Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BlackCat]

Aussies seems to send their bleeding edge high tech weapons to ukraine

Technically it sounds kind of crazy, but if it actually can deliver serious payloads it may not be that crazy at all

[BlackCat]

So since Polytubbies seemed to have missed it, pro-Russian demonstrations have been taking place in Moldova (that bit between Ukraine and Romania). Moldova used to have Black Sea ports, and after being rejected by Romania and Ukraine as 'partners' (Moldava is a basket case), seems to see this as a chance to ingratiate itself by opening some sort of western front, and maybe capturing a port or two.

Of course, Romania would probably be pulled in if a conflict occures.And this would give Putin the excuse he needs..

Some fun facts about this - these demonstrations are made of a Moldovian party that has some 5% votes in the country, the leader of the party is an oligarch probably financed by russia - he has apparently committed serious crimes and have fled the country. Those left behind are being investigated for russian money financing these "demonstrations". Moldova may probably not be on the top of becoming an EU member, but I think the large majority of the country would prefer that over some nefarious russian connection.

[Geronimo]

I guess he's referring to some referendums about autonomy and language institutionalization in the 90's Dinner.

[Dinner]

I utterly and completely laugh at the idiotic ideo that 90% voted to join Russia. The Russians literally went around armed with guns telling people they had to vote for annexation. What type of moron thinks that is a fair vote?

[Geronimo]

"Another Crimean referendum in March 1994 asked three questions: ‘1.3 million voted, 78.4% of whom supported greater autonomy from Ukraine"

https://culturedarm.com/the-crimean-referendums-of-1991-and-1994/

"These questions included whether Russian should be declared an official language of Ukraine, whether Russian should be the language of administration in Donetsk and Luhansk, whether Ukraine should federalise, and whether Ukraine should have closer ties with the Commonwealth of Independent States, the remnants of the Soviet Union.

Almost 90% of voters voted in favor of these propositions; however, none of them were adopted: Ukraine remained a unitary state, Ukrainian was retained as the sole official language, and the Donbas gained no autonomy."

Those were in 1994

https://greekreporter.com/2022/09/30/history-donbas-donetsk-luhansk/

It's incredibly important that neither Donbas independence, including any part of the Donbas, nor Donbas accession to Russia were on the ballot Berz.

[Berzerker]

that was after these votes and the referendum sought autonomy from Ukraine

[Dinner]

All of NATO and even Asian allies are going to need to rapidly build their stockpiles up as well as improve their capabilities because Xi is very open with the fact that he wants the CCP to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 at the latest.

[N35t0r]

Yeah, this will also (hopefully) bring more military readiness in Europe, which together with Russia paper army reveal (and them losing a lot of what they did have) will allow the US to focus more on China. Together with (finally) having ending it's 'adventures' in the middle east will hopefully make China think really hard before doing anything.

[PLATO]

- C can lean back safely while its competitors, be it US, Europe, or Russia inflict losses/damage/costs on eachother

Not sure that I totally agree with this one. Certainly costs have risen as countries across the globe are increasing their defense budgets, but they are also increasing arms production and preparedness. The increase in military industrialism and preparedness certainly does not benefit China.

The other three are for sure benefits to China, but they also come with a cost. Europe is looking at China with a much more skeptical eye these days and U.S. China paranoia is growing daily. If China begins to become isolated from the West, then the economy there will definitely suffer.

[BeBMan]

In other news: people have simply no respect anymore

“This war which was launched against us…” Lavrov’s statement has crowd burst into laughter

[BeBMan]

Ironically 1994 was also the year in which Russia demonstrated its stance on post-Soviet independency in the 1st Chechen War.

[Berzerker]

"Another Crimean referendum in March 1994 asked three questions: ‘1.3 million voted, 78.4% of whom supported greater autonomy from Ukraine"

https://culturedarm.com/the-crimean-referendums-of-1991-and-1994/

"These questions included whether Russian should be declared an official language of Ukraine, whether Russian should be the language of administration in Donetsk and Luhansk, whether Ukraine should federalise, and whether Ukraine should have closer ties with the Commonwealth of Independent States, the remnants of the Soviet Union.

Almost 90% of voters voted in favor of these propositions; however, none of them were adopted: Ukraine remained a unitary state, Ukrainian was retained as the sole official language, and the Donbas gained no autonomy."

Those were in 1994

https://greekreporter.com/2022/09/30/history-donbas-donetsk-luhansk/

[BeBMan]

Hard to say that I think given the literally billions that China has spent and continues to spend to get ready for that. Still, I think they know the West is on to them and from what I can tell we are making some pretty strong moves to get ready ourselves. Maybe after Xi is gone (assuming they haven't attacked by the time he eventually is out of power) maybe someone a little less ambitious on that issue will arise. Hard to tell at this point....

I'm wondering if China is behind this whole war in Ukraine...now jokes aside, China seems to be the only side that gets benefits currently:

- C gets more influence as Russia's is waning in Asia
- C gets cheap resources from Russia
- in result C's influence over Russia is also increasing, as Russia cannot afford to lose C's money and political support
- C can lean back safely while its competitors, be it US, Europe, or Russia inflict losses/damage/costs on eachother

[Geronimo]

They voted on independence over 2 decades ago when the USSR fell apart, over 90% wanted independence from Ukraine. About the same as the Donbas.

I can easily find results for Ukrainian independence from the USSR at that time which every region had 83%+ in favor with high turnout except for Crimea barely breaking 50% and with only 20% turnout. I can also find the results of the transcarpathia independence from Ukraine poll which got approval on the other western side of the country.

Do you have links for these late 20th century Donbas independence from Ukraine referenda?

[Geronimo]

Because the people will actively fight against it. Which makes it untenable to take it unless you are willing to pretty much kill every single one of them.

We'll see if they really do first.