Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

I can now rest assured if you're telling me what I think its gonna be something crazy (or unethical and disloyal). So speaking for myself, I never said the only goal of neocons was selling weapons. That would be crazy, weapons are only one of many possible means to their goal, but it sure helps when you can bribe corporate support with tax dollars. George Carlin had a routine on the one thing America is still good at - we can bomb the **** out of other countries.

This is about US hegemony... resources, that is the goal of neocons. Basically blood for oil but thats not unique to neocons, its just life. The powerful take what they want from the weak. If weapons help or they dont, we want what is under other people's feet. If they resist we bring them democracy one way or another, assassinations, bribery, blackmail, economic extortion...invasion. There are plenty of msm news articles about Azov and the Ukrainian right wing after the coup, so many Congress had to pretend they cared about arming Nazis. They were arming ISIS to destroy Syria too, thats how our ambassador got killed in Benghazi. We were shipping Libyan weapons to Turkey to arm terrorists.

Notice how both parties have different enemies? The Dems want a proxy war (or more) and regime change in Russia. The Repubs are screaming bloody murder over a Chinese weather balloon. Neocons run both parties, they just disagree on how to take on China. The policy was to bleed Russia but Trump wanted to pry Putin away from China. US corporations and neocons dont want Russia selling resources to Europe, that weakens US hegemony. But beyond the ideologues follow a swamp of grifters who just want to profit from the destruction, like the US corporations that will swoop into Ukraine like vultures when this war ends.

ok. So you agree that neocons have multiple goals that they are trying to achieve with their toxic agenda? I am cool with calling out any of those goals that need some daylight to undermine their influence on public policy. It's certainly essential that people be reminded that arms manufacturer lobbyists will pull in the the wrong direction for all of the wrong reasons. People also need to be reminded how terribly neocon seemingly laudable goals like protecting human rights have been served by their hawkish military adventures. Iraq II, arab spring and afghanistan exit were total fusterclucks with respect to protecting human rights.

You, however, claim here and elsewhere that the neocons really just want the united states to militarily control states with valuable resources. Is that what you believe? (I understand you don't like being told what you believe.) if that is what you believe, how do you know this? How would this be different from neo-mercantilism? Isn't neo-mercantilism more of the PRC and even Russia playbook than the US or any Western country? How much military adventurism have the PRC engaged in? Not much right? So what *has* the PRC been hawkish on? Do wild claims on all of the territory of the south China sea look more like neo-mercantilism or does the US pattern of invade, occupy, get bored and bail leaving an unfriendly regime to take over look more like neo-mercantilism? Do you realize that the US consistently gives more opportunity for direct foreign control over valuable resources in the United states than China or even Russia gives to foreigners in China or Russia? How strange if the dominant influence over US foreign policy consists of neo-cons trying to maximize US control over resources.

On the other hand, If you don't believe neo-mercantilism is driving neo-cons to pursue control of resources why do you constantly assert that their military adventures are resource motivated? Where do you see them asserting this or where do you see the pattern of policies that would actually serve this motivation? It seems to me that if there is one thing absent from neoconservative policies it would be any plans that would shore up long term US control of resources.

So long as the US is not demonstrably working to increase US state control over valuable US resources let alone maintaining US control of foreign resources, then it is ridiculous to claim its foreign policy is especially focused on gaining US control over foreign resources. Either the neo cons don't actually control foreign policy or they don't place high priority on gaining US control of natural resources or both are not true but there's no way we can claim that neocons are successfully pushing US foreign policy to focus on US control of resources.

For my part I think the neo-conservatives are just a heterogenous label for all war hawks who are convinced that use of force should always be considered for every problem and who are great are selling these plans to politicians and sometimes even the public and are horrible at getting them sustained or constructively followed up on. If that is the case they will certainly push military intervention in almost any way but they won't necessarily further US control over resources at all.

You seem to say the neocons successfully devised and sold a plan to successive US presidents from opposing parties which unilaterally overthrew and sustained control of the Ukrainian government in order to maintain a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine that the Russians and Ukrainians could not resist or interfere with that plan.

Wouldn't it make more sense to suppose that the conflict was due to issues between the Russians and Ukrainians and that neocons have simply been selling plans to try to "manage" US influence on the conflict in the same manner that all other countries try to manage affairs to their advantage?

Getting on to your other bold claim in this post. Why the hell intentionally fund a loose cannon like ISIS? That makes no sense. Doesn't it seem more likely that Neocons were too optimistic and too invested in the policies that they were on record of pushing of intervening against Assad in the Syrian civil war to acknowledge that ISIS was successfully seizing US military support to inflict as much harm on US interests as Assad ever did? Why don't you suppose that they don't actually support ISIS but rather were incapable of competently intervening in the civil war?

