Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

So...basically you agree then that no promise of no NATO expansion was made.

[Berzerker]

"In 1990, few gave the possibility of a broader NATO enlargement to the east any serious thought."

Because the deal wouldn't even allow expansion into E Germany

“The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years.” To be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement."

[Berzerker]

"Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward?"

Was a question, not a statement of fact

[Dinner]

Also, even Gorbachev says it didn't happen.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

That is what I am saying. EVERYONE who was there said it was a lie made up by Putin a decade after the fact. It is just nonsense propaganda out of Putin made up to try to justify his wars of conquest.

[pchang]

But, but.......

Berz KNOWS it is TRUE!!!!

[PLATO]

Also, even Gorbachev says it didn't happen.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

[Dinner]

1994 - Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward? The nukes weren't operable, Russia had the keys.
Maidan was not narrowly popular and was more unpopular in E Ukraine. The coup and Crimea were in 2014. Separatists protested the coup and took control of govt buildings in the Donbas.

"A national survey held in March-April 2014 found that 31% of respondents in the Donbas wanted the region to separate from Ukraine, while 58% wanted autonomy within Ukraine.^[52]"

Nope, all the eye witnesses say that never happened. It is funny that the known liar Putin doesn't even invent that lie until around 2002. Yet no one who was actually present says any such words were ever mentioned nor was it ever listed in the exhaustive paperwork documenting everything. It is just a lie invented by the liar Putin and it is sad you buy into his lies.

From the beginning NATO has always said any country which meets the membership criteria and who willingly wants to join can. So the lies Putin is telling would directly contradict the NATO charter and its entire history.

[BeBMan]

For those interested in a longer read, here's a "Spiegel" interview with Timothy Snyder:

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/historiker-timothy-snyder-zum-ukraine-krieg-in-russland-steht-der-wille-ueber-der-vernunft-1678197359-a-063f199f-2112-4874-abf2-cfc017b93e88

[Geronimo]

1994 - Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward? The nukes weren't operable, Russia had the keys.
Maidan was not narrowly popular and was more unpopular in E Ukraine. The coup and Crimea were in 2014. Separatists protested the coup and took control of govt buildings in the Donbas.

"A national survey held in March-April 2014 found that 31% of respondents in the Donbas wanted the region to separate from Ukraine, while 58% wanted autonomy within Ukraine.^[52]"

Even if I grant you all of these quoted points, how in the hell does that get you to Ukraine being a nazi state controlled by a washington neocon cabal that forced a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine to occur?

My take, with or without your points here is that Ukraine is a deeply divided society. Russia pushed, pulled and manipulated Ukraine to stay closer to and more dependent on Russia while the US and the EU pushed and pulled Ukraine towards the EU and NATO. When a president pissed off one side of the divide it led to huge protests which Russia and the West tried to take advantage of to push and pull their interests. When the dust settled the Ukrainian government swung west, Russia made a grab for Crimea and instigated and assisted the Donbas rebellion as a strategic buffer/insurance for its new conquest. When it was clear that Ukraine was never going to relinquish its claim to Crimea Putin began to look for a convenient time to grab the rest and neutralize NATO credibility. Putin noted France, Germany and other NATO heavy weights were quite happy to expand business with Russia. Putin noted that NATO had given almost no military support to Ukraine and the Budapest memoradum Ukrainian security guarantee obligations of the US and of the UK were essentially ignored. Putin recognized the global post covid chaos, signals of support of Russia from the PRC and the post Afganistan Western meltdown as a unique opportunity to enact the masterplan. Everyone who reported to Putin had learned over the years that the best way to advance and stay out of trouble was to feed Putin information he wanted to believe so everybody who had his ear told him that conditions for an operation against Ukraine were extremely favorable. Putin moved his enormous force into place. Putin couldn't hide something that big and NATO panicked and negotiated to avoid it. NATO was terrified that conceding to Putin control of internal NATO decisions like membership accession mechanisms would fatally undermine NATO viability. Putin calculated that a successful Ukrainian operation would break NATO confidence and dissolve NATO future viability anyway so he felt no pressure to settle. He was confident Western divisions were profound and leadership was totally absent. He attacked.

What if NATO had not expanded? He would have attacked earlier.

How in the hell do you figure Washington Neocons made all of this happen?

[BeBMan]

Are you saying opinion polls in another country legitimize an attack on that country?

[BeBMan]

Looks like Russia is finally taking the threat from squirrels seriously:

World Wildlife Fund declared "foreign agent"

(...)“under the guise of protecting nature and the environment […] tried to influence the decisions of the executive and legislative branches of the Russian Federation, and to hinder the completion of industrial and infrastructural projects.”(...)

The WWF should clearly stand down before Medvedev calls for nuking nature or somesuch.

