Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Ming]

Oh, then Putin's war has been good for Wall St.

The only thing correct in that statement is "PUTIN'S WAR"
Because he is the one that ordered the attack and his troops have been killing and raping the people he claims to be saving...
And have you noticed that Russia isn't putting those soldiers on trial for their actions? That's because Putin doesn't give a damn about the people, only the territory

[Berzerker]

Can we ask the people of the Donbas?

[Geronimo]

actually we can't ask the people of the Donbas. If they talk to foreigners they will at best be officially forced to declare themselves foreign agents and at worst they will disappear. Depending on what they choose to tell the foreigners of course.

[BeBMan]

To everyone's surprise Putin disagrees with Berz on peace deals:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said peace with Ukraine will only take place "when we achieve our objectives".


He was fielding questions from journalists and ordinary Russians in his first marathon news conference since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

Much of the largely choreographed event focused on what he calls the "special military operation in Ukraine".

He insisted the situation was improving throughout the front line.

The "direct line" programme, televised for more than four hours by most major channels, began with President Putin telling Russians: "The existence of our country without sovereignty is impossible. It will simply not exist."

He added that Russia's economy was strong for a time of war and the topic of conversation quickly moved to Ukraine.

Mr Putin said that "there will be peace [in Ukraine] when we achieve our objectives". Those "objectives do not change", he said, listing "denazification, demilitarisation and its neutral status". These are themes he has highlighted from the start of the war.

(snipsnap)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67711802

[Berzerker]

To everyone's surprise Putin disagrees with Berz on peace deals:

How so?

[-Jrabbit]

You really stop reading as soon as you see "denazification" don't you? His unchanging goals include demilitarizing a sovereign nation and denying them the agency and ability to choose their allies freely.

All, laughably, after starting out by stating, "The existence of our country without sovereignty is impossible. It will simply not exist."
To Putin, only Russia is permitted to be sovereign. And that is the core of his message.

[Berzerker]

the deal he offered in March '22 would have left the Donbas in Ukraine as an autonomous republic, prohibited a ban on the Russian language with no Nato along with limits on Ukraine's future military. If Ukraine ceased being a launching pad for western malfeasance Crimea would be on the table. I think thats a great deal, how about you?

[-Jrabbit]

Makes no sense. You can't create an "autonomous republic" within a sovereign nation.
And if you believe there is any way Putin would put Crimea on the table, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you.
But hey, I agree that cutting the balls off their "brothers" in Ukraine would be a great deal -- for Russia.

[Broken_Erika]

How pro-Russian 'yacht' propaganda influenced US debate over Ukraine aid

A website founded by a former US Marine who now lives in Russia has fuelled a rumour that Volodymyr Zelensky purchased two luxury yachts with American aid money.

Despite the false claim, the disinformation plot was successful. It took off online and was echoed by members of the US Congress making crucial decisions about military spending.

It was an incredible assertion - using two advisers as proxies, Mr Zelensky paid $75m (£59m) for two yachts.

But not only has the Ukrainian government flatly denied the story, the two ships in question have not even been sold.

Despite being false, the story reached members of the US Congress, where leaders say any decision on further aid to Ukraine will be delayed until next year.

Some are vehemently opposed to further support.

On X, formerly Twitter, Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said: "Anyone who votes to fund Ukraine is funding the most corrupt money scheme of any foreign war in our country's history."

She linked to a story containing the yacht rumour.

Tom Tillis, a Republican Senator and a supporter of military aid to Ukraine, spoke to CNN shortly after senators held a closed-door meeting with Mr Zelensky last week.

"I think the notion of corruption came up because some have said we can't do it, because people will buy yachts with the money," Mr Tillis said. "[Mr Zelensky] disabused people of those notions."

Mr Tillis has butted heads with another Republican Senator, J D Vance, who has also mentioned Mr Zelensky and ships in the same breath.

