 100%. I've seen you make these points over and over, as have I on some of them.

It's like you literally have to beat him over the head, repeatedly. And it still doesn't sink in.

Just watch. In a couple of months he'll come back and post again, as if nothing ever happened.

[Geronimo]

Well, my model already successfully predicted, at the very least, (1) mass detention and deportation of undesirables regardless of immigration or citizenship status, (2) killing of US citizens by DHS, (3) dismantling of rights and safety for LGBT folk, (4) concentration of executive power and enshrining of presidential immunity... like, how much more do you want from me?

?? You can't falsify something... after it's already happened... and is true...

...and no matter what happened you would claim it was all true. My point was that since you will insist that any change of any magnitude toward of any of your predictions would constitute success of your model that your model's predictions were useless.

This happened. Is happening. Multiple US citizens have been deported. SCOTUS granted DHS the right to racially profile in service of immigration enforcement. The 4th amendment is being circumvented by administrative warrants to round up anyone in the wrong apartment block. Tens of thousands have been placed into newly built immigrant detention centers. The percentage of detainees with criminal records or charges has dropped dramatically. Several dozen people (that we know of so far) have died in the camps.

Actually you predicted a vast campaign to remove the brown people. How large has this demographic change been? where has the demographic profile changed? Other genocides had obvious demographic effects. How large is the demographic impact of this one? I always imagined that Trump would massively ramp up deportations. you predicted that he would do it to remove the brown people I predicted he would do it to get insecure people to love him for it. If your evidence that this is meant to get rid of brown people is that federal courts threw out lower 9th circuit rulings that ICE:

• could not stop or detain people based solely on race or ethnicity
• could not use appearance, language, or workplace as a proxy for immigration status
• must have individualized reasonable suspicion that someone was violating immigration law

This still doesn't tell us anything about the campaign's results or what fraction of deportees are legally resident. It could also just be that the 9th circuit ruling was making the ICE stops too easy to challenge. We need to know what fraction of deportees resided in the US legally. If the overwhelming majority of deportees were residing here illegally then that explanation makes as much sense as your get rid of the brown people explanation. I strongly believe that far *far* more people oppose immigration because they think it threatens their employment prospects than oppose it because they are racists that don't like brown people.

This happened. 2 US citizens killed by DHS during enforcement operations, 1 by an off duty ICE thug. Hundreds of US citizens arrested by ICE for protesting.

There was a truly enormous organized civil disobedience campaign against ICE. I'm astonished the numbers aren't even higher. Since when have protests at law enforcement scenes not been extremely dangerous in this country, let alone protests intended to interfere with the law enforcement?

This happened. Trans folk can't serve in the military. Their passports are in jeopardy. States are enacting laws banning them from having driver's licenses or using bathrooms. Discussion of the existence of LGBT people and issues is being stamped out at universities.

Oh so *now* you care about discussions getting stamped out at universities? So what then? do rights and safety of LGBT folk require either total non recognition of the existence of sex or that any such recognition impose self-description as the criteria for doing so? Do non-LGBT people get to have these rights?

This is happening. The administration has killed thousands of people in multiple military operations over the course of several months with nary a word form Congress about whether that's OK. FBI agents who worked on the special counsel investigation into Trump stealing nuclear secrets and inciting an insurrection were fired. Anyone convicted of a crime who committed that crime on behalf of the president is getting pardoned. Anyone who donates money to one of the president's vanity projects gets a pardon. There are scandals every single day about this Trump lackey or that Trump lackey engaged in shady, corrupt deals that don't seem to warrant any investigation

I do truly hate that. How is it different from his predecessors? Am I supposed to think that a corrupt presidency is a newsflash? You predicted the president would be corrupt and that's impressive?

I have consistently and repeatedly argued that the MAGA movement is fascist, not that Trump or his administration or our country are, and have even previously called you out for misconstruing my stance.

The MAGA movement is not fascist it's Trump idolizing. What did fascist political parties have in common with each other? well for one thing they were all *political parties*. Maga *is not a political party*. So when you say, "no I'm not calling Trump a fascist, or his administration fascist I'm saying that MAGA is fascist" that's especially rich.

Really though, it's tough to stay motivated to pursue these discussions because it feels like an exercise in defending Trump from your hyperbole and I just don't think he deserves it. I *am* motivated to some degree by fears that the Dems and ideas like yours will lead to defeat in Nov 2026 and Nov 2028 which would be catastrophic but that's an entirely different thread and maybe those elections will be more about mobilizing the base anyway in which case your hyperbole could actually help out. so whatever I guess.

[Lorizael]

...and no matter what happened you would claim it was all true. My point was that since you will insist that any change of any magnitude toward of any of your predictions would constitute success of your model that your model's predictions were useless.

Oh yeah? What's your model for me?

If your evidence that this is meant to get rid of brown people is that federal courts threw out lower 9th circuit rulings...

...that was one piece of evidence. There's also all the other stuff I said.

