Have Netanyahu and Trump finally killed poly?

[Aeson]

jeez. even when he blows up Iranians that's "brown people" now too?

"Brown people" is a mocking reference to the racist misconceptions, not actually descriptive of the people being targeted by those racist misconceptions.

They think Jesus was a blue eyed white person. They fear anyone from across an imaginary line to the point they'll cheer as genocide is committed.

[Lorizael]

Well, my model already successfully predicted, at the very least, (1) mass detention and deportation of undesirables regardless of immigration or citizenship status, (2) killing of US citizens by DHS, (3) dismantling of rights and safety for LGBT folk, (4) concentration of executive power and enshrining of presidential immunity... like, how much more do you want from me?

[giblets]

Expect to see Iranian public squares filled with your mutilated war dead hung up for all to see, dripping with gore, the pictures disseminated en masse through social media for the whole world to see, including the poor families of those dead combatants.

Wouldn't that be against their religion?

[Geronimo]

Well, my model already successfully predicted, at the very least, (1) mass detention and deportation of undesirables regardless of immigration or citizenship status, (2) killing of US citizens by DHS, (3) dismantling of rights and safety for LGBT folk, (4) concentration of executive power and enshrining of presidential immunity... like, how much more do you want from me?

How would any of these predictions be falsifiable? would any change of any magnitude on any of these "predictions" be regarded as validation so long as the change was in the direction you oppose?

What do I want from you? Nothing really. I never claimed that your specific predictions would not come to be true. Instead, I objected to you labeling the Trump administration "fascist". I regard that as an insult to the victims of any actual fascist regime. If Trump manages to overlap in overall policy or at least overall respect for human rights with at least the least fascist historically fascist regime, then I suppose I'll drop that objection and probably even if he gets close enough to not constitute the outlier in a complete list of historically fascist regimes. Of course, it would be easy to find people here who would say that the US has always been a fascist regime on any complete historical list, but I laugh at the idea that FDR was a fascist or that Trump is more fascist than was FDR.

I still don't think your model is useful whatsoever. more useful might just be observing trends. I predict that if Iran embarrasses Trump enough then he will stop starting wars of choice or will engage in a trivial to "win" Grenada style mini campaign to cleanse his palate and then give them up. If he somehow makes his Iran war look like a "win" (maybe the Iranian government is overthrown by domestic forces) then he will probably keep at starting new wars of choice until his term ends or he is embarrassed by a loss. still not a useful model (how do we measure his embarrassment?) but at least as useful as the model you've been offering has been. We could also take a look at academic discussion regarding the usefulness of the term "fascist" historically and in contemporary politics.

[I AM MOBIUS]

Geronimo, you're clearly not stupid.

BUT... you seem to have some kind of unexplainable brain malfunction that, in the kindest way possible, makes you very much not intelligent either...

I have never met anyone so single-mindedly, self-owningly obtuse as you are!

And that is really NOT a compliment! 😅

[Geronimo]

Geronimo, you're clearly not stupid.

BUT... you seem to have some kind of unexplainable brain malfunction that, in the kindest way possible, makes you very much not intelligent either...

I have never met anyone so single-mindedly, self-owningly obtuse as you are!

And that is really NOT a compliment! 😅

Then chatting here with you is probably a deserved fate and I mean that in the kindest way possible

[Provost Harrison]

When you think they've already dismantled USAID, you wouldn't have to be too much of a conspiracy theorist to wonder if they did it on purpose...?

They didn't, of course - they're too ****ing stupid to have an actual ****ing plan.

Reaction. Which their cultists try and dress up as benevolent strategy. But everyone sees it for what it is.

[Provost Harrison]

Wouldn't that be against their religion?

I doubt it for non-muslims. Although I suspect they'd make it short for the photo opportunity and dispose of the bodies after that. After all, no one wants that infection risk hanging around at those temperatures.

[Provost Harrison]

Geronimo, you're clearly not stupid.

BUT... you seem to have some kind of unexplainable brain malfunction that, in the kindest way possible, makes you very much not intelligent either...

I have never met anyone so single-mindedly, self-owningly obtuse as you are!

And that is really NOT a compliment! 😅

Every single prediction I have made he has invariably described as "hyperbolic" or "fantasy" only to become reality. Such as my comparisons to 1930s Germany. There are localisations in place but it is virtually the same, only any checks-and-balances in the United States have proven to be less effective than those in Weimar Germany. He doesn't have to remove many parts of the establishment immediately because he can just plain ignore them, pretend they're not there and rule by fiat. Nothing seems to stop him, his executive power is just too immense.

And as you know for *decades* I have had issues with the US government which never could quite put its cold war propaganda to bed once and for all. Tricked them into thinking anything collective, any kind of state intervention was communism. And here we are, the social security net demolished for the interests of the few and the President and his oligarch friends on a world tour of gore. Except, they thought that their gunboat tour would go unchecked but the consequences of this latest "slip up" may unseat the whole basis of US hegemony. He sues for peace with Iran and agrees to their conditions - US has to leave the Gulf. He attempts a land invasion, too costly, probably won't be successful. Back to my previous point. He runs away with his tail between his legs then he has betrayed his allies in the Gulf and they will have to sue for peace with Iran which will result in their eviction from those bases. If those states don't just kick them out anyway from demonstrating what a paper tiger they were.

And paper tiger is the key word here. Because they are now exposed for the world to see. So arrogant that they refused to listen to Zelenskyy about the latest developments in warfare. Seems convenient that none of their capital ships are anywhere near Iran...and relegated to port due to a "laundry incident". They brought a sword to a gunfight and the world now sees this. Their guarantees are meaningless. It's why even their closest, long-suffering allies in Europe are now starting to go "Yeah...no" because it is all bluster.