While discussing budget priorities on a podcast hosted by former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon, Mr Vance said: "There are people who would cut Social Security, throw our grandparents into poverty, why? So that one of Zelensky's ministers can buy a bigger yacht?"

Although the yacht rumour is false, the BBC has discovered the story was given a major boost by a Russia-linked website that pretends to be located in Washington.

It is, researchers say, a "likely purpose-built tool for narrative laundering with links to the Russian government".
The 'Washington' website with roots in Russia

The story first emerged in late November on an obscure YouTube channel - one with only a handful of followers and just a single video in its feed.

The next day, it was picked up by a site called DC Weekly, alongside pictures of the two yachts - called Lucky Me and My Legacy - and documents purportedly confirming the sale of the boats to Zelensky's associates.

But the luxury yacht brokers where both vessels are listed for sale said that the allegations are false. The sales documents appear to be forgeries. And instead of having been purchased by Zelensky or his close advisers, both Lucky Me and My Legacy are still up for sale.

The DC Weekly story touched off a blaze of online speculation, with multiple sources linking to the story and content citing the story across multiple platforms.

However, the site is not, as the name implies, a weekly publication - nor is it based in the US capital.

Research by Darren Linvill and Patrick Warren, disinformation researchers at Clemson University, shows that DC Weekly was started by John Mark Dougan, a former US Marine and Florida police officer who moved to Russia in 2016.

Mr Dougan spent three years as a deputy with the Palm Beach County Sheriff's office, then after he left in 2009 he started a website spreading rumours about his former employers.

Since moving to Russia he has reinvented himself as a journalist covering the invasion of Ukraine, and has spread a number of false and baseless claims - for example that Russia was attempting to destroy biological weapons labs.

DC Weekly, the Clemson researchers discovered, is full of news stories copied from other sites and rewritten by artificial intelligence engines. The site's "reporters" have fake names along with headshots copied from elsewhere on the internet.

Mixed in with the rewritten stories - apparently designed to give the site a sheen of legitimacy - are dubious original reports.

One such story was the origin of the yacht claim, and the Clemson researchers tracked how the story spread widely after DC Weekly published its version.

Evidence collected by the researchers indicates that the site continued to be connected to the same server as several of Mr Dougan's other websites. BBC Verify also found that part of the DC Weekly website is hosted on a server in Moscow.

Earlier this year Mr Dougan was identified as being a DC Weekly commentator when he gave several talks at an academy affiliated with the Russian Foreign Ministry.

"It is pretty obvious to me that Dougan has been involved with DC Weekly for a long time, and remains connected to the infrastructure behind it," Mr Warren said.

Mr Dougan said via text message that he "emphatically denies these assertions", and that he sold DC Weekly for $3,000 several years ago. He said he does not recall the person he sold it to and has lost the paperwork due to being kicked off payment platforms and losing access to email accounts because of financial sanctions against Russia. He says he has nothing to do with the site's current operations.

The researchers say the site is part of a much larger pro-Russia propaganda machine.

"Whether this one particular guy is behind it doesn't really matter much," Mr Warren said. "The key point is that it is an important element in a very substantial and effective pro-Russian influence operation that needs to be exposed and understood."

The Ukrainian President's Office said of the DC Weekly story: "All information in this article is fake. Zelensky and his family members do not and did not have any yachts."

Mr Tillis and Ms Greene were contacted for comment.

A spokesperson for Mr Vance said: "For years, everyone in the West recognised that Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Somehow everyone forgot that just as we started sending them billions of dollars in foreign aid."
Costume jewellery

The yacht story piles fictional stories onto existing concerns about corruption, which has been a long-running problem in Ukraine. Tackling it is one of the tests the country would have to pass to join Western institutions like the European Union.

According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, Ukraine ranks 116th out of 180 countries, although efforts in recent years have seen its position significantly improve.

But the attention given to the country's real and ongoing corruption issues has been mild compared to online chatter over false stories backed up by fake documents and shadowy social media accounts.

