Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

Well, nothing desastrous yet, as I think stuff will not work that way in the end - but every time there's a new "peace plan" in da works between the WH and the Kremlin it seems to start with the idea of handing Vlad what he wants (and can't get on the battlefield).

[Thoth]

"Peace Plans" between Russia and Trumpistan seem a bit pointless when Trumpistan isn't a party to the conflict and the Ukraine who are definitely a party to the conflict have been left out. I love a good farce but this has a long way to go if it wants to aspire to the level of bad farce let alone good farce.

[Ming]

Trump has figured out that Russia won't do what he says, so it's time to bully Ukraine into bending over and taking it.

[BeBMan]

Trump advisor advising:

https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20251126-trump-backs-off-ukraine-deadline-as-witkoff-coaching-report-emerges

[The Mad Monk]

You must take two solemn steps, bow to the East, take two more steps, bow to the West, take three steps, kneel with head bowed and raise both hands in supplication and obeisance, fingers intertwined in the formal manner. Hold this position until you are recognized.

[BeBMan]

Very cold in Belgium these days. Everything's turned into permafrost

[Bereta_Eder]

such an icy metaphor

[dannubis]

Yeah, very much like the "guarantees" Merz and Von der Leyen gave, it will melt when things heat up...

[Provost Harrison]

Well I feel assured now Trump has given his "pwomise". What a surreal situation.

[BeBMan]

The recent "negotiations/diplomacy" are a terrible theatre. Russia is not interested in peace, unless it equals Ukranian capitulation. Ukraine is not interested when peace equals Ukranian capitulation, because they know what happens in occupied territories. Both Russia and Europe don't want to be too unnice to Trump (at least not openly) while keeping their core interests intact which don't align with Trump's view. Trump's views change back and forth depending who talked to him in the last 30 minutes or so, but his core interests seem getting a peace prize, and extort money and/or resources from Europe and Ukraine as part of any "peace". Also his admin is sending different signals all the time, either because he changed his mind, and/or because there are competing views towards Ukraine/Europe and Russia in his camp.

For now it looks like he backs Ukraine/Europe again. Question is for how long (this time).

[Bereta_Eder]

Russia is now completely war tuned. that means that even if it collapses it will continue to go whatever hardship.
they say we lost 27 million in ww2 and won. we only lost 1 million now. we have space for more....


I guess living peacefully and chasing girls is not glorious enough.

ukraine will not ever capitulate losing territory through war (who would?)

[Bereta_Eder]

however a peace is totally possibe (when both sides would want/be forced to do it) I very much doubt it is now though

[N35t0r]

Russia is now completely war tuned. that means that even if it collapses it will continue to go whatever hardship.
they say we lost 27 million in ww2 and won. we only lost 1 million now. we have space for more....


I guess living peacefully and chasing girls is not glorious enough.

ukraine will not ever capitulate losing territory through war (who would?)

They suffered ca. 1 million casualties, but also another million people emigrated to avoid the war.

Furthermore, while their current population is ~40% higher than before WW2, the percentage of under 20s is half of what it was back then. The percentage of over-65s went from under 5% to 16%, and it isn't higher only because Russian death rates are actually around the same as after WWII, and twice as high as during the late 50s and 60s.

[Geronimo]

They suffered ca. 1 million casualties, but also another million people emigrated to avoid the war.

Furthermore, while their current population is ~40% higher than before WW2, the percentage of under 20s is half of what it was back then. The percentage of over-65s went from under 5% to 16%, and it isn't higher only because Russian death rates are actually around the same as after WWII, and twice as high as during the late 50s and 60s.

Serb claims that tens of millions of immigrants now live there from Ukraine as refugees desperately fleeing from the Nazi regime in Kiev. I wonder what the true number of immigrants during the "special military operation" to Russia has been?

[BeBMan]

Serb's wrong, as there is no Nazi regime in Kiev.