There is always a defining mistake that defines the end of an empire. And I think it is clear that this is the US's. A bit different to the Suez Crisis, but the knock on effects will be similar. End of the petrodollar. And with that, the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

[Geronimo]

I will add that even if Trump lucks out and Iran unexpectedly undergoes a regime change that sues for peace on Trump's terms it will only delay the end of the petrodollar. The real problem is *repeatedly* kicking allies in the teeth. They had good incentives to ride it out at first in hopes of reestablishing mutually profitable arrangements post Trump but it's getting harder to see that happening every time he lands another swift kick against US allies and this vast open-ended war of choice against Iran with no plan to keep the straits of Hormuz open constitutes one hell of a vicious swift kick. The problem isn't that he revealed the US as a paper tiger though. it's that he made the US dangerous to rely upon in a committed alliance, militarily or economically.

[Provost Harrison]

I will add that even if Trump lucks out and Iran unexpectedly undergoes a regime change that sues for peace on Trump's terms it will only delay the end of the petrodollar. The real problem is *repeatedly* kicking allies in the teeth. They had good incentives to ride it out at first in hopes of reestablishing mutually profitable arrangements post Trump but it's getting harder to see that happening every time he lands another swift kick against US allies and this vast open-ended war of choice against Iran with no plan to keep the straits of Hormuz open constitutes one hell of a vicious swift kick. The problem isn't that he revealed the US as a paper tiger though. it's that he made the US dangerous to rely upon in a committed alliance, militarily or economically.

Can't disagree with that. Your decline is assured at this point, we all see it. The issue is, how soft a landing will you get? I'd say the UK was pretty lucky in this respect and we still remained a wealthy, modern economy at our core. But the US? Too much ill-feeling. I mean you should here opinion on the US in two of your (former) closest allies - Canada and the UK. Constantly pilloried. Canada was first out of the trap with that but my God do we we seem to be living rent-free in Donnie's head now. Hoopefully we are his dying thought, that the British detest him, before the hypoxia makes his thoughts too scrambled.

But Iran has been galvanised behind their leader. For now. But I think it will be after these events that Iran's regime may crumble.

[Geronimo]

I fear Trump has long since adapted to experiencing scrambled thoughts but maybe the upside to that will be a few more moments to ruminate on his failures when that final hypoxia sets in.

[Lorizael]

How would any of these predictions be falsifiable? would any change of any magnitude on any of these "predictions" be regarded as validation so long as the change was in the direction you oppose?

?? You can't falsify something... after it's already happened... and is true...

(1) mass detention and deportation of undesirables regardless of immigration or citizenship status

This happened. Is happening. Multiple US citizens have been deported. SCOTUS granted DHS the right to racially profile in service of immigration enforcement. The 4th amendment is being circumvented by administrative warrants to round up anyone in the wrong apartment block. Tens of thousands have been placed into newly built immigrant detention centers. The percentage of detainees with criminal records or charges has dropped dramatically. Several dozen people (that we know of so far) have died in the camps.

(2) killing of US citizens by DHS

This happened. 2 US citizens killed by DHS during enforcement operations, 1 by an off duty ICE thug. Hundreds of US citizens arrested by ICE for protesting.

(3) dismantling of rights and safety for LGBT folk

This happened. Trans folk can't serve in the military. Their passports are in jeopardy. States are enacting laws banning them from having driver's licenses or using bathrooms. Discussion of the existence of LGBT people and issues is being stamped out at universities.

(4) concentration of executive power and enshrining of presidential immunity...

This is happening. The administration has killed thousands of people in multiple military operations over the course of several months with nary a word form Congress about whether that's OK. FBI agents who worked on the special counsel investigation into Trump stealing nuclear secrets and inciting an insurrection were fired. Anyone convicted of a crime who committed that crime on behalf of the president is getting pardoned. Anyone who donates money to one of the president's vanity projects gets a pardon. There are scandals every single day about this Trump lackey or that Trump lackey engaged in shady, corrupt deals that don't seem to warrant any investigation

Instead, I objected to you labeling the Trump administration "fascist".

I have consistently and repeatedly argued that the MAGA movement is fascist, not that Trump or his administration or our country are, and have even previously called you out for misconstruing my stance.

Another thing I'll note, which is related, is that the "it's not fascism" crowd keeps performing a subtle switch in the subject being discussed. I've repeatedly said that MAGA is a fascist movement. It's made up of people who espouse fascist beliefs, people one might call fascists. That doesn't mean the US has a fascist government, as if fascism is something you switch to in Civ. Like, I can call Chegitz--our resident communist--a communist, and no one here will be confused and think that means I think Chegitz is part of a communist government. Even if he were elected to office, the government wouldn't suddenly be communist.

There is a powerful movement with fascist beliefs in the US, and members of this movement occupy high levels of government where they are currently influencing the president to do things that accord with their fascist beliefs. This is bad. Very bad. It doesn't mean we necessarily have to be invaded and bombed into submission, or even that democratic means can't be employed to get us back on a moderately safe path, but it's still very, very bad.

[Lorizael]

MAGA doesn't strike me as at all religious if only because their idol Trump is clearly not a man of faith.

Yes Trump very obviously isn't Christian, religious, faithful, etc., but lol if you think MAGA's not.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mihszcj2ic25

[Bereta_Eder]

trump is an un educated provincial pig that stands in awe of such educated people like obama. it represents everything that is low and has destroyed the US, for ever.