In October, a widely shared claim on social media stated that President Zelensky's wife spent a fortune on jewellery in New York while the Ukrainian president was in the city speaking to the United Nations.

Like the yacht rumour, this claim originated on a YouTube channel with very few followers and just one video. The video featured a woman who said she is from Benin. She claimed to work at Cartier on New York's Fifth Avenue.

The woman showed a receipt dated 22 September, with Mrs Zelensky's name on it and a bill for $1.1m for a bracelet, earrings and a necklace.

Facial recognition tools threw up a close match between the woman in the video and photos from social media profiles of a woman who lives in St Petersburg, Russia. When we looked at the pictures of the woman it appeared to be the same person as the one in the YouTube video.

The story went viral on Facebook, TikTok and Telegram. Russia's UK embassy X account shared it with the comment: "Best use of UK taxpayers money ever".

But the receipt is a clear fake. By 21 September, Mr and Mrs Zelensky had left New York and travelled to Canada.

One English-language site was instrumental in spreading the rumour - DC Weekly.

BBC Verify and the Clemson researchers found a number of DC Weekly articles posted between August and December this year that followed the same pattern.

The articles falsely alleged that Prince Andrew made a secret visit to Ukraine, that Ukraine provided weapons to Hamas, that an American non-profit organisation harvested organs in Ukraine and that Zelensky's administration allowed Western companies to use Ukrainian farmland for disposal of toxic waste.

Stories on DC Weekly were often published within days after allegations first appeared on YouTube.

In addition to DC Weekly, some of the allegations - including those about Cartier jewellery and yachts - also appeared on several pro-Kremlin English-language websites as well as legitimate news websites in Africa that accept "sponsored" (paid-for) content.

Some of the stories were picked up by other outlets and accounts. But with the story about the yachts, the people behind DC Weekly appear to have achieved a level of success that had previously eluded them - their allegations being repeated by some of the most powerful people in the US Congress.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67766964

[Geronimo]

I didn't identify the assassin, his own people already murdered a negotiator back when these peace talks were ongoing and probably why Putin agreed to keep the details secret. But yes, if Zelensky tried to make peace he'd likely be assassinated by the Ukrainian right wing and/or the USA or we'd offer our blessing like we did with the coup (assuming we didn't plan that too). If Putin wanted Zelensky dead he'd be dead.

The narrative of a massive counter attack decimating the Russian army advancing on Kiev is BS, they withdrew because they had a deal. Here's our deal: you get rich or you get dead. Not many people would choose the latter. Of all the main players in this who would kill Zelensky for refusing to do as told? Yeah, the Nazis and Joe Biden.

If Ukraine 'wins' Nazis will control the Donbas and Crimea thanks to us. That aint gonna happen. I wouldn't even inflict them on the rest of Ukraine. Why did we empower effing Nazis to run Ukraine? The place was already suffering from massive corruption. As for the deal:

"Arakhamia said that internationally mediated negotiations in Istanbul, shortly after the March 2022 talks in Belarus, actually produced an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to bring the fighting to an end—on the basis of those same points.

“[The Russians] were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality like Finland once did. And we were ready to make a commitment that we would not join NATO. When we returned from Istanbul, [then-British Prime Minister] Boris Johnson came to Kiev and said: ‘Do not sign anything with them at all; just go to war,’” Arakhamia said."

"According to Schroeder, the deal would have included four main points: The first was that Ukraine would abandon plans to join NATO. The second was that bans on the Russian language in Ukraine would be removed. The third was that Donbass would remain in Ukraine but function as an autonomous region. The fourth was that the U.N. and Germany would offer to supervise the security agreements. The Crimea situation was left to be addressed in the future."