I don't understand why you don't switch to opposing hawks in foreign policy in general rather than swallowing hook line and sinker these implausible narratives that leave Russia and PRC as somehow passive victims of US aggression? Doesn't it makes sense that Russia could be the ultimate source of these narratives?

[BeBMan]

Please keep in mind that China and India are buying Russian natural resources at significant discounts.

Indeed. And Russia is running a deficit now:

Russia's budget deficit surged to 1.76 trillion rubles ($24.8 billion) in January 2023, the Finance Ministry said Monday, as Western sanctions cut into oil and gas revenues and the country raised its wartime spending.

The figures mark Russia’s largest first-month budget deficit since at least 1998, according to Bloomberg.

Revenues fell 35% to 1.356 trillion rubles ($19 billion) while spending rose 59% to 3.117 trillion rubles ($44 billion) compared to January 2022.

Revenues from oil and gas were down 46% at 426 billion rubles ($6 billion), while non-oil and gas revenues down 28% at 931 billion rubles ($13 billion).

The Finance Ministry blamed the drop in energy revenues on falling gas exports and the “decreased representativeness” of Western monthly price assessments that forced Russia to sell its oil at a big discount.

Non-oil and gas revenues dropped due to changes in value-added tax rules and VAT reimbursements, the ministry said in its preliminary assessment of the budget.

Western price caps and embargoes weighed down on Russia’s oil and gas revenues, with Russia’s Urals blend trading at under $50 a barrel in January 2023 — down 42% from January 2022.

To counteract the sanctions’ effect on budget revenue, President Vladimir Putin has set a March 1 deadline for his government to draft a new plan for calculating the price of Russian oil.

The January 2023 budget deficit comes after Russia posted the second-highest gap in its recent history in 2022.

Russia forecasts its budget deficit to reach 3 trillion rubles ($43 billion) in 2023, with at least one-third of state spending expected to go to defense and security.

Bloomberg Economics economist Alexander Isakov said Russia’s 2023 budget deficit could more than double to 6.9 trillion rubles ($97 billion).

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/07/russian-budget-deficit-swells-on-increased-war-spending-falling-energy-revenues-a80159

[Berzerker]

Because they wanted a war with Russia

[Berzerker]

I think that Russia has obviously decided that it will gain more traction with its disinformation by picking a partisan side in the US rather than trying to sell the disinformation in some sort of non-partisan manner.

You have a set of beliefs that says US foreign policy exists only to further neocons efforts to increase arms sales. Nobody sells this except random tinfoil hat nutjobs and people who accept money from Russia to tailor the narrative they sell to Russia's interests according to Russia's specified talking points.

You see these "independent journalists" telling you these things that confirm your worldview and lap it up with alacrity.

So where should you and I Iook to see whose narrative is more full of BS?

I can now rest assured if you're telling me what I think its gonna be something crazy (or unethical and disloyal). So speaking for myself, I never said the only goal of neocons was selling weapons. That would be crazy, weapons are only one of many possible means to their goal, but it sure helps when you can bribe corporate support with tax dollars. George Carlin had a routine on the one thing America is still good at - we can bomb the **** out of other countries.

This is about US hegemony... resources, that is the goal of neocons. Basically blood for oil but thats not unique to neocons, its just life. The powerful take what they want from the weak. If weapons help or they dont, we want what is under other people's feet. If they resist we bring them democracy one way or another, assassinations, bribery, blackmail, economic extortion...invasion. There are plenty of msm news articles about Azov and the Ukrainian right wing after the coup, so many Congress had to pretend they cared about arming Nazis. They were arming ISIS to destroy Syria too, thats how our ambassador got killed in Benghazi. We were shipping Libyan weapons to Turkey to arm terrorists.

Notice how both parties have different enemies? The Dems want a proxy war (or more) and regime change in Russia. The Repubs are screaming bloody murder over a Chinese weather balloon. Neocons run both parties, they just disagree on how to take on China. The policy was to bleed Russia but Trump wanted to pry Putin away from China. US corporations and neocons dont want Russia selling resources to Europe, that weakens US hegemony. But beyond the ideologues follow a swamp of grifters who just want to profit from the destruction, like the US corporations that will swoop into Ukraine like vultures when this war ends.

[Geronimo]

Evil people who commit a massacre at a protest are not interested in fair elections

Why should we care what the evil people who committed a massacre at the protest are interested in?

You do realize a very tiny group of people would be capable of pulling that off. You also realize pulling that off would be worthless to exercising power in general?

