"Trump is following a playbook written for him by Christian White Nationalists."

[Geronimo]

What? You don't appreciate strawman replies to your posts? Shocker!

Also, Harris got over six million fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. Trump got 3 million more votes than he did in 2020 (still fewer than Biden did in 2020). The greatest differences between both elections were among men, particularly non-college-educated, Latino and black men. And you claim that "it's possible" that she gained more votes for being a woman than she lost (either to not voting or to trump)? Just based on a hypothetical scenario?

yes. because ever since Trump's original nomination and since Brexit and especially since Trump's first election as president I don't trust any assumptions about voters made from that crude level of data. The electorate seems to be a black box. None of your observations require that people voting against Harris for being female or for her race would outnumber those who would vote for her for those reasons. At best they suggest the relative numbers would be expected to be less favorable in that regard in 2024 than in 2020. The outcome is compatible with anything from a large net liability to a large net benefit depending on literally almost any number of unseen additional factors which appear to be prone to shifting wildly from one election to the next.

[Geronimo]

What's literally keeping me awake now is simply trying to find reasonable explanations for these grossly stupid own goals, especially in foreign policy and trade. Own goals that don't seem to have any relation to the rhetoric that's lazily getting dumped on the public along with them. The level of cynicism of the rhetoric would definitely make Putin proud.

Putin had decades to slowly lock down the Russian apathy and political feebleness. The crown shouldn't rest so easily on Trump. I think for the lies and harm to foreign policy alone Trump should be impeached again but obviously that might never even start. What can be done now to limit Trump's success in using force as a last resort? What is already thoroughly compromised? Will US soldiers fire on peaceful allies? Will they fire on congress? On civilians? It seems inconceivable.

[Dauphin]

What's literally keeping me awake now is simply trying to find reasonable explanations for these grossly stupid own goals, especially in foreign policy and trade. Own goals that don't seem to have any relation to the rhetoric that's lazily getting dumped on the public along with them. The level of cynicism of the rhetoric would definitely make Putin proud.
.

In the absence of anything more concrete, I would say:

Narcissism, envy, hubris and indifference.

Narcissism - he wants adoration, he wants to promise greatness and be loved for it. Talking tough on trade deficits, and bringing back manufacturing, etc is to gain love of the people.
Envy - he sees authoritarian leaders and equates the subservience of the populations as a state he wants to achieve to feed his narcissism.
Hubris - he thinks he is right and won't readily listen to why what he is actually doing won't achieve the outcomes he promises.
Indifference - he doesn't actually care if what he promises for the people actually comes to pass, he is revelling in the promise and the adoration it brings. Actually doing it is too much effort.

Case in point, Ukraine. I can see it playing like this:
Trump thinks: Only I can save Ukraine. I will be remembered and loved for bringing peace
Envy: He wants to be seen as a strong leader who can force his peace. He wants Zelensky to kiss the ring to feed his narcissism
Hubris: He believes he is the chosen one to bring peace, even though he is clearly not helping bring it about it he carries on with his policies because he can't comprehend he may be wrong - everyone else is wrong.
Indifference - he doesn't actually care what happens to Ukraine. He is revelling in the adoration of his rhetoric

Trade wars
Trump thinks: Only I can save American jobs. I will be remembered for making American industry great again.
Envy: He wants to be seen as a strong leader who can force his will on the economics of trade. He wants foreign countries to kiss the ring to feed his narcissism
Hubris; He believes he is the chosen one to make American industry great, even though he is clearly not helping bring it about it he carries with his policies because he can't comprehend he may be wrong - everyone else is wrong.
Indifference - He doesn't actually care if his policies benefit the American people. He is revelling in the adoration of his rhetoric.

It's not a perfect fit, but a possible playbook for why Trump does what he does. There are other factors at play - and his entourage may have ulterior motives that manipulate these factors to get what they want.

[Dauphin]

Tell Trump he will be loved for [X] and remembered as a great leader, and find a way to make a great TV announcement that will be watched by everyone / crowd eating out of his hand, and he will probably sign off on it. After the announcement he will not care if it happens or not, but will keep talking about it coming and being great.

[Geronimo]

I would give your explanation a thumbs up for helping me make sense of this but refrained only because it is so depressing. If a model like you suggest is at work in this man's head, how could he be manipulated away from the abyssal depths of his own careless stupidity?

[Geronimo]

I think I may redouble my efforts to convert MAGA republicans. I wonder if they have any idea as to how deeply he's harming so many for no pay off at all? it's important that people look at what the man is doing. I note that Fox News is increasingly devoting discussion to crap filler like trans participation in women's sport, do its consumers who rely on its coverage of events have any clue how badly Trump is dropping the ball? Is Fox afraid to show them?

If Trump's base could be disillusioned would the relative drying up of adoration give him pause?

[Geronimo]

If anything like the sad description of Trump's motives that Dauphin described is accurate then I also have to wonder is Trump actually another Biden in the sense that he thinks he is in charge but is actually being casually manipulated into everything because he's far too shallow to realize it? If perhaps he's being played like a fiddle who might the fiddler be? Surely someone close to maintain their agenda? I wouldn't think it would easily be Putin himself unless through a close loyal agent. I never figured out who was likely exerting the most influence over Biden. Maybe Trump's constellation of toadies works to coordinate the manipulation among themselves?

[Dauphin]

Not a single fiddler, a discordant orchestra of fiddlers. I would estimate multiple agendas are being pushed by different groups and individuals, some complement and some compete. Hence the erratic and inconsistent approaches.

[Geronimo]

Not a single fiddler, a discordant orchestra of fiddlers. I would estimate multiple agendas are being pushed by different groups and individuals, some complement and some compete. Hence the erratic and inconsistent approaches.

Silver lining to that model of manipulation is that we might have a highly perturbable system rather than an evil mastermind executing a deep chess match of Machiavellian ascension of power. Time to find some resonances and start pushing...

[Broken_Erika]

They're Fabricating Criminal Prosecutions Now

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