Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

German Blitz Victories were all in the early years of the war. German war production peaked in 1944, when the Blitz days were long gone.

But yeah, let's see how it goes, without support Ukraine could certainly be in trouble at some point. For the next three days however I don't see any immediate danger

[The Mad Monk]

Denmark is sending ALL of it's ammunition reserves to Ukraine.

[Berzerker]

https://p.dw.com/p/4cVje

Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka is a big deal and likely a direct consequence to the non deliveries of military aid to Ukraine that have been missed since early November at least. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are going to settle this thing at sea or in the skies. If major new aid is not received soon, there will probably be a forced peace treaty followed by a total conquest of Ukraine within 5 years when the treaty is unceremoniously flushed on a some truly absurd pretense (timing dependent on elections).

I read it was to avoid encirclement but do you have evidence of this interruption? The supplies they're getting now were voted on before November and I dont think the people in charge are letting that happen, not while the meat grinder is profitable. Lets see, war ends, the Donbas votes on its future and if the west doesn't rearm fine people to resume the war peace might have a chance.

[Geronimo]

I read it was to avoid encirclement but do you have evidence of this interruption? The supplies they're getting now were voted on before November and I dont think the people in charge are letting that happen, not while the meat grinder is profitable. Lets see, war ends, the Donbas votes on its future and if the west doesn't rearm fine people to resume the war peace might have a chance.

Dude if peace had a chance there would never have been hundreds of thousands of Russians and heavy equipment pouring across the border in that first February. You think the West is addicted to arms expenditures??? Holy crap look at addiction Russia is building. If you really believe all this bull**** you've been smoking about the West, with its pissant 4% GDP or lower defense budgets starting wars primarily to make business for defence contractors then how in the hell do you possibly envision an economy like Russia's not being even more likely to choose war for defense contracts when not only have they always constituted a much larger fraction of the Russian economy but they are now entirely responsible for *all* of its economic growth and momentum. You're never going to end the war by weakening Ukraine Berz. At best you'll see a "Minsk 3" followed by another carefully timed follow-up to a future Ukrainian nazi provocations after Russia will have spent the intervening 2 to 4 years spending like drunken sailors on setting up special military operation 2. Do you think it will be cheaper for US taxpayers in that scenario?

[Bereta_Eder]

Denmark is sending ALL of it's ammunition reserves to Ukraine.

Two bullets and a karlsberg?

[pchang]

Don’t forget the ham.

[Berzerker]

Dude if peace had a chance there would never have been hundreds of thousands of Russians and heavy equipment pouring across the border in that first February. You think the West is addicted to arms expenditures??? Holy crap look at addiction Russia is building. If you really believe all this bull**** you've been smoking about the West, with its pissant 4% GDP or lower defense budgets starting wars primarily to make business for defence contractors then how in the hell do you possibly envision an economy like Russia's not being even more likely to choose war for defense contracts when not only have they always constituted a much larger fraction of the Russian economy but they are now entirely responsible for *all* of its economic growth and momentum. You're never going to end the war by weakening Ukraine Berz. At best you'll see a "Minsk 3" followed by another carefully timed follow-up to a future Ukrainian nazi provocations after Russia will have spent the intervening 2 to 4 years spending like drunken sailors on setting up special military operation 2. Do you think it will be cheaper for US taxpayers in that scenario?

I count about a half dozen times Russia tried to end the war: Minsk I&II, 2019 when Zelensky tried and failed to pull Azov away from their war with the protesters, summer of '21 when the Nato secy gen said they rejected another Russian peace deal, a month into the Russian attack when Boris intervened, and again in the interview with Tucker Carlson when Putin said the war would end within a few weeks if the US stopped arming Ukraine. Have you seen Joe Biden trying to end the war?

[Geronimo]

I count about a half dozen times Russia tried to end the war: Minsk I&II, 2019 when Zelensky tried and failed to pull Azov away from their war with the protesters, summer of '21 when the Nato secy gen said they rejected another Russian peace deal, a month into the Russian attack when Boris intervened, and again in the interview with Tucker Carlson when Putin said the war would end within a few weeks if the US stopped arming Ukraine. Have you seen Joe Biden trying to end the war?

Yes. Biden very publicly and officially pushed for peace every single day from for months leading up to the fateful February invasion. Putin rebuffed all of the overtures and offers. He also refused to implement *any* of *any* minsk agreement whatsoever. He insisted Russia was not even bound by *any* of minsk at all. So after the Russians invaded and occupied and even officially annexed an enormous portion of Ukraine waaaay beyond the donbas and crimea what in the hell do you think "peace" would look like and why would Russia be expected to honor the "peace"? Name one agreement term they have fulfilled. Nobody actually ever said they were rejecting any "peace deal". What they rejected was that Russia had left any accountable party to negotiate with and that is painfully obviously true.

[Ming]

Berz's idea of peace is to just keep giving Putin anything he wants. He has no problem with this extortion.

[pchang]

Berz only cares about his own peace.
Berz being able save $0.05 on his taxes >> freedom and lives of thousands of other people.
All the rest are his mental gymnastics to justify the above.

