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Last edited by My Wife Hates CIV; July 5, 2022, 09:29. -
Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post
So here is what an asset bubble really looks like. This is a historical P/E chart for the last 20 years. We had a real asset bubble in 2008. The slight uptick you see in 2020 and 2021 is due to earnings falling off due to Covid. So what does this tell us? It tells us that earnings were supporting asset price through the Trump years. As we know, asset prices rose significantly during that time frame and clearly earnings were also. This is a sign of a dynamic growing economy. It is not a sign of an asset bubble.
We can also infer from the way the graph is declining that asset prices are falling faster than earnings (if indeed earnings are falling...we cannot say for sure with this graph). This is a leading sign for confidence erosion. Confidence, obviously, has a lot to do with future economic performance. Interestingly, there is no sign of any lack of confidence while Trump was President (even the dip when Covid came out is not as statistically significant as what we see happening now). This confidence, supported by strong earnings, resulted in record employment, record minority employment, and record domestic investment. Clearly, the opposite is happening now.
You have called Trump's economic team buffoons...I can only hope that Biden can find some baffoons as well. The really smart people he has are a disaster.
Trump had an image that was carefully crafted by the democratic party and which he did a lot to bolster. The facts (as you like to say) tell a bit of a different story on many fronts.
Don't get me wrong however...this is not a ringing endorsement of Trump. Regardless of how good or how bad he was in reality, the image that was crafted of him does not make him a good choice to be the next President."I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003Comment
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P/E is for a corporate asset bubble.
What we have now is a equity (and property?) asset bubble. P/E has little dependence on equities.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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for example
Robert Shiller, a Yale professor, compares 10-year historic earnings to S&P prices. His CAPE Ratio at 38.34 is up 13.6% from early February 2021. As the chart shows, the current CAPE Ratio is the second highest on record. Prior spikes did not end well.
from the last
BTW, some of the people I know who voted for Biden (or would have it if was competitive) but normally vote Republican or Libertarian are likely to vote Libertarian in 2024.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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Invalid poll.Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
"Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ BraindeadComment
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Plato in 2008:
They're isn't a bubble about to explode, the price history of tulips is nowhere near that of the 1630sIndifference is BlissComment
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Looking t America from across the Pacific, America looks like her best days are behind her. Her politics are so dysfunctional and partisan that Trump is just a blip on the radar of incoming troubles for our American friends.
America appears to have enormous troubles. Financial, economic and societal woes abound. The slums are growing, the infrastructure decaying. The homeless population increasing. The poor grow poorer and larger in number.
When I was a kid America was seen as a good place and now it sucks to be America.Comment
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I can use this as a segue to say that there is a positive sign from New Hampshire, De Santis was coming over Trump.Originally posted by SlowwHand View Post
JMLast edited by Jon Miller; June 23, 2022, 11:15.Jon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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LOL! I could not have been more in the middle of that one than I was! That one was very easy to see for someone on the inside, but there was no stopping it. VERY glad that those days are behind us!Originally posted by N35t0r View Post
Even if we were to have an asset bubble now (which is questionable...and further so is a CAPE analysis due to the limitations of some of its input figures (as Jon probably well knows)), it is nothing compared to what we saw in 2008...and thank goodness for that!"I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003Comment
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Kid was leaving his job to focus on being a day trader.
The signs were there, just like they were in 1999. I think it also is unstoppable.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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One does have to wonder if things would have gone differently if he knew how to speak "politician".Originally posted by My Wife Hates CIV View Post
"I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003Comment
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