I strongly believe that far *far* more people oppose immigration because they think it threatens their employment prospects than oppose it because they are racists that don't like brown people.

Who gives a ****? Mass deportation campaigns don't suddenly become OK if the people who support the campaign are worried about their job instead of racist. And they really don't become moral if the deportation is very clearly targeting people of color.

There was a truly enormous organized civil disobedience campaign against ICE. I'm astonished the numbers aren't even higher. Since when have protests at law enforcement scenes not been extremely dangerous in this country, let alone protests intended to interfere with the law enforcement?

I didn't predict DHS would kill US citizens because I was taking long odds on a bet; I predicted it because it was going to be the obvious and inevitable result of sending thousands of masked, armed thugs into US cities to round up undesirables.

Oh so *now* you care about discussions getting stamped out at universities?

I work at a university and I am more or less, and have basically always been, a free speech absolutist. What made you think otherwise? What's your model of me again? Kinda sounds like you're just picturing a random partisan lefty.

So what then? do rights and safety of LGBT folk require either total non recognition of the existence of sex or that any such recognition impose self-description as the criteria for doing so? Do non-LGBT people get to have these rights?

What the **** does this have to do with anything? We ****ing get to talk about this stuff. We don't ****ing decide beforehand if it's the right kind of thing to talk about. Oh wait, are you about to bring up a hypothetical from the other side to expose me as hypocrite? What about what about what about IQ what about what about what about creationism shut the **** up, yes, we get to talk about it.

I do truly hate that. How is it different from his predecessors? Am I supposed to think that a corrupt presidency is a newsflash? You predicted the president would be corrupt and that's impressive?

If you don't think what's happening now is at the very least quantitatively worse than what's happened before, then you don't "hate" it. You just like the moral high ground that comes from being a centrist who think both sides are bad, harumph harumph.

The MAGA movement is not fascist it's Trump idolizing. What did fascist political parties have in common with each other? well for one thing they were all *political parties*. Maga *is not a political party*. So when you say, "no I'm not calling Trump a fascist, or his administration fascist I'm saying that MAGA is fascist" that's especially rich.

lol. You're right, MAGA, not being a political party, is not a fascist political party. It is, however, a movement infused with fascist ideas, which is what I said. Again and again, you keep making the mistake of thinking that me saying "MAGA is a fascist movement" means I believe "things will literally play out exactly as they did in 1930s Europe."

your hyperbole

You have never, not once, found fault with any factual claim I've made.

[I AM MOBIUS]

So I guess even Geronimo is not too stubborn to accept defeat!

What a relief! 😅

[Geronimo]

So I guess even Geronimo is not too stubborn to accept defeat!

What a relief! 😅

the only "defeat" I recognize in this context is when Trump won a second term.

[N35t0r]

the only "defeat" I recognize in this context is when Trump won a second term.

Just imagine what might have happened if people hadn't minimized Trump's danger (but he said he didn't know what project 2025 is!) while at the same time picking the tiniest nit on Harris' (she said she wouldn't change a thing from Biden's term!, never mind all the other things she said).

[Geronimo]

Just imagine what might have happened if people hadn't minimized Trump's danger (but he said he didn't know what project 2025 is!) while at the same time picking the tiniest nit on Harris' (she said she wouldn't change a thing from Biden's term!, never mind all the other things she said).

bullcrap. I still maintain that the hyperbole and gross mischaracterizations helped lead to his victory and undermined harris. His electoral victory was not because nobody was recognizing that his foreign policy was crap but only realized it when he started the second term. Hell, the moment he started trashing ukraine as a candidate I held that against him. You're probably instead remembering when I predicted that he wouldn't actually trash Ukraine with his foreign policy because he didn't do so in his first term. Where's the slightest evidence that the people who actually voted for Trump care about any of that even now?

[N35t0r]

bullcrap. I still maintain that the hyperbole and gross mischaracterizations helped lead to his victory and undermined harris. His electoral victory was not because nobody was recognizing that his foreign policy was crap but only realized it when he started the second term. Hell, the moment he started trashing ukraine as a candidate I held that against him. You're probably instead remembering when I predicted that he wouldn't actually trash Ukraine with his foreign policy because he didn't do so in his first term. Where's the slightest evidence that the people who actually voted for Trump care about any of that even now?

I don't understand your post, I wasn't calling you on any of that. Unfortunately, there's a lot more voters in the US.

As for your question, hardcore maga was only a fraction of Trump voters. A lot more people voted for him, including those unhappy with Biden's support for Israel after Gaza. You think they're happy about Trump's?

[Dauphin]

As for your question, hardcore maga was only a fraction of Trump voters. A lot more people voted for him, including those unhappy with Biden's support for Israel after Gaza. You think they're happy about Trump's?

I know otherwise Democrat extended family members who voted for Trump because of Biden's 'lack' of support for Israel. And other otherwise Republican extended family members vote for Biden because they thought Trump was too right wing.

[Heresson]

I AM MOBIUS' avatar brings back bad memories from Alpha Centauri. That lady was a major nuissance.