Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

IIRC it's been reported that they had overall much more than 10000 tanks before the war, even only a part of them battle-ready. Of all the reserve stuff they opted for them T-62s...which begs the question is the rest even older, or are they just unable to reactivate more modern stuff in sufficient numbers (edit: or is the reserve not really that large).

[Dauphin]

Someone in Russian procurement: "It may look like cardboard, but I have an invoice here that says 'reactive armour'. "

[Dinner]

I did find this article from Ian Bremmer's outfit, The Eurasian Times.

https://eurasiantimes.com/biggest-up...g-arsenal/?amp

"Gurulyov said that the T-62s in question would be upgraded, including modern thermal and night vision optics, additional armor, and other protection measures, particularly for defense against anti-tank guided missiles such as the US-made Javelin."

My guess is the "other protection measures" is a cope cage which has proven to be ineffective over and over and over in this war. The addition of I.R./Thermals is a definite step up and it sounds like they claim to be adding some type of reactive armor but Russia reactive armor tends to be crap. Many of the captured Russian tanks were found to have no reactive elements in the supposed reactive armor so it was just extra weight. Corruption bites Russia in the backside every time.

[Dinner]

I wonder if they are applying any sort of quick upgrade package or if they are just being sent as RPG fodder? I doubt ukraine will waste modern anti tank systems on t‐62s.

Russian media claims they are being upgraded but refused to say what those upgrades are. My guess is they are only adding an IR sight and maybe improved gun sites. If they are lucky a radio. I just don't see them spending much on obsolete garbage who's armor won't stop a single modern round.

I guess even junk tanks are better than no tanks though.

[Geronimo]

A possible motive is not an actual motive.

When is attempting to make such a distinction actually helpful to explain anything?

could you clarify the difference between observing a possible motive and observing an actual motive?

[Geronimo]

Russia is busy pulling up ancient obsolete aT-62s (800 of them) because they just can't get the parts to manufacture enough modern tanks. They are pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point. Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.

I wonder if they are applying any sort of quick upgrade package or if they are just being sent as RPG fodder? I doubt ukraine will waste modern anti tank systems on t‐62s.

[Geronimo]

I'm wondering if the new Russian offensive has started or not. With an exact date we would be able to easily calculate the end of this war, which would then be three days later.

Even now I can't see ruling out the possibility. Ukraine's astonishing success is based on a huge variety of lucky breaks, fragile strengths and unreliable advantages.

[BeBMan]

Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.

Indeed keeping the war going, and hoping that support for Ukraine dries up seems to be their game now.

On the ground they don't seem to learn much from previous mistakes tho. Recently they reported a gain of 2km in four days as some kind of an improvement. This would be 500m/day on average. In other words with human wave attacks and arty barrages Russia is basically reenacting WW I

Otoh mechanized assaults like that one recently at Vuledar ended in heavy losses, even Pro-Russian commentators are saying this.

[Egbert]

The pipeline is not actually destroyed. So long as the repair costs are less than the liabilities, you have motive.

A possible motive is not an actual motive.

[Dinner]

Russia is busy pulling up ancient obsolete aT-62s (800 of them) because they just can't get the parts to manufacture enough modern tanks. They are pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point. Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.

[BeBMan]

I'm wondering if the new Russian offensive has started or not. With an exact date we would be able to easily calculate the end of this war, which would then be three days later.

[N35t0r]

Look at modern Grozny 25 years after the war.

Still not back to it's 1989 population numbers.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

Serb is a typical Russian, so - nope, MWHC!

How is your bunker doing? Is booze room still full?

my bunker is well. my Camero is warm and fuzzy. it is filled with the captain. OH! and also. another 18 holes today. MHLC beat me by 1 shot. i had a penalty shot hole 17. i had a bad shot hole 18. dang. but it was a good day. she (MHLC) did have a hole in one! par 3. it was nice.

[pchang]

Shhhh - don't pester him with facts. If the cognitive dissonance breaks, it might kill him.

[Geronimo]

Absolute majority.

It prevented an Ukranian fullscale invasion of Donbass and complete genocide of Russians there.

Look at modern Grozny 25 years after the war.

We never cared if they like us or not, as long they don't sream "knife the Moskals, hang the Moskals" as they did at Maidan in 2014 and still doing.
Some things are simply not acceptable.

See above.

Obviously, the media where you live is claiming that the Ukrainian state was pursuing genocide of ethnic Russians. Why do you believe this? Does that make any sense? If Zelensky were living in the Donbass from 2014 to 2022 would he have been a target of the genocide campaign? He was elected president of Ukraine however. Isn't that odd? Wouldn't that be like a Jew being elected Chancellor in the Third Reich?

You have doubtless been shown tons of video footage of Ukrainians expressing hate and resentment towards Russia. The Holodomor is living memory. Russia has never stopped trying to strongarm Ukraine. It would use carrot and stick but there was always a stick. That's precisely the kind of environment in which those kinds of over-the-top expressions of hate proliferate. This expression of resentment is a Hell of a long way from endorsing genocide of an ethnicity in their own country and even further from possessing the power to pursue such a goal. Again, how in the hell would a Russian-as-first-language speaker ever get elected to power in a state where it was possible to implement genocide of Russian speakers as state policy?

Also, you like how Russia handled Chechnya. You look at the shiny new buildings and say "Isn't this great?! Look at what Russia has done for Chechnya!". Upwards of 250,000 civilians died in Chechnya.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2005/...-killed-300000

The entire Republic has a population of barely 1.5 million people Serb!

You are endorsing a formula of action in Ukraine which would predict 6 to 7 million civilian deaths as a laudable response to a claimed total of 14,000 Ukrainian ethnic Russians.

How is that not sick and depraved?