[Geronimo]

Would that be a commission appointed by the coup govt we backed? My source is simple: the Ukrainian right wing attacked people objecting to their coup. There was no fair election. Millions of voters who supported the man they ousted were fleeing for their lives or silenced and cowered into submission. If you're so impressed by their fair elections, why did Zelensky campaign on ending the war only to be pushed aside and threatened? Democracy or Nazis and the CIA?

I think that Russia has obviously decided that it will gain more traction with its disinformation by picking a partisan side in the US rather than trying to sell the disinformation in some sort of non-partisan manner.

You have a set of beliefs that says US foreign policy exists only to further neocons efforts to increase arms sales. Nobody sells this except random tinfoil hat nutjobs and people who accept money from Russia to tailor the narrative they sell to Russia's interests according to Russia's specified talking points.

You see these "independent journalists" telling you these things that confirm your worldview and lap it up with alacrity.

So where should you and I Iook to see whose narrative is more full of BS?

[Geronimo]

I do think Ukraine should be pressured hard behind the scenes to offer Putin face saving concessions that do zero to weaken Ukraine strategically. One of the easiest to offer (preferably with a great show of how offensive and normally unacceptable it is to offer it) would be "De-nazification".

Ukraine could enact a treaty that would protect the freedom to use Russian. The treaty would systematically rename all public places and monuments. Every instance of "Bandera" could be officially replaced with "Zelensky" or "Rurik" or "Yoda" or whatever. The treaty could replace every swastika in any public image with Rurik's trident, a smiley face, a banana or whatever. The treaty could require every public official to swear they are not a nazi.

In exchange for all that irrelevant pile of nonsense Russia would withdraw all troops and China and new Zealand or something could place some observers in the liberated areas of Ukraine.

Bottom line, Putin must only be given empty vacuous concessions that he can promote as victory to try to keep his job instead of acting like a cornered rat.

[Geronimo]

I am thinking, not of appeasement, but what happens when a nuclear power is facing humiliation. Losing the Crimea would be a humiliation for Putin and a decisive defeat for Russia.

My thinking is "how would Putin react if Ukraine captured Crimea and demanded it in a peace treaty". Could Putin stay in power if he accepted this? Would Russia feel so humiliated that they would actually use a nuclear weapon?

At what point would nuclear weapons be used?

It's simple if Putin is a rational actor at no point will nuclear weapons be used. If Putin is *not* a rational actor, then all bets are off and we cannot hope to predict his behavior. Probably the safest description of Putin is that he is a rational actor who wants us to doubt that he is a rational actor so we will cave in to his nuclear threats.

[pchang]

Please keep in mind that China and India are buying Russian natural resources at significant discounts.

[BeBMan]

I too started to think that this may be a way for the West to weaken Russia; but what would the long (and short) term result be of a weakened Russia? The answer is starting to happen. Stronger Sino-Russian relations. Since the West (for the most part) stopped buying all those Russian resources, China could buy them cheap. We're driving huge amounts of cheap resources to our greatest competitor.

CNN sez that US gas prices are below pre-war levels now

(Of course they were higher for some time last year, which the piece is discussing).

As for Europe, things are somewhat different, but after a year it's safe to say that so far Putin's "Energy War" is a failure - one of several of his miscalculations.

However, I do agree that Western reaction brings China/Russia closer, and it has an impact resource-wise and in other fields. But to continue to buy Russia's resources as before would basically reward the aggressor, and still fund his war-machine, so I don't think there's much of an alternative.

In general I would not even have a problem to buy Russian resources again (in much lower quantities though) if the situation changes. After all, basically everyone on Earth does business with all kinds of other countries, and we/whoever do not have the luxury to choose their governments.

But IMO that would certainly require peace and significant easing of the tensions we have now.

[Berzerker]

moved......

[BeBMan]

When I told Serb that Russia would soon be China's lapdog I was trolling. But, I was also serious and it appears, quite accurate.

Yeah, basically Putin ceded influence over former Soviet countries in Asia to China and made Russia dependent on China economically and technologically.

[Berzerker]

Evil people who commit a massacre at a protest are not interested in fair elections

[Berzerker]

What are your sources? If you don't trust the Central Election Commission (Ukraine) why do you trust your sources and their claims about election results?

Would that be a commission appointed by the coup govt we backed? My source is simple: the Ukrainian right wing attacked people objecting to their coup. There was no fair election. Millions of voters who supported the man they ousted were fleeing for their lives or silenced and cowered into submission. If you're so impressed by their fair elections, why did Zelensky campaign on ending the war only to be pushed aside and threatened? Democracy or Nazis and the CIA?

[Berzerker]

Russia's not going to lose anything other than blood and treasure, the real offensive is coming and Ukraine will collapse. They fought bravely but its over, they cant fill the ranks of the dead with children and old people try as they may.