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/u-s-repeatedly-blocked-ukraine-peace-deals-is-it-rethinking-its-strategy-yet/

Reagan called his terrorists freedom fighters, Obama called his moderate rebels. I never said the west had to arm ISIS, just that we did. The earliest we've admitted to arming ISIS is 2014 with Timber Sycamore and the dispersal of Libya's arsenal. By 2016 ISIS/AQ had taken half of Syria and Obama's moderate rebels were nowhere to be seen other than a little cubby hole up there on Turkey's border where the weapons were entering Syria, gee whiz Wally aint that a coincidink. Trump got elected and ended the policy of arming ISIS and let Russia attack them and within months they were pretty much gone.

the policy of arming ISIS never ended Berz.

Berz if you don't believe the narrative of a massive counter attack decimating the Russian army advancing on Kiev tell me how did Ukraine verifiably acquire so much war material that could only have come from Russia or even which has photo corroboration of a chain of custody that included clear Russian abandonment? Furthermore if Putin planned on keeping these peace agreements why bother invading in the first place, especially if Ukraine never decimated their forces anywhere? Did he judge denazification to be the same as a treaty obligation by Ukraine to never join NATO and adopt the Minsk accords? ...For the record there were never any bans on the Russian language to lift.

[Berzerker]

ISIS conquered half of Syria under Obama. Trump ended Timber Sycamore and within months ISIS lost nearly everything. Ukraine verified? lol. He invaded because his offers were repeatedly violated or rejected. After he invaded his next offer was taken seriously until Biden sent Boris in to kill the deal... and Ukraine.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/...ncerns-ukraine

[-Jrabbit]

You do realize, don't you, that your entire house of cards relies on the idea that Ukraine took orders and decided its future on the word of...Boris Johnson???

[Ming]

Again... please provide actual proof of any of that.
You keep stating that over and over again, but it doesn't make it any more true.
Putin started the war, NOT Biden. Putin invaded another country to grab more land. Fact.
The "people" he claimed to be saving were the the ones that suffered the most... being killed, raped and having their lives destroyed by Russian troops.
And even still for now, Putin's idea of peace/cease fire rests on him keeping land that Russia currently holds. That and Ukraine has to continue bending over to Russia.
Stop trying to make Putin the hero in this ugly and deadly war.

[Berzerker]

Azov (the Ukrainian right wing) and the USA give the orders, not Zelensky - he tried to pull Azov back in accordance with a peace deal and they told him to get lost and he did. The CIA had their backs, not his. When they no longer agree the USA will give the orders and Azov will end up like ISIS in Syria after Trump pulled the plug on Obama's moderate rebels. The west is killing 2 birds with 1 stone, kill Russians and kill Nazis. George Soros is a Ukrainian billionaire who lived thru the Nazis. Do you really think he likes Azov and wants Right Sector running Kiev long term? Ofc not, neither do we unless they're dying to kill Russians. We just had to kill Ukrainians first to get the Russians involved.

Obama started the war in 2014... He started a few wars, Libya, Yemen, Syria, god only knows what he did in the rest of Africa.

[Ming]

Yawn... more anti Democrat BS.
I guess you will never blame Putin for starting a war. You know, the country he invaded.
But he seems to be your White Knight/Herol

[Berzerker]

I wish I could speak fondly of Democrats, 20 years ago they were the lesser evil. The ones who voted against Bush's invasion of Iraq anyway (and special kudos to Barbara Lee for opposing the Afghan war, she deserves the Dem senate nomination in California for that alone). Trump opposed invading Iraq, but not Joe, not Hillary, they were lying us into the war just like Bush, Cheney, Rummy and Powell. These are war criminals. Hate is a strong word, but my family isn't dead because of these sociopaths.

[Ming]

You keep saying good things about Trump... you quote from alt right conspiracy sites, you use MAGA terms like "Brandon", you seem to trash Democrats, yet you claim you aren't a Trump supporter. RIGHT

And one more time... please PROVE that Biden started the Ukraine War. Oh that's right, just BS opinions you saw in a video.
Putin is to blame. FACT. But you position Putin as a hero. Total BS. He is the real war criminal.

