Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

Given the all Russian media is state controlled and this filled with lies...

[Dinner]

Modernized T-55's can be somewhat useful, unfortunately for Russia, all the good upgrade packages are made by western countries like Slovakia.

And Russia's tank production relies on electronics and optics sourced from France.

Slovenia was trying to get rid of some T-55s for the last decade or so. Eventually, Germany give them some trucks in exchange for those ancient tanks (modestly upgraded in the 90's) and supposedly gave them to Ukraine.

[pchang]

No. we just accept everything that Serb says as gospel.

[Berzerker]

Are people still relying on western sources for information about the war?

[Broken_Erika]

Modernized T-55's can be somewhat useful, unfortunately for Russia, all the good upgrade packages are made by western countries like Slovakia.

And Russia's tank production relies on electronics and optics sourced from France.

[Dinner]

I have heard the Russians lack the parts and capability to manufacture new tanks in appreciable numbers. That is why T-90s are so rare on the battlefield plus T-90's are just renamed and ever so slightly upgraded T-72s so they are crap anyway. Russia had something like 3200 active duty tanks at the start of the war and the remain 7000 or so reserve tanks were just old tanks parked in a muddy field and left to rust away to pieces. They would be exceedingly lucky if they could revive even half of them after rusting away, exposed to the elements, for 30-50 years depending on how old the model is.

Norway's defense minister recently claimed half of all usable tanks available to Russia have now been destroy or captured. The remaining stock is pretty much all old T-62s and T-55s both of which have been obsolete since the Vietnam era.

[BeBMan]

IIRC it's been reported that they had overall much more than 10000 tanks before the war, even only a part of them battle-ready. Of all the reserve stuff they opted for them T-62s...which begs the question is the rest even older, or are they just unable to reactivate more modern stuff in sufficient numbers (edit: or is the reserve not really that large).

[Dauphin]

Someone in Russian procurement: "It may look like cardboard, but I have an invoice here that says 'reactive armour'. "

[Dinner]

I did find this article from Ian Bremmer's outfit, The Eurasian Times.

https://eurasiantimes.com/biggest-up...g-arsenal/?amp

"Gurulyov said that the T-62s in question would be upgraded, including modern thermal and night vision optics, additional armor, and other protection measures, particularly for defense against anti-tank guided missiles such as the US-made Javelin."

My guess is the "other protection measures" is a cope cage which has proven to be ineffective over and over and over in this war. The addition of I.R./Thermals is a definite step up and it sounds like they claim to be adding some type of reactive armor but Russia reactive armor tends to be crap. Many of the captured Russian tanks were found to have no reactive elements in the supposed reactive armor so it was just extra weight. Corruption bites Russia in the backside every time.

[Dinner]

I wonder if they are applying any sort of quick upgrade package or if they are just being sent as RPG fodder? I doubt ukraine will waste modern anti tank systems on t‐62s.

Russian media claims they are being upgraded but refused to say what those upgrades are. My guess is they are only adding an IR sight and maybe improved gun sites. If they are lucky a radio. I just don't see them spending much on obsolete garbage who's armor won't stop a single modern round.

I guess even junk tanks are better than no tanks though.

[Geronimo]

A possible motive is not an actual motive.

When is attempting to make such a distinction actually helpful to explain anything?

could you clarify the difference between observing a possible motive and observing an actual motive?

[Geronimo]

Russia is busy pulling up ancient obsolete aT-62s (800 of them) because they just can't get the parts to manufacture enough modern tanks. They are pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point. Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.

I wonder if they are applying any sort of quick upgrade package or if they are just being sent as RPG fodder? I doubt ukraine will waste modern anti tank systems on t‐62s.

[Geronimo]

I'm wondering if the new Russian offensive has started or not. With an exact date we would be able to easily calculate the end of this war, which would then be three days later.

Even now I can't see ruling out the possibility. Ukraine's astonishing success is based on a huge variety of lucky breaks, fragile strengths and unreliable advantages.

[BeBMan]

Don't gete wrong, Russia could still win a long war of attrition if the west loses interest but we're talking about well over a million dead Russians for a phyric victory.

Indeed keeping the war going, and hoping that support for Ukraine dries up seems to be their game now.

On the ground they don't seem to learn much from previous mistakes tho. Recently they reported a gain of 2km in four days as some kind of an improvement. This would be 500m/day on average. In other words with human wave attacks and arty barrages Russia is basically reenacting WW I

Otoh mechanized assaults like that one recently at Vuledar ended in heavy losses, even Pro-Russian commentators are saying this.

[Egbert]

The pipeline is not actually destroyed. So long as the repair costs are less than the liabilities, you have motive.

A possible motive is not an actual motive.