[Berzerker]

arming Nazis doesn't save lives or taxes, on the contrary

[pchang]

And Berz lands a twisting triple flip!

[BeBMan]

Denmark is sending ALL of it's ammunition reserves to Ukraine.

Danish Dynamite

[Berzerker]

Yes. Biden very publicly and officially pushed for peace every single day from for months leading up to the fateful February invasion. Putin rebuffed all of the overtures and offers. He also refused to implement *any* of *any* minsk agreement whatsoever. He insisted Russia was not even bound by *any* of minsk at all. So after the Russians invaded and occupied and even officially annexed an enormous portion of Ukraine waaaay beyond the donbas and crimea what in the hell do you think "peace" would look like and why would Russia be expected to honor the "peace"? Name one agreement term they have fulfilled. Nobody actually ever said they were rejecting any "peace deal". What they rejected was that Russia had left any accountable party to negotiate with and that is painfully obviously true.

I remember before Russia attacked in February Kamala was over there giving speeches praising Ukraine's effort to join Nato even though privately we told Zelensky to lie about it actually happening. What else was Biden doing privately? Telling the Nato sec gen to reject Russia's offer of peace and then sending Boris over to kill the deal they had. This war has been going on since 2014 and in 2019 when Zelensky was trying to end it he identified Ukrainian protesters as the enemy, not Marcia. How do you explain that? Where did your little green men go? We've armed Nazis to kill Ukrainian protesters for a decade and the rest of the world not drowning in our propaganda knows it and China is taking advantage.

Where is your link to Putin refusing to implement anything in Minsk. That quote you chose, was that said after the Ukrainians repeatedly violated the deal or before? If he said that long after Kiev made Minsk moot, so what? Sure looks like Putin was willing to enforce Minsk in 2019 when Zelensky got elected to end the war. It was Azov who refused to stop fighting the protesters. Putin wasn't even a factor.

Russia agreed to ending the war, retreating from Kiev was part of it. Peace will look like this: the USA gets the hell out of dodge and stops creating proxy wars as if the cold war was still ongoing.
That will do it... Peace. Putin made the offer in his interview, the war would end within weeks if Biden stops arming Ukraine. The Donbas would hold elections to decide if they want to stay in Ukraine with autonomy, join Russia, or go independent. Thats their decision, not mine or Brandon and his army of Nazis. Crimea is in the same boat but whatever their fate I dont think Russia will be parting with their naval infrastructure. They had a deal with Ukraine for long term use of the base but the coup in 2014 made it clear the USA was using Ukraine as a battering ram.

I dont understand your last sentence, Russia has repeatedly negotiated with Ukraine and others in the region and with us and we repeatedly killed the deals.

[Ming]

If you think Putin will withdraw from Ukraine without keeping any land, I want what you are smoking.
But I'm sure you will keep believing Russian propaganda and false internet video's.
They already have annexed a part of the country and will not stop until Putin gets his Russian Empire back.

[BeBMan]

Andrey Morozov, a prominent pro-war Russian blogger, has reportedly died by suicide following outrage over a post in which he claimed that the Russian army lost 16,000 soldiers during the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka.

Morozov, who went by the pseudonym Murz on Telegram, was an ultra-nationalist commentator who fought alongside Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and participated in Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.


On Sunday, Morozov wrote to his 120,000 followers on Telegram that Russia lost 16,000 personnel and 300 pieces of armour during its months-long capture of Avdiivka. The post drew heavy criticism from senior Russian propagandists, who accused the blogger of “slandering the Russian defence ministry”.

In Morozov’s final messages on Tuesday morning, he announced his suicide and said he was pressured by his superiors to delete the post detailing the number of casualties in Avdiivka. Several people close to Morozov on Tuesday confirmed his death, with some saying that he had shot himself.

Triggered in part by the rebellion by then-Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin last year largely cracked down on voices such as Morozov, who once was part of a loud group of ultra-nationalist hawks who criticised Moscow over shortages of weapons and accused the Russian military leadership of hiding the true death toll among its forces.

Russia hides its war losses and the true casualty toll from its invasion of Ukraine remains a secret, though western officials believe the war has cost the country more than 315,000 dead and injured troops.

(snipsnap)

from https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ies-by-suicide

[pchang]

Pretty soon, Serb will be able to have 3 or 4 super models as girlfriends simultaneously. The numbers will favor him and most of his competition will be missing important parts!

[Geronimo]

16,000 may be worth it from Putin's point of view adviivka was a highly defendable and commanding location. This will be far more significant than the symbolic "win" at Bakhmut turned out to be.

[Bereta_Eder]

only 10% of europeans think ukraine is going to win the war

https://www.ieidiseis.gr/kosmos/236094/mono-to-10-ton-evropaion-ektimoyn-oti-i-rosia-tha-xasei-ton-polemo-ti-pisteyoun-oi-ellines-erevna

the vast majority thinks there is going to be a compromise

[Berzerker]

there was a compromise in 2014-15