[Berzerker]

Trump deserves credit for opposing Bush's invasion of Iraq, Hillary and Joe lied for Bush's invasion

[BlackCat]

Interesting video about Patriots, F-16 and shot down russian fighters

[BlackCat]

Oh, if you have some spare minutes, then there are also this little video :

[Geronimo]

it's over an hour. is there a transcript available?

[BlackCat]

Uhmn, yes, that's the standard size of Peruns videos, and no, I seriously doubt that there is a transcript - that would probably also take the same time to read and comprehend - so no, there are no Trumpish "easy read" version, you need to either eat the bullet or stay ignorant

[Geronimo]

you're selling yourself short if you don't think you can easily read a transcript 2-5x faster than the video version. Have you ever timed yourself reading a full transcript? You might be surprised.

[Berzerker]

You keep saying good things about Trump... you quote from alt right conspiracy sites, you use MAGA terms like "Brandon", you seem to trash Democrats, yet you claim you aren't a Trump supporter. RIGHT

And one more time... please PROVE that Biden started the Ukraine War. Oh that's right, just BS opinions you saw in a video.
Putin is to blame. FACT. But you position Putin as a hero. Total BS. He is the real war criminal.

Democrats were the lesser evil 20 years ago... Now they're warmongering, election rigging censors pushing vaccine mandates while claiming to be pro-choice. I didn't vote for Trump but I find defending him easy given the glass houses and sand castles of his accusers. The war started in 2014 when Obama backed a right wing coup and sent Nazis to kill Ukrainian protesters. But not just any protesters. Ever wonder why? In response to the coup Russia took Crimea. Why didn't Ukrainians flock to Crimea's defense against the invading horde? Well, Crimea didn't support the coup and Obama wouldn't allow it because Russia has its Black Sea fleet there.

Obama ran on a peace platform against Bush's war in Iraq (not Afghanistan, no peace 4 u, so sorry). I almost voted for him based on that alone. But then he started more wars than Bush and Democrats chose as his 2 successors the Senators who helped Bush lie us into the war, wtf. Hillary and Joe voted for Bush's war and Trump advised against it weeks before Bush gave the order. How did that turn out? It's not even a contest, Trump is the lesser evil and the Democrats are channeling Joe McCarthy, J Edgar Hoover and the Dulles brothers.

The heroes are the people who defended themselves from Nazis, Putin didn't send troops in for months after the war started and just enough to stop Azov's advance and get peace talks started.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

That guy is a hero to our Ukrainian friends

[Ming]

Again... you are taking the side of a war criminal who has invaded another country, with his troops killing and raping the people he claims to be protecting. It's a land grab... FACT.

And it is surprising you never post any of the crap Trump has done, but you keep posting all the made up crap about Biden you see on the internet, while continue to using the MAGA Brandon nick name.
Until you do, one can only assume that you are a Maga Trump supporter.
Feel free to attack him as much as the stuff you pull out of your ass against Biden. Oh, that's right, you never do attack him. I wonder why...

[Berzerker]

Is there a shortage of people posting about Trump's crap? Most of what the Democrats have claimed has turned out to be BS but Poly would be an echo chamber if I joined the chorus of misinformation

[Ming]

Most of the stuff you post is classic misinformation... made up conspiracy theories and absolute BS with no proof to support them, yet you continue to post them as if they were fact.
Like Biden would assassinate Zelenskyy...
Ray Epps was first a FBI plant... but then you switched to he was one of the Masterminds.
And many many more.

[Berzerker]

I never made that switch, my position has always been Epps worked for someone else and he bragged to his kin in Arizona about orchestrating the riot. Both can be true. We have video of him issuing instructions to 2 of the men breaching the barrier, that doesn't mean he has no one telling him what to do. Isn't it just a little strange how the Democrats never tried to accuse Epps of working for Trump? Why is that? Hmm... All these other characters are getting lengthy prison sentences for being the muscle behind Trump's insurrection but Epps is defended by Democrats and given a slap on the wrist when he's on video orchestrating the riot.