[Berzerker]

real events in Ukraine;


1994 ukraine gives Russia a giant windfall gift of the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal and triad in exchange only for Russia promises to recognize and protect ukraine's borders and integrity. The US and UK also sign on in exchange for nothing except obligations to guarantee the independence and integrity of Ukraine.

2013. Putin pressures duly elected Ukrainian president to back out of narrowly popularly supported deal that would grant trade concessions to the EU and establish closer economic trade relations with the EU.

2013 Duly elected Ukrainian president backs out of said deal.

2013 Duly elected president faces large protests for canceling the narrowly popularly supported EU deal.

2013 foreign governments get more busy behind the scenes trying to manipulate the conflict to their advantage.

2013 snipers shoot police and protestors

2013 duly elected president is forced from power by concerted effort by other Ukrainian branches of government. Duly elected president is replaced by someone Nuland is on record as favoring to lead.

2013 little green men occupy Crimea.

2013-2014 abruptly organized illegal local elections declare independence of Crimea and Donbas from Ukraine.

2014 little green men and a hastily armed local militia force attack Ukrainian regular armed forces stationed in the Donbas who flee.

2014 largely russian speaking Dobas locals form Azov and other right wing paramilitary units that attack the Donbas Russian little green men and new independence militias. Sometimes with assistance fro. The returning regular Ukrainian armed forces.

2014 after a lot of fighting Minsk I agreement is negotiated and fighting continues

2015 after more fighting Minsk Ii agreement is negotiated and fighting continues
2018 after years of sitting on its hands and ignoring it's Budapest memorandum obligations, the US sends its first lethal aid to Ukraine. $47 mill in javelins and light weapons.

2021 Russia spends months building and massing a giant invasion force which is noticed and promises it has no intention of attacking anyone and makes various demands on nato in exchange for not attacking anyone.

2022 Russia recognizes donbas independence and invades Ukraine from 3 sides...

I'll probably make a more complete timeliness later but for now it's obvious, this isn't an attack by neocons on Russia. This is an attack by Russia on ukraine.

1994 - Didn't the US promise not to expand Nato eastward? The nukes weren't operable, Russia had the keys.
Maidan was not narrowly popular and was more unpopular in E Ukraine. The coup and Crimea were in 2014. Separatists protested the coup and took control of govt buildings in the Donbas.

"A national survey held in March-April 2014 found that 31% of respondents in the Donbas wanted the region to separate from Ukraine, while 58% wanted autonomy within Ukraine.^[52]"

[Geronimo]

A little more for now

[Geronimo]

Why do you keep using analogies instead of events in Ukraine?

real events in Ukraine;


1994 ukraine gives Russia a giant windfall gift of the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal and triad in exchange only for Russia promises to recognize and protect ukraine's borders and integrity. The US and UK also sign on in exchange for nothing except obligations to guarantee the independence and integrity of Ukraine.

2013. Putin pressures duly elected Ukrainian president to back out of narrowly popularly supported deal that would grant trade concessions to the EU and establish closer economic trade relations with the EU.

2013 Duly elected Ukrainian president backs out of said deal.

2013 Duly elected president faces large protests for canceling the narrowly popularly supported EU deal.

2013 foreign governments get more busy behind the scenes trying to manipulate the conflict to their advantage.

2013 snipers shoot police and protestors

2013 duly elected president is forced from power by concerted effort by other Ukrainian branches of government. Duly elected president is replaced by someone Nuland is on record as favoring to lead.

2013 little green men occupy Crimea.

2013-2014 abruptly organized illegal local elections declare independence of Crimea and Donbas from Ukraine.

2014 little green men and a hastily armed local militia force attack Ukrainian regular armed forces stationed in the Donbas who flee.

2014 largely russian speaking Dobas locals form Azov and other right wing paramilitary units that attack the Donbas Russian little green men and new independence militias. Sometimes with assistance fro. The returning regular Ukrainian armed forces.

2014 after a lot of fighting Minsk I agreement is negotiated and fighting continues

2015 after more fighting Minsk Ii agreement is negotiated and fighting continues
2018 after years of sitting on its hands and ignoring it's Budapest memorandum obligations, the US sends its first lethal aid to Ukraine. $47 mill in javelins and light weapons.

2021 Russia spends months building and massing a giant invasion force which is noticed and promises it has no intention of attacking anyone and makes various demands on nato in exchange for not attacking anyone.

2022 Russia recognizes donbas independence and invades Ukraine from 3 sides...

I'll probably make a more complete timeliness later but for now it's obvious, this isn't an attack by neocons on Russia. This is an attack by Russia on ukraine.

[Berzerker]

93% of Crimea voted to join the new USSR under Gorbachev's deal. When that fell thru, 54% voted